By Louis Jacobson
Special to PoliticsPA

WASHINGTON—In an election cycle that’s rapidly turning sour for Democrats, second-term U.S. Rep. Chris Carney (D) has become something of a bright spot, thanks to a combination of savvy positioning and sheer luck.

Carney – who won the northeastern Pennsylvania 10th District seat in 2006 by ousting scandal-tarred incumbent Don Sherwood (R) – has carefully cultivated a middle-of-the-House voting record, including bucking his party on a key cap-and-trade vote earlier this year. Carney’s continuing service as a commander in the Naval Reserve also bolsters his bona fides in the district, observers say, as does his fondness for guns. Carney takes pride in saying that half his staff is Republican.

Equally important, the GOP has not yet found a strong challenger in the district — and in the absence of a top-tier Republican challenger, other targeted Democratic Congressional seats have leapfrogged Carney’s in importance for some GOP strategists. Recent developments have boosted Republican enthusiasm for toppling Democratic Reps. Jason Altmire, Kathy Dahlkemper, Paul Kanjorski and John Murtha and for taking back the House seat being vacated by Senate candidate Joe Sestak.

In this context, said one Republican-leaning political observer, “I don’t think Republicans see [Carney’s seat] as much of an opportunity.”

Officially, Republican officials insist otherwise. “He’s gone right along with the big-government agenda of [House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi, and that alone will hurt him on Election Day,” said Tory Mazzola, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

But Mazzola conceded that he was unable to tout a solid challenger at this point, and in interviews with PoliticsPA, two county GOP chairmen in the district — Francis Golden of Wayne County and Raymond Telnock of Susquehanna County – said they haven’t heard about any candidate-recruiting coups, either.

The one Republican who seemed to jump into the race has since said he’s more interested in a run for the state House. Christopher Bain, who won a Purple Heart serving in the Army in Iraq, said during a speech at a “Tea Party” rally in Williamsport in August that he was planning to challenge Carney, the Williamsport Sun-Gazette reported. But less than two months later, Bain told The Citizens’ Voice of Wilkes-Barre that his “heart is set” on ousting state Rep. Richard Mirabato, instead.

Other names of challengers floated for the seat include auctioneer Dan Naylor, chiropractor Dave Madeira and Dan Meuser, who lost the 2008 GOP primary for the 10th District to Paul Hackett. Hackett, a local businessman, ended up outspending Carney in the general, thanks in part to the personal funds he invested in the race. But boosted by strong Democratic turnout for the Obama-Biden ticket, Carney managed to win a second term, 56 percent to 44 percent – three points better than he had managed against Sherwood two years earlier.

Observers say that Carney, 50, is hardly out of the woods yet, since the Republican Party still has time to find a strong candidate.

“There’s no definite opponent yet, but also no lack of interest among Republicans in wanting to run for that seat,” said Christopher Borick, a political scientist at Muhlenberg College in Allentown. “In the end, I think you’ll get a number of challengers in the primary, because of the nature of the district and the political mood.”

Carney will “have to run hard every two years, because it is a Republican district,” said John Micek, who covers politics for the Morning Call newspaper in Allentown. “I don’t think that district will ever be ‘safe’ for Carney.”

Indeed, Democrats aren’t letting down their guard yet. Carney remains a charter member of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Frontline” program, which provides vulnerable incumbents with extra assistance from the party’s campaign arm.

“Hes moderate to conservative, and I think that strengthens his credentials in the district,” said Abe Amoros, a spokesman for the state Democratic Party. “He’s no liberal.”

If voters begin to perceive Carney as being too liberal for his district, analysts agreed, he could be in trouble — and his Nov. 7 vote in favor of a House health care bill that was sponsored by Democrats and pilloried by Republicans could be a godsend for his opponents.

On the eve the vote, the NRCC made what it described as “targeted” phone calls to voters in Carney’s district.

The calls told constituents that “Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s dangerous, out of control health care spending bill in Congress is due to be voted on this weekend, and Congressman Chris Carney said he may even vote for it. Even with news today that unemployment has gone over 10 percent, Chris Carney may vote for a bill that threatens our economy by increasing taxes, raising our health care costs and creating a massive new government program that middle-class families cannot afford. Chris Carney should be focused on creating jobs, yet he might vote yes for Nancy Pelosi’s bill that has more than $500 billion in new taxes, and could lead to rationing of health care for all Americans.”

But in a Nov. 10 interview with PoliticsPA, Carney expressed comfort with his decision to back the bill.

“I voted my district on the health care bill,” Carney said. “The calls and letters were coming in 2-to-1 in favor of some kind of reform. Of course, they varied on what of reform, but two-third at least wanted some kind of reform. You have to do it carefully, and I promised to do that.”

He added that the small business people and the manufacturers he’s met with since he was first elected to Congress have told him that their number-one issue is health care. “Our employers want to be able to reward their employees, to give them raises. But when they do, that raise is immediately eaten up by increased premiums for health care.”

Carney said that two other aspects of the health care bill should win support in the district. One is his vote in favor of an amendment to the health care bill by Reps. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) and Joe Pitts (R-Pa.) that strengthens barriers against federal funds being used to cover abortions under the bill’s newly created health care “exchange.” The amendment – which was crucial to securing enough votes to pass the health care bill as a whole – enraged supporters of abortion rights, who say that it could impose unprecedented restrictions on Americans’ access to abortion.

Carney has no regrets about supporting the amendment, even though it could catch him flak inside his own caucus. “If I could have voted for the amendment twice, I would have,” said Carney, who is Catholic.

Two other features of the bill hold special interest for his district, Carney said.

One is a provision to encourage health care workers to practice in rural, under-served areas. While the district includes portions of the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton region, much of the sprawling territory along the borders of New York and New Jersey is thinly populated.

The other is a commitment to fund $100 million a year over five years to build medical colleges across the country. These funds, Carney said, could aid construction of a medical college currently being built in Scranton.

In sync with his military service – which involves commanding drone missions over Afghanistan for several weeks per year – Carney has focused his legislative interests on defense, veterans’ issues and homeland security. These topics are typically wonky and are not especially partisan in nature.

For instance, Carney helped write a portion of a G.I. Bill update that extends educational benefits for veterans of the National Guard and the Reserves for 10 years after their separation from the military. In an unusual role for a freshman, Carney chaired the Homeland Security Subcommittee on Management, Investigation and Oversight, a post that focuses on procurement policy. Language he wrote that increases transparency in Transportation Security Administration contracting won inclusion in appropriations legislation that was enacted in December 2007.

Back in the district, observers say, Carney has been low-key but amiable – not the kind of lawmaker who makes enemies easily.

He has spent most of his life in rural parts of the country. Born in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he attended Cornell, the University of Wyoming and the University of Nebraska. From 1992 until his election to Congress, Carney taught at Penn State University in Scranton.

“I think his constituents are quite pleased — they really like him,” said Lackawanna County Democratic Party Chairman Harry McGrath. “I think he comes off as genuine and sincere. He’s not a gladhander, but he is very appealing and gives off a sense of trust. His ongoing relationship with the military is very important to people.”

That could be enough to cement his relationship with voters in his district despite their political leanings, said Bernadette Budde, who tracks Congressional campaigns for the Business-Industry Political Action Committee in Washington.

“I start out believing that the winners of 2006 and 2008 are the ‘new normal’ rather than lucky rubes who somehow found themselves beneficiaries of a thoughtless eruption of angry voters who are ready to turn on them at the next election,” Budde said. “It doesn’t mean they can’t be defeated, but the person who topples them has to match them, not in money, but in local-directed grassroots outreach that focuses on persuadable independents who are not likely to be swayed by rigid ideological or partisan rhetoric. “

Still, no one expects Carney to be able to take his seat for granted, especially if the Democratic affiliation becomes so toxic for Congressional candidates in 2010 that it overwhelms even those with moderate-to-conservative voting records.

“I don’t think Carney can rest easy quite yet, just because of the nature of his district,” said Nathan Gonzales, who handicaps races for the Rothenberg Political Report. “Carney may not be at the top of GOP target lists, but they haven’t forgotten about him, and I expect him to have a serious race next year.”

Tags: Carney

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