Two new polls showed Pennsylvania’s Democratic Senate primary tightening as the campaign entered its final two weeks Tuesday, the outcome likely to hinge on TV advertising barrages and the mysteries of voter turnout in a midterm election.

Sen. Arlen Specter led Rep. Joe Sestak 47 percent to 39 percent among likely primary voters in a Quinnipiac University survey, but the incumbent’s advantage had shrunk 13 percentage points from the school’s last poll April 7.

The poll, which was conducted Friday through Sunday, comes three weeks after Sestak began running statewide television ads, raising his profile beyond his Delaware County-based congressional district.

A Muhlenberg College/Morning Call daily tracking poll Tuesday showed an even closer race, with 46 percent of likely Democratic voters surveyed backing Specter and 42 percent behind Sestak. Eleven percent were undecided.

“Mothers tell their children that money doesn’t buy you happiness,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac’s Polling Institute. “Perhaps, but money buys name identification, and that can buy political victory.”

Sestak has spent an estimated $2.4 million on broadcast and cable TV ads since April 21, compared with $2.9 million for Specter.

Specter’s campaign also got an infusion of about $407,000 over the last week from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to augment its own ad spending – one of the advantages of being endorsed by the White House and the entire party establishment. The DSCC has committed about $700,000 to the Specter effort, Democratic sources said.

Specter, 80, is seeking a sixth term, running for the first time as a Democrat. He switched from the Republican Party last year after his crucial vote for President Obama’s $787 billion stimulus caused a backlash among the Republican base that threatened his ability to win a primary.

Read the rest of Tom Fitzgerald’s piece in today’s Inquirer

Tags: Arlen Specter, Arlen Specter for Senate, Joe Sestak, Joe Sestak for Senate, Sestak Specter poll, Specter Sestak poll

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