By Alex Roarty
PoliticsPA Staff Writer
roarty@politicspa.com
It’s Pennsylvania’s first statewide race since President Barack Obama’s crushing victory here last year, but should analysts draw conclusions about where the state now stands politically based on one relatively low-profile judicial campaign?
Yes, says Muhlenberg College pollster Chris Borick, but only with the understanding that the results won’t make a perfect political barometer.
The judicial race is closely monitored by activists, Borick said, so the results could show which party’s base is more motivated. But the general electorate will mostly ignore it, he said, and what voters think about a judicial candidate doesn’t necessarily translate to how they feel about someone running for Congress or governor.
“What happens in this race isn’t a perfect indicator,” he said.
Democrat Jack Panella faces Republican Joan Orie Melvin for the court’s final spot, a position that will decide the ideological tilt of a, for now, evenly split court, 3-3.
The race is and has been each state party’s No. 1 priority, despite potentially game-changing Senate and gubernatorial campaigns in 2010. High-profile 2010 candidates usually at least pay lip-service to the judicial battles even while trying to tout their own campaigns.
Next year’s races, which already receive much more media attention, includes Republican Senate candidate Pat Toomey likely taking on the winner of the primary between Democrats Joe Sestak and Arlen Specter. Republicans Jim Gerlach and Tom Corbett are battling for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, and the Democratic field includes Dan Onorato, Chris Doherty, Tom Knox, Jack Wagner, and Joe Hoeffel.
Republicans frame the race as voters’ first chance to voice displeasure with President Barack Obama’s administration, Specter’s party-switch, and the 101-day budget impasse that occurred on Democratic Governor Ed Rendell’s watch. Polls of generic ballots between Democrats and Republicans already show the margins tightening from their 2006 and 2008 levels, when Democrats were riding high, said Luke Bernstein, executive director of the state GOP.
“This win would carry us into next year and provide momentum in the gubernatorial and Senate races,” he told PoliticsPA.com.The party has little momentum now.
John McCain lost here by more than 10 percentage points last year, and the party’s gubernatorial candidate, Lynn Swann, and Senate candidate, Rick Santorum, were crushed in 2006, the same year the party lost control of the state House.
The GOP has won several low-profile special elections this year and continued to dominate the Senate, but a statewide victory would provide an emotional lift, particularly for the activists and party officials working daily with the GOP. And if they win, it could be an indication their political fortunes are turning, at least a little bit.
“I think you walk away with the signal the GOP might be looking at better days ahead in Pennsylvania,” Borick said.
Abe Amoros, communications director for the Democratic Party, said he’s confident of victory in the Supreme Court race but downplayed its importance as a political indicator. Pundits will draw conclusions regardless, he said, but next year’s races are a “completely different dynamic.”
“It’s all going to be indicative of how each party does in terms of turnout,” Amoros said. “Next year turnout is expected to be much, much higher.”
For Democrats, it will also be the first time to see if new constituencies that became involved in Obama’s campaign turnout during another statewide race. Although the party continues to hold a 1.2 million voter-registration advantage, the race is expected to be close.
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