Rothenberg calls Pa. ‘the state to watch in 2010′
By Sean Coit
PoliticsPA
sean@politicspa.com
Legendary political handicapper Stu Rothenberg spoke with PoliticsPA to discuss the 2010 races in Pennsylvania, which he expects to be among the closest nationwide. Pennsylvania, he said, appears likely to follow the right-leaning nationwide trend, much to the benefit of Republicans desperate to regain crucial seats in the state.
“Pennsylvania is the state to watch in 2010,” Rothenberg said. “There are certainly two competitive house races in the Southeastern portion of the state, and I can imagine the Carney race developing though it’s not there now. Republicans are talking about Altmire, and I can imagine that developing, so I think PA is one of the biggies.”
Beyond the basic importance of the seats to be contested in 2010 (Governor, Senate, several important House seats), the players involved in the races will make Pennsylvania’s political environment even more interesting in the coming months.
“The Texas republican gubernatorial primary has the makings of a bloodbath, but the Democratic Senate primary in Pa. certainly rivals it, and may exceed it,” Rothenberg said. “You know that both Sestak and Specter personally can be very, very tough, and they both can be ornery. Given the unique situation of Specter switching parties, it has the makings of a real bloodbath.”
The candidacies of Tom Corbett (Governor) and Pat Meehan (Joe Sestak’s 7th District) will add to the drama of those races, but the Senate race is likely to dominate Pennsylvania’s political discussion throughout the campaigns. Though the Democratic primary promises to be exciting, the general election, almost certain to feature Pat Toomey as the GOP nominee, could be even more interesting.
“I think Toomey folks in Washington have kind of pigeon-holed him as a Club for Growth right-winger,” said Rothenberg. “I remember when I interviewed him when he ran for Congress, and he’s a personable guy. He’s not running as some ideologue. He’s running as a fiscal conservative, but kind of a main stream American. Not a main stream Republican, just a main stream American.”
“I think some people are too quick to dismiss [Toomey] as ideological, so it’s going to be up to the Democrats to paint him as an extreme rigid conserve ideologue that’s out of touch,” Rothenberg said.
“At this point it’s clear that the Democrats are in trouble nationally. We’re in a new environment that’s neutral or Republican friendly. If Toomey was running in ‘06 or ‘08 in Pennsylvania, then I would dismiss him, but not now.”
Before one of the Democrats takes on Toomey, though, Rothenberg said that substantial energy and resources will be put in to the Democratic primary, where Sestak poses a real threat to the longtime incumbent, Specter.
“Sestak has money and he has a Democratic electorate that is going to be wondering ‘what is Arlen Specter trying to pull now?’ There are lots of voters who like Specter and remember Specter, but you don’t know whether those people will vote in Democratic primaries.”
“[Specter] is in a classic squeeze. Sestak will challenger him from the left, and how Specter responds to that, and if he survives, has a bearing on how he will come out in the general election.”
Tags: Rothenberg
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