Republican Congressional candidate Tim Burns has a slight advantage, 43 percent to 41 percent, over Democrat Mark Critz in the special election battle to succeed the late U.S. Rep. John Murtha, according to an internal poll from the Burns campaign and NRCC released Thursday.

The survey, conducted by GOP polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, also reports Burns has a significant advantage among those most likely to vote. It says among those “extremely likely” to vote, the Republican leads Critz 45 percent to 41 percent. Those who could identify the date of the primary election, 40 percent of the electorate, favor the Washington County man 49 percent to 42 percent, it reports.

“Despite a two-to-one registration advantage for Democrats, GOP candidate Tim Burns is gaining significant momentum because of his record as a job creator, his commitment to repeal President Obama’s healthcare law and his values as a true conservative leader,” said NRCC spokesman Tory Mazzola. “Speaker Pelosi is bankrolling Mark Critz’s campaign because she knows that he’ll be a reliable vote and because it’s clear to her that failing in a historically Democrat seat would be disastrous for her liberal agenda.”

Like a Democratic internal poll released earlier this week, the survey didn’t reveal what questions were asked, meaning there’s no way to verify if they were skewed to favor Burns.

That said, the plethora of polls on the race have made it clear the contest is near a statistical dead heat fewer than two weeks before the May 18 election. An array of polls — independent, Democratic, and Republican — have shown everything from Critz with an 8-point lead to Burns up 6.

Thursday’s poll also underscores the fact that turnout on May 18, the same day as the state’s primary, could determine which candidate wins. Although Democrats would appear to have an advantage on this front because of competitive gubernatorial and U.S. Senate primaries, neither race has drawn much attention from the average voter, and most expect turnout to be low.

Tags: Mark Critz, Mark Critz for congress, Tim Burns, Tim Burns for congress

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