Wagner has opportunity to improve his gubernatorial prospects

By Brad Grantz

PITTSBURGH – The eyes of the country might be on Pennsylvania’s presidential primary, but politicos are already looking ahead to the 2010 governor’s race. With Governor Ed Rendell limited to two terms, there’s a good chance the governor’s mansion may be occupied by a Pittsburgher for the first time since Dick Thornburgh in 1987.

Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, with nearly $2.3 million in his campaign committee's coffers, has been called the early front-runner. And although Onorato has support from several of Governor Rendell’s top associates, it isn’t stopping speculation that state auditor general and fellow Pittsburgher Jack Wagner might seek the governorship, too.

Onorato and Wagner have been coy about their ambitions, but both are already out on the hustings, raising money, and visiting with county Democratic organizations.

Political analysts suggest that the Democratic nominee -- whether it is Onorato, Wagner, state Senator Robert Mellow of Scranton or Lehigh County Executive Don Cunningham -- will need to convince committee members that they are the candidate best suited to top the ticket in 2010. Despite assurances that they are focused only on their current positions, Onorato and Wagner have hinted what their sales pitch to Democratic voters might sound like.

During a February speech to the Pennsylvania Press Club in Harrisburg, Onorato spent thirty minutes trumpeting his deft management, noting several economic development accomplishments and his handling of property taxes, which have not increased during his tenure.

In an interview, Wagner identified himself as “an independent fiscal watchdog” and ticked off a litany of performance audits including one of PHEAA, the state agency responsible for student loans. That audit, which reported spending by executives on lavish personal perks, began a clamor leading to the resignation of CEO Dick Willey.

“I’m a statewide elected official, not a regional official, who is focusing on good government and protecting taxpayer resources,” said Wagner.

Because Wagner is running for reelection, he holds the unique advantage of being able to increase his name identification, build a network of supporters, and craft a statewide image.

“The thing Jack Wagner wants to do is win big and show that he's a big vote-getter," said Franklin and Marshall professor G. Terry Madonna.

Wagner will likely spend between $1 and $1.5 million on reelection. More than half of that money will go toward media like direct mail and costly television commercials in the Philadelphia market, where nearly 40 percent of registered voters live.

Onorato, who breezed to reelection in 2007 without Republican opposition, is visiting other parts of the state like Northampton and Dauphin counties, according to his spokesperson Ashley Henry. Onorato maintains an active committee, employing two full-time staffers in Pittsburgh.

Onorato has made several trips to Philadelphia, where he has spent time meeting with the newly elected Mayor Michael Nutter.

"Dan has a great relationship with Mayor Nutter,” said Henry. “He and Dan have been looking for ways the two urban regions can work together in Harrisburg.”

She pointed out that Allegheny County and the City of Philadelphia operate similar departments, such as an airport, a community college, and sizable health and human-services agencies.

Right before Nutter handily defeated Republican Al Taubenberger last November, Onorato’s committee donated $10,000 to Nutter’s campaign.

Onorato isn’t actively seeking donations, according to Henry. His last fundraiser, a 60-person breakfast on March 7, adding an unknown sum to the $2.271 million he reported on December 30, 2007.

KDKA-TV money and politics editor Jon Delano said Democratic committee people may view Wagner as a credible nominee if he can end 2008 with $1 million on hand; he finished 2007 with $416,917. But closing the money gap with Onorato will be a daunting task for Wagner, partly because several of Rendell’s top rainmakers have lined up behind Onorato.

Said Delano: “Part of the mindgame is for Dan to raise considerable money to scare others off.”

While Rendell hasn't endorsed anyone, tacit support from some of his friends is one of the chief reasons Onorato is the putative front-runner.

One of Onorato’s donors is John Estey, the former gubernatorial chief of staff to Rendell. Estey, a friend and classmate of Onorato’s during their time together at Pitt Law School, now directs the government-relations practice at Ballard Spahr, a Philadelphia law firm which once employed Rendell.

David Cohen, an influential lobbyist for Comcast, served as mayoral chief of staff for Rendell. Last year he donated $2,500 to Onorato’s campaign and hosted a reception for him at Citizens Bank Park in November. Comcast's PAC gave $5,000, as well as $500 to Wagner's committee in 2006.

Onorato's committee has no plans to register with the Commonwealth, according to Henry. That means potential challengers will learn very little about Onorato's finances until December 31, 2008, when Allegheny County requires a year-end report to be filed.

While both men work to expand their profiles outside of southwestern Pennsylvania, Onorato must also avoid political gaffes, like the backlash to a ten-percent levy on poured alcoholic beverages used to fund public transit. Since the tax’s inception, Onorato has attempted to find an alternative source of revenue for the county’s $30 million obligation to the Port Authority.

“The drink tax has definitely affected the public’s reflection on Dan Onorato. However, better for it to happen in spring 2008 than spring of 2010,” said Delano.

If the drink tax issue is unresolved, Wagner would likely use it to his advantage. In December, his department released a performance audit of the maligned transit agency. The report recommended that state elected officials appoint four people to the Authority’s executive board, because 55 percent of the agency’s operating budget comes from state coffers. Today, the chief executive appoints all nine members, who must be approved by the county council.

The report wasn’t well-received by Onorato, reminding observers of the coarse history he shares with Wagner. In 1994, Wagner defeated Onorato in an acrimonious campaign for a state senate seat. Both men have said since that the hatchet has been buried.

There is one wild card that both Onorato and Wagner must be worried about, however.

“If I were Onorato or Wagner, my greatest fear would be a Philadelphian of some stature and wealth,” said Madonna.

Onorato and Wagner could split the western Pennsylvania vote while a wealthy Philadelphian could win the southeastern part of the state, picking up a plurality of voters and stealing the election in a three-way race.

Madonna doesn't expect that “wealthy Philadelphian” to be Democratic mayoral candidate Tom Knox. When propositioned by the state Democratic Party to run for a state row office, Knox passed.

Brad Grantz is a reporter living in Pittsburgh. He can be reached at grantz@gmail.com.