🤔 How come no one ever says ‘I’ve Got Monday On My Mind’? We’ve got a longer one today so if your Playbook is clipped in Gmail, we apologize.
PA Weather
☂️ Rochester | AM Showers, Cloudy, Breezy, 53
☀️ Carroll Valley | Mostly Sunny, 59
☁️ Hawley | Mostly Cloudy, slight chance of showers, 52
PA Sports
🏈 Penn State (6-0) | USC 33-30 (OT) | Oct 26 vs. Wisconsin
🏈 Pitt (6-0) | California 17-15 | Oct. 24 vs. Syracuse
🏈 Temple (1-5) | Sat vs. Tulsa
🏈 Eagles (4-2) | Cleveland 20-16 | Sun vs. NY Giants
🏈 Steelers (4-2) | Las Vegas 32-13 | Sun vs. NY Jets
⚽ Union (9-10-14) | Sat vs. Cincinnati
🏒 Penguins (1-2) | Toronto 2-4 | Mon vs. Montreal
🏒 Flyers (1-1) | Calgary 3-6 | Tue vs. Edmonton
👂 What We’re Hearing. “No GOP Senate candidate this year lives up to Winston Churchill’s famous injunction ‘Deserve Victory’ more than Dave McCormick,” the Senate Leadership Fund memo reads. But “McCormick still needs to close the gap with Trump on the ballot, and Trump needs to win.”
📊 PoliticsPA Polling Tracker (avg. of last 5 PA polls)
President: Harris +0.8% | Senate: Casey +3.7%
🗞️ Political News From THE Swing State. Where can you find all the latest news on what’s happening in Keystone State politics? Sign up for the PoliticsPA Playbook. We’ll deliver all the latest headlines in an easy-to-read format every weekday at 8 AM. And it’s free. Add your name to the list and subscribe now.
Top Story
1. Are Male Voters Reluctant to Vote For a Woman?
“The concern has been there all along, but now it’s being talked about openly: Are some men reluctant to vote for Democrat Kamala Harris because she’s a woman?
The vice president rarely references her gender on the campaign trail, but her key supporters are starting to make more direct appeals to male voters, hoping to overcome ingrained sexism — or just plain apathy — as Election Day looms.” (New Castle News)
Elsewhere
All the Candidates Will Be In Pennsylvania This Week. “Both candidates and their running mates will be in Pennsylvania this week, as polls continue to show the presidential race to be a dead heat in the Keystone State.” (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)
Six Trends That Could Decide Pennsylvania For Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. “Pennsylvania is unique in many ways — it’s closely divided, and it’s geographically diverse. It is also changing, according to an Inquirer analysis of election data.” (Philadelphia Inquirer)
Harris and Trump Vie For Jewish Voters Unsettled By Israel-Gaza Conflict. “The contest is particularly pronounced in Pennsylvania, home to about 400,000 Jews, more than four times Joe Biden’s margin in 2020.” (Washington Post)
Data Shows Migrants Aren’t Taking Jobs From Black or Hispanic People, Despite What Trump Says. “Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump promises the biggest deportation event the U.S. has ever seen if he is elected — a promise he has predicated, in part, on the notion that immigrants in the U.S. legally and illegally are stealing what he calls “Black jobs” and “Hispanic jobs.”” (PennLive)
The Pollster Who Sold Joe Biden to Gen Z Breaks Down the Youth Vote Today. “Late last month, Harvard’s Institute of Politics released its Youth Poll — the 48th survey of 18 to 29-year-old voters, and the first to test Kamala Harris against Donald Trump. The result was spectacular for the Democratic nominee, a 31-point lead when minor candidates were included. It was also not a clear indicator that she was the favorite in the race.” (Semafor)
State
2. Pennsylvania’s Top Election Official Reassures Voters While Fighting Misinformation
“Pennsylvania is the most pivotal battleground in the race for the White House. With its 19 electoral votes, it is the state where former President Trump and Vice President Harris are spending the most time and money – a combined $436 million between them and their allies.
It’s also where the results could take days to count, due to a state law that prevents mail in ballots from being processed early. The anticipated lag, which dragged out Pennsylvania’s count in 2020, now has election officials bracing for a repeat of conspiracy theories and violence.” (CBS News)
Elsewhere
Josh Shapiro Is Rewriting the Playbook. Will He Deliver a Win In Pennsylvania For Harris? “He won over rural voters in staunchly Republican areas and defeated his opponent in swing counties that Biden lost in 2020, a year that Shapiro was also on the ballot seeking reelection to attorney general. Democrats are hoping Shapiro, 51, can make lightning strike again.” (USA Today)
Swing-State Politics Is Rotting Our Brains and Harming Democracy. “Enough about fracking Pennsylvania!” (Slate)
Another Freedom Caucus Chair Fights For His Political Life. “Democrats are pouring money into taking down former House Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry (R-Pa.) — and this time, they just might succeed.” (Axios)
- Pennsylvania Republican Fights to Keep Seat In Tense House Battle. (The Hill)
Republican Lawsuits Target Rules For Overseas Voters, But Those Ballots Are Already Sent. “The latest method of voting to fall into the political crosshairs is the way overseas voters — including members of the military stationed abroad — cast their ballots.” (AP)
Internal Polling Memo Has Warning Signs For Senate Republicans. “The new round of October polling from the Senate Leadership Fund shows all but one Republican candidate running behind Donald Trump in battleground states, a pattern that could sharply limit their ability to build a sizable majority unless they can force a change in the final weeks of the election.” (POLITICO)
- Senate Rankings: 5 Seats Most Likely to Flip. (The Hill)
PA-01: What Voters Need to Know About Fitzpatrick and Ehasz. “Ashley Ehasz is challenging Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick in another bid to unseat the U.S. congressman.” (WHYY)
Around The Commonwealth
3. This Erie Union Leader Is the Kind of Voter Who Could Swing Presidential Race
“Ryan Sanders is the kind of voter whose support may ultimately decide the presidential race. A resident of Erie County in Pennsylvania, Sanders describes himself as “middle of the road”: He leans conservative, but he also said he tends to oscillate between either side of the center. In his early 40s, he’s young, like many swing voters. And above all, he said he wants a presidential candidate who is “honest” — a trait consistently prized by those who remain undecided.
There’s at least one thing that separates Sanders from other swing voters, though — a proud member of Sheet Metal Workers Local 12, he’s president of the Erie-Crawford Central Labor Council (CLC), the local arm of the AFL-CIO.” (Capital & Main)
Elsewhere
How Pittsburgh Became the Center of the Political Universe. “With 19 precious Electoral College votes at stake in Pennsylvania, the world’s two most-watched politicians have crisscrossed our area over the past several months, making it almost a second home as they duel for the presidency.” (Greensburg Tribune-Review)
Dominion Takes Responsibility For Luzerne County Mail-In Ballot Misspelling. “Dominion Voting Systems is taking responsibility for the misspelling of State Representative Alec Ryncavage’s last name on 6,700 mail-in ballots.” (WNEP)
Voter Deadlines Coming Up Soon in PA As Local Officials Get Ready For Election. “Oct. 21 is the last day to register in Pennsylvania before the election. Anybody who wants to apply for a mail-in or civilian absentee ballot must do so by Oct. 29.” (Johnstown Tribune-Democrat)
Questionable Expenses Mount For State Sen. Jimmy Dillon, Philly Democrat Up For Re-Election. “State Senator Jimmy Dillon, a Philadelphia Democrat, has dozens of questionable expenses in his official state spending reports as well as his campaign account, such as summertime gas fill-ups along the Jersey shore, expensive floral purchases, and expenses at bars and restaurants on Christmas Day and New Year’s Eve — but he isn’t talking about them.” (Broad + Liberty)
Where Do PA’s Candidates Stand on Climate Change? “Can Pennsylvania protect the environment and jobs? Princeton journalism students investigated how the major party federal and statewide candidates navigate this question. Here’s what they learned” (Philadelphia Citizen)
Election Guides
Editorial
4. What’s On Your Mind
- Would You Vote For Donald Trump … To Own the Steelers? (James B. Foley)
- What, Exactly, Is the ‘Swing Voter,’ and How Do They Vote? (Arthur Beckman)
- Voters Should Think Twice About Candidates Who Are Afraid to Meet The Press. (PennLive)
- Here’s Why So Many Republican Conservatives in Pennsylvania Are Supporting Kamala Harris. (Jim Greenwood and Ann Womble)
- How Each Party Can Win Pennsylvania in 2024. (Salena Zito)
- Obama’s Damage Control For Harris Won’t Work. (David Urban)
- Faces in the Trump Crowd. (Chris Kelly)
- PA Can Count Mail-In Votes Quickly, Calm Voters’ Worries – If Lawmakers Act Now. (Ed Rendell, Melissa Hart, Jim Gerlach and Keith McCall)
- Temple Football, We Love You, But We Have to Talk. (Dave Caldwell)
1 Thing
5. The October Monday Holiday
“Today is Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples Day, which President Biden commemorated as a national holiday for the first time in 2021 and has become widely adopted around the US. Depending on where you live, your state or city might honor one of the two holidays, both, or something else entirely (more than half of US states don’t recognize either day as an official state holiday).
As is the case with the other 10 federal holidays on the calendar, most banks will be closed, the USPS won’t deliver mail, and another generation of Americans will be introduced to The Price Is Right.” (Morning Brew)
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