By Alex Roarty
PoliticsPA Staff Writer
roarty@politicspa.com
HARRISBURG — Another poll, another indication Tom Corbett is the undisputed, though early, gubernatorial front-runner.
The Republican attorney general leads U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach 38 percent to 12 percent in a primary matchup, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday. The findings are in sync with other polls on the race showing Corbett with a big lead.
Corbett’s early strength is a result of his relatively high name ID statewide, where half of voters, and two-thirds of Republicans, know who he is. No other candidate, Democratic or Republican, has name ID higher than 30 percent, according to the poll.
The one bright spot for Gerlach and fellow GOP gubernatorial challenger Sam Rohrer is still nearly half the Republican electorate have not made up their minds.
Corbett holds similarly large leads over three Democratic challengers, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, Auditor General Jack Wagner and Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel.
He leads Onorato 45 percent to 30 percent, Wagner 43 percent to 33 percent, and Hoeffel 46 percent to 30 percent.
In a Democratic primary matchup among the five candidates, including former Philadelphia mayoral candidate Tom Knox and Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty, Onorato leads with just 14 percent.
The low name recognition for each of the candidates in the Democratic field is “very unusual,” according to Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
“Wide-open understates how open this race is,” Brown told reporters during a question-and-answer session in the Capitol. “This is a race that has not even formed in terms of public opinion.”
The lack of a clear front-runner in the Democratic primary seems to favor the candidates with the most money, Onorato and Knox. The Allegheny County executive has already raised $6 million, and Knox has vowed to use his personal wealth for his campaign.
“Money doesn’t always matter … but in a situation like this, money matters a lot, especially on the Democratic side where they’re all unknown,” Brown said
Hoeffel finishes second in the poll of the Democratic field, with 8 percent. Wagner was a 7 percent, Doherty 6 percent, and Knox 5 percent. Fifty-nine percent of voters reportedly hadn’t made up their minds.
But despite each candidate’s statewide anonymity, whoever emerges as the Democratic nominee shouldn’t worry about name recognition if they face Corbett, Brown said. The gubernatorial campaign will receive plenty of attention by November.
“It’s a pretty good bet by next November, Tom Corbett’s name ID won’t be much higher,” he said.
Click here to read the entire poll.
Tags: Chris Doherty, Dan Onorato, Governor campaign, Jack Wagner, Jim Gerlach, Joe Hoeffel, Sam Rohrer, Tom Corbett, Tom Knox
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I am surprised how high the negatives for Onorato are in his backyard of Allegheny and Southwest. Hoeffel does considerably better in his own neighborhood and matches up better in the SE against Corbett. Wagner is actually strongest against Corbett in the Allegheny and SW regions and that helps explain why his deficit is only 10 points versus the 15 points of the other guys.
Corbett does quite well in the Southeast as he did in the past two elections. Gerlach also has a shot at the SE.
isn’t it interesting that in the southwest where corbett should be strongest, he’s losing to both wagner and danny boy? no one really knows wagner or onorato in the other parts of the state. corbett’s lead in the southeast won’t hold up with those numbers, we all know that, which means his statewide lead will evaporate or turn into a deficit as these Dems make their way around the state and people begin to focus on the race.
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