Exactly how many people will be impacted by the new Voter ID law? It’s tough to tell. Data released by the Department of State and the Department of Transportation have been less than precise. But look below, and see how the numbers we have shake out in congressional, state house house and state Senate districts.
With just one exception, Democrats represent each of the districts with the highest rates of voters who lack PennDOT ID: the top 5 in Congress, the top 10 in the state Senate, and 19 of the top 20 in the state House, including each of the 8 House districts where over 50 percent of voters in 8 districts lack PennDOT ID. Republicans represent the 5 seats in Congress, 5 seat in the state Senate, and 10 seats in the state House with the lowest rates of voters who lack ID.
The sole exception is Rep. John Taylor, whose Philadelphia district has the 18th highest rate of voters who lack PennDOT ID. He voted in favor of the Voter ID law. Every state Senate and House Democrat who voted on the law voted against it.
These numbers are based on two sets of data: one from the Department of State, the other from the Department of Transportation. An early comparison of the two lists suggested that a surprisingly high number of PA voters – 758,000 – lack PennDOT ID.
However, there are some problems with that figure (as Department of State officials have noted repeatedly). The initial list of voters without ID was generated by comparing the state’s voter rolls with the PennDOT database. About 758,000 people (9.2 percent of PA voters) are registered to vote who don’t have a PennDOT ID. Some of those are students who have since left PA, some have other forms of ID like passports, military IDs, student IDs, and more.
Still more appeared on the list due to a slight mismatch between their name as it appears at DOS versus their name as it appears at PennDOT.
For example, Congressman Lou Barletta appears on the list of roughly 758,000 PA registered voters who supposedly don’t have photo ID. But a quick check with his office confirms that he indeed has a PA driver’s license. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported on this problem Sunday.
A few days ago, the Department of Transportation released a new list: voters who do have PennDOT ID, but will have been expired for over a year by election day (the new law allows the use of PennDOT IDs for up to a year after they’ve expired). That list numbers 906,000 (roughly 11 percent of PA voters) and is very accurate.
The lists below are based on the combination of both sets of data, which are unfortunately the best available.
The district-by-district breakdown comes from the AFL-CIO’s data team, which has done its fair share to bolster criticism of the voter ID law. The figures below represent a combination of the initial list of 758,000 plus the newer list of 906,000.
Here are the PA House and Senate districts with the highest and lowest rates of voters who lack ID.
Congressional Districts: 5 Highest Rates of Voters With No ID
CD-2. 45.6 percent. Incumbent Rep. Chaka Fattah faces a long shot challenge from Republican Robert Mansfield in this heavily Democratic Philadelphia district
CD-1. 39.8 percent. This is Rep. Bob Brady’s district based in Philadelphia and Delaware County. He faces long shot challenger, 2011 Philly mayoral hopeful John Featherman.
CD-14. 30.9 percent. Almost all of Rep. Mike Doyle’s district is in Allegheny County, including the city of Pittsburgh and much of the Mon Valley. He faces long shot Republican Hans Lessman in the general.
CD-13. 23.9 percent. Rep. Allyson Schwartz represents southern Montgomery and northeastern Philadelphia. She’s a strong favorite against Republican Joe Rooney.
CD-17. 19.2 percent. The primary action in this district happened in the Democratic primary, when attorney Matt Cartwright defeated incumbent Rep. Tim Holden. He’s a heavy favorite against Tea Party leader Laureen Cummings in a district that now includes Scranton and Wilkes-Barre.
Congressional Districts: 5 Highest Rates of Voters With No ID Among Seniors
These are the same as the 5 highest overall, though not in the same order.
CD-1. 46.4 percent
CD-2: 46.2 percent
CD-14. 37.4 percent
CD-13. 32.0 percent
CD-17. 27.7 percent
Congressional Districts: 5 Lowest Rates of Voters With No ID
CD-6. 11.9 percent. Rep. Jim Gerlach faces a well funded challenger in Democrat Manan Trivedi. The district includes parts of Berks, Chester, Lebanon and Montgomery counties.
CD-8. 12.3 percent. Kathy Boockvar is Democrats’ top congressional challenger in PA; she’s facing Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick in a district that comprises all of Bucks and a small part of Montgomery County.
CD-10. 13.1 percent. Freshman Rep. Tom Marino’s district, comprising parts or all of 15 counties in northeast PA, is favorable to his re-election effort against Democrat Phil Scollo.
CD-18. 14.5 percent. Rep. Tim Murphy (R-Allegheny) faces a serious challenger in Democrat Larry Maggi in this southwest PA district.
CD-7. 15.2 percent. Freshman Rep. Pat Meehan faces Democrat George Badey in this district that scrambles parts of several counties in the Philadelphia suburbs.
State Senate Districts: 10 Highest Rates of Voters With No ID
SD-3. 48.5 percent. Sen. Shirley Kitchen (D-Philadelphia) is unopposed for re-election.
SD-2. 45.5 percent. Sen. Tina Tartaglione (D-Philadelphia) easily won re-election in 2010.
SD-7. 43.3 percent. Sen. Vincent Hughes (D-Philadelphia) is unopposed for re-election.
SD-8. 42.8 percent. Sen. Tony Williams (D-Philadelphia) easily won re-election in this district in 2010; in comprises parts of Philadelphia and Delaware counties.
SD-1. 39.6 percent. Sen. Larry Farnese (D-Philadelphia) is a heavy favorite for re-election.
SD-38. 33.1 percent. Sen. Jim Ferlo (D-Allegheny) was unopposed for re-election in 2010.
SD-4. 31.0 percent. Sen. Leanna Washington (D-Philadelphia) was unopposed for re-election in 2010. She represents parts of Montgomery and Philadelphia counties.
SD-5. 29.3 percent. Sen. Mike Stack (D-Philadelphia) faces Michael Tomlinson in this Dem-heavy district.
SD-42. 27.8 percent. Sen. Wayne Fontana (D-Allegheny) was unopposed for re-election in 2010.
SD-43. 27.7 percent. Sen. Jay Costa (D-Allegheny), the Senate Minority Leader, is unopposed for re-election.
State Senate Districts: 5 Highest Rates of Voters With No ID Among Seniors
These are the same as the 5 highest overall, though not in the same order.
SD-2. 52.7 percent.
SD-3. 52.4 percent.
SD-1. 49.6 percent.
SD-7. 45.6 percent.
SD-8. 45.3 percent.
State Senate Districts: 5 Lowest Rates of Voters With No ID
SD-33. 9.9 percent. Sen. Rich Alloway (R-Franklin) is opposed for re-election in this heavily Republican south central PA district by write-in Dem Bruce Neylon.
SD-48. 10.3 percent. Sen. Mike Folmer (R-Lebanon) cruised to re-election in 2010.
SD-39. 10.5 percent. Sen. Kim Ward (R-Westmoreland) is unopposed for re-election.
SD-10. 11.5 percent. Sen. Chuck McIlhinney (R-Bucks) won re-election by 20 points in 2010.
SD-36. 11.8 percent. Sen. Mike Brubaker (R-Lancaster) was unopposed in 2010.
State House Districts: 20 Highest Rates of Voters With No ID
HD-180. 58.4 percent. Rep. Angel Cruz (D-Philadelphia) is unopposed for re-election.
HD-181. 57.9 percent. Rep. W. Curtis Thomas (D-Philadelphia) is unopposed for re-election.
HD-197. 57.5 percent. J.P. Miranda is a heavy favorite over Republican Steve Crum for the seat of former Rep. Jewell Williams (D-Philadelphia).
HD-188. 57.3 percent. Rep. James Roebuck (D-Philadelphia) is a heavy favorite for re-election.
HD-190. 56.8 percent. Rep. Vanessa Brown (D-Philadelphia) is unopposed for re-election.
HD-195. 52.9 percent. Rep. Michelle Brownlee (D-Philadelphia) is upposed for re-election.
HD-186. 51.1 percent. Jordan Harris is unopposed for the seat of former Rep. now City Councilman Kenyatta Johnson (D-Philadelphia).
HD-19. 50.9 percent. Rep. Jake Wheatley (D-Allegheny) is unopposed for re-election in this Pittsburgh district.
HD-179. 49.9 percent. Rep. Tony Payton (D-Philadelphia) was knocked from the primary ballot, leaving James Clay unopposed.
HD-201. 47.7 percent. Stephen Kinsey is unopposed for the seat of outgoing Rep. John Myers (D-Philadelphia).
HD-191. 47.4 percent. Rep. Ronald Waters (D-Philadelphia) is unopposed for re-election.
HD-198. 45.9 percent. Rep. Rosita Youngblood (D-Philadelphia) is unopposed for re-election.
HD-192. 44.2 percent. Rep. Louise Bishop (D-Philadelphia) is unopposed for re-election.
HD-24. 43.6 percent. Ed Gainey defeated Rep. Joe Preston (D-Allegheny) in the Democratic primary and he’s unopposed in the general election.
HD-184. 41.6 percent. Rep. William Keller (D-Philadelphia) is unopposed for re-election.
HD-175. 39.9 percent. Rep. Mike O’Brien (D-Philadelphia) is unopposed for re-election.
HD-127. 39.5 percent. Rep. Thomas Caltagirone (D-Berks) is unopposed for re-election.
HD-177. 39.3 percent. Rep. John Taylor (R-Philadelphia) faces a serious challenge from William Dunbar.
HD-159. 39.1 percent. Rep. Thaddeus Kirkland (D-Delaware) faces James Schiliro in this heavily Democratic district.
HD-203. 38.1 percent. Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) is unopposed for re-election.
State House Districts: 10 Highest Rates of Voters With No ID Among Seniors
All 10 are among the 20 highest districts overall.
HD-180. 67.1 percent.
HD-181. 63.6 percent.
HD-186. 60.8 percent.
HD-197. 59.5 percent.
HD-190. 58.9 percent.
HD-179. 57.0 percent.
HD-195. 56.6 percent.
HD-184. 56.0 percent.
HD-19. 55.5 percent.
HD-188. 52.1 percent.
State House Districts: 10 Lowest Rates of Voters With No ID
HD-86. 7.7 percent. State Rep. Mark Keller (R-Perry) is unopposed for re-election.
HD-130. 8.0 percent. State Rep. David Maloney (R-Berks) rode the GOP wave in 2010 and bested incumbent David Kessler. This year, he faces Russell Diesinger.
HD-102. 8.2 percent. State Rep. Rosemarie Swanger (R-Lebanon) is unopposed for re-election.
HD-129. 8.3 percent. State Rep. Jim Cox (R-Berks) faces Erik Saar this fall in a GOP-leaning district.
HD-37. 8.4 percent. Mindy Fee is a favorite to take the seat of outgoing Rep. Thomas Creighton (R-Lancaster). She faces Democrat Russell Stahley.
HD-90. 9.0 percent. Rep. Todd Rock (R-Franklin) is unopposed for re-election.
HD-82. 9.1 percent. Rep. Adam Harris (R-Juniata) is unopposed for re-election.
HD-84. 9.2 percent. Rep. Garth Everett (R-Lycoming) is unopposed for re-election.
HD-134. 9.4 percent. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lehigh) won a special election in April; his one-time Dem opponent has dropped from the race and his fall opponent is yet to be named.
HD-187. 9.5 percent. Rep. Gary Day (R-Lehigh) is seeking re-election against Democrat Joseph Haas. Day won by a 4.5 point margin in 2008.