Altmire Poll: Altmire Increases Lead Despite Court Challenge

A freshly released internal poll from Jason Altmire’s campaign shows the Democrat with a 55 to 31 point lead. The poll’s release is intended to combat the notion that Mark Critz’s recent challenge to Altmire’s nominating petitions diminished his standing in the district.

It’s a jump from Altmire’s January internal poll, which showed him leading 50 to 34. Critz’s campaign released its own poll in February which showed Altmire leading 47 to 37 percent.

But the main purpose of the poll was to dismiss the notion that Critz’s challenge to Altmire’s nominating petitions had hurt him.

“It squashes rumors that the court challenge cut into Jason’s support,” said Altmire spokesman Richard Carbo. “This poll shows that more damage was actually done to Critz.

Indeed a significant portion of the polling memo deals with the court case.

40 percent of respondents agreed with the statement that Critz was, “playing dirty politics that I find distasteful,” while 33 percent disagreed. In Altmire’s portion of the district, Critz’s unfavorable rose from 6 percent in January to 17 percent today.

Altmire, meanwhile, has strengthened his base of support. His lead in his current portion of the district has grown from 49 points (66 percent Altmire / 17 percent Critz) to 61 points (73 percent Altmire / 12 percent Critz).

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=400 live telephone interviews with likely 2012 primary election voters in the 12th district. Interviews were conducted between March 12-14, 2012. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout.  The margin of error is + 4.9 percent for all voters and higher for subgroups.

Here’s the full memo:

Since January, Jason Altmire has increased his lead in the Democratic primary for the newly-drawn 12th CD in Pennsylvania. Critz’s attempt to decide the election via a lawsuit has backfired on him, and Altmire  has moved from a 16-point lead in January (50 percent Altmire / 34 percent Critz) to a 24-point lead today (55 percent Altmire / 31 percent Critz).

Altmire has grown his lead by 8 points and has made big gains with his current constituents.

• Altmire has moved from a 16-point lead in January (50 percent Altmire / 34 percent Critz) to a 24-point lead
today (55 percent Altmire / 31 percent Critz).
• Much of these gains came among voters who live in Altmire’s current district. Among these
Democrats, who make up 64 percent of the likely primary electorate, his lead has grown from 49 points
(66 percent Altmire / 17 percent Critz) to 61 points (73 percent Altmire / 12 percent Critz).

Critz’s legal tactics have driven up his negatives, especially among Altmire’s current constituents.

• Voters who said they were following the lawsuit story very closely were turned off by Critz’s
tactics. 49 percent of them say they believe Critz was “playing dirty politics that I find distasteful”,
while 45 percent disagreed.

• Altmire’s constituents were also against Critz trying to deny their current Congressman the ballot  through the courts. 40 percent say they believe Critz was “playing dirty politics that I find distasteful”, while 33 percent disagreed.

• Critz’s legal tactics have damaged him among voters in Altmire’s current district.
o His unfavorable rating among them has gone from 6 percent in January to 17 percent today.
o At the same time, his favorable rating among them has remained unchanged at 21 percent.
Altmire’s own popularity has increased at the same time Critz’s negatives have gone up.

• Altmire’s standing among voters has improved since our last poll, from 57 percent favorable / 17 percent
unfavorable in January to 64 percent favorable / 15 percent unfavorable today.
• Altmire’s intense positive ratings have increased and are now significantly higher than Critz’s.
o In January, 18 percent of voters viewed Altmire very favorably, compared with 15 percent for Critz.
o Today, 28 percent of voters view Altmire very favorably, compared with 19 percent for Critz

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=400 live telephone interviews with likely 2012 Primary Election voters in PA CD-12. Interviews were conducted between March 12-14, 2012. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout.  The margin of error is + 4.9 percent for all voters and higher for subgroups.

March 16th, 2012 | Posted in Congress, Front Page Stories, Poll, Top Stories | 4 Comments

4 thoughts on “Altmire Poll: Altmire Increases Lead Despite Court Challenge”

  1. Altmire is the Western PA version of the Etch-A-Sketch candidate. If you buy Altmire’s rants and pitches, just shake him up and by January, 2013,
    he will turn into an elephant.

  2. SWPAnnA says:

    Appearing frequently on Fox News (where I only went after discerning that I could NOT rely on NBC or CNN to deliver anything journalistic) has burnished Jason’s credentials as a true fiscal conservative with a moderate social position. His exactly-in-the-middle voting record lets MOST cnstituents feel they’re being represented rather than being commandeered by either party.

  3. Chet royer says:

    What would you expect an Altmire poll to say? Critz on deck.

  4. Dom L. says:

    +24 with 5 weeks to go. Well this one’s over.

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