By Alex Roarty
PoliticsPA Staff Writer
roarty@politicspa.com
Despite publicly denying he was interested in the seat, Republican state Senator Dave Argall is still seriously considering running against Democrat Tim Holden in the 17th Congressional District, multiple sources with direct knowledge of the situation tell PoliticsPA.
“I know that he is giving it strong consideration and I wouldn’t rule it out,” said one Republican official familiar with Argall’s thinking.
“I say he runs.”
The state senator said in mid-November, when news of his interest first broke, that he was “99 percent sure” he wouldn’t run for the seat. He acknowledged he had met with party leaders in Washington about a campaign, but insisted that the GOP needed to look elsewhere to find an opponent for Holden.
His public statement did little to quell private speculation. Republican insiders in the district continued to insist he might run, speculation that only increased while Argall continued exploring a campaign.
They point to an array of reasons why 2010 is the perfect opportunity for the senator to challenge Holden, an incumbent since 1992. Argall, a former House lawmaker who was elected to the state Senate earlier this year in a special election, doesn’t face re-election until 2012. He could safely campaign for congress while saving his seat there. The political climate might also be primed for Republican challengers, and the district’s makeup will likely change after re-districting, which could weaken any future campaign.
But the overriding impetus for Argall’s candidacy, insiders say, is the belief that he is the only Republican candidate who could defeat the well-entrenched and well-liked Holden. Argall is from Schuylkill County, a voter-rich Holden stronghold, and would be well-positioned to attract voters there.
One Republican insider from the district said Schuylkill County voters are most interested in voting for a local politician, irrespective of ideology. He said, at minimum, Argall could attract 45 percent of the vote there, a share much higher than previous Republican candidates.
Splitting the vote in Schuylkill County, while winning conservative areas like Lebanon, Perry and northern Berks County, is more than enough to defeat Holden, he said.
“Argall being from Schuylkill County, that’s the silver bullet that kills Tim Holden,” the insider said.
The district favored Republican Presidential Candidate John McCain over Democrat Barack Obama by 3 percentage points last year, although Holden cruised to victory over a lower-tier candidate.
Holden won’t be easy to defeat. The “Blue Dog” Democrat has crafted a moderate record, including a “no” vote against his party’s health care reform bill in November. He’s considered by many a hard worker who stays in touch with his district and consequently, despite being a Democrat in a moderate district, hasn’t faced a serious challenge in years.
Tags: Dave Argall, Tim Holden
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If Argall runs it assures another two years of Tim Holden. No matter what the Jurassic GOP state party hacks say, Dave can’t beat Tim in Schuylkill county and he’s unknown in the rest of the district — but he will be. Argall voted for the infamous pay raise in the PA legislature. You think that might come up?
Argall can’t show his face in Lebanon County — you know, the part of the district that fired Chip Brightbill and Pete Zug for voting for the pay raise. He’s toast for the same reason in all of the Perry and Berks parts of the district (Brightbill’s former senatorial district overlaps with the 17th in Berks), and most of Dauphin.
Dave may take a few votes from Holden in Schuylkill, but he’ll lose there, too, and he’ll fall far short in the rest of the district.
Put a fork in him — and the party, too, if they squander the polical energy in the district on a plain vanilla, none-risk taking nonentity like Dave Argall.
At the end of the day, Argall is a conventional politician, only with an R rather than a D behind his name. Voters are a lot brighter than the state committee, for sure.
The reason it’s hard to get rid of Holden is because he isn’t super liberal. He’s a blue dog in a largely conservative district and will break with the party if enough of his constituents call him up and ask hm to vote a certain way. He doesn’t piss off the people he represents. He really does represent them. That’s the way it should be.
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