Breneman Poll: Breneman 29, Merski 25, Schember 20

City SealThe crowded field to replace term-limited Erie Mayor Joe Sinnott is seeing its second internal poll.  

The campaign for Erie County Council Chairman Jay Breneman conducted and released its own internal poll showing Breneman with a four point lead over the next closest in the seven person race.  

The Breneman campaign poll put him at 29% among respondents, City Councilman Bob Merski at 25%, Former City Councilman Joe Schember had 20%, Erie Playhouse executive director Almitra Clerkin and former City Councilwoman Rubye Jenkins-Husband each had 6%, and Edinboro University of Pennsylvania instructor Lisa Austin and former police chief Steven Franklin each had 4%.  

The poll was designed and executed by the Breneman campaign and consisted of four questions.  The first question was if the person surveyed was planning on voting in the primary election, and if the response was ‘no’ the call was ended.  

According to the results provided by the campaign, 64% of respondents have not committed to voting for a particular candidate in the primary.  

Internal polls, especially those conducted by the campaign, should be taken with a grain of salt.  Internal poll results are often used to help win over and reassure donors, and gain media coverage for the campaign.  

The campaign surveyed 407 Democrats, calling them between March 13th and April 22nd.  The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9%.  

In late March, Merski released his own internal poll, showing him in the lead.

John Persinger and Jon Whaley are running for the Republican nomination.

April 24th, 2017 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Local races | 8 Comments

8 thoughts on “Breneman Poll: Breneman 29, Merski 25, Schember 20”

  1. Tim says:

    By the way, Breneman is a lock to win the primary!

  2. Tim says:

    Chad, I’ve mentioned the Crime and Enforcement Activity in New York City report produced yearly by the NYPD before, and the 2015 edition has recently been released.

    Recall: of 8.3 million people, New York City is 33.3 percent white, 28.6 percent Hispanic, and 25.5 percent black.

    Interesting, New York City is the hometown of our President Donald J. Trump, a man who announced his candidacy in June of 2015.

    While he was starting his campaign to Make America Great Again, white people in New York City were trying to maintain some hope for western civilization within the city.

    In 2015, the record indicates 2.3 percent of those arrested for shooting incidents (gun crime) were white; that same year, 71.2 percent of arrested suspects were black, with 25.6 percent of the suspects arrested classified as Hispanic.
    A staggering 96.8 percent of those arrested for shootings in New York City in 2015 were black or Hispanic.
    How about murder victims/those arrested for murder?
    In 2015:
    Blacks were 63.7 percent of murder victims and 59.1 percent of those arrested for murder.
    Hispanics were 27.6 percent of murder victims and 31.2 percent of those arrested for murder.
    Whites were 6 percent of murder victims and 6.8 percent of those arrested for murder.
    In short: in 2015, blacks and Hispanics were 90.3 percent of those arrested for murder in New York City.
    How about rape victims/those arrested for rape in 2015?
    Blacks were 39.4 percent of rape victims and 44.4 percent of those arrested for rape.
    Hispanics were 35.4 percent of rape victims and 42.6 percent of those arrested for rape.
    Whites were 18.6 percent of rape victims and 6.8 percent of those arrested for rape.
    In short: in 2015 blacks and Hispanics were 87 percent of those arrested for rape in New York City.
    Robbery victims/those arrested for robbery?
    Blacks were 38 percent of robbery victims and 61.9 percent of those arrested for robbery.
    Hispanics were 32.7 percent of robbery victims and 30.1 percent of those arrested for robbery.
    Whites were 15.2 percent of robbery victims and 5.2 percent of those arrested for robbery.
    In short: in 2015, blacks and Hispanics were 92 percent of those arrested for robbery in New York City.
    Without a black or Hispanic population, would New York City need 1/10th the size of its current police force?
    So for those keeping score at home:
    A staggering 96.8 percent of those arrested for shootings in New York City in 2015 were black or Hispanic.
    In short: in 2015, blacks and Hispanics were 90.3 percent of those arrested for murder in New York City
    In short: in 2015 blacks and Hispanics were 87 percent of those arrested for rape in New York City
    In short: in 2015, blacks and Hispanics were 92 percent of those arrested for robbery in New York City
    Make America Great Again? To do this, it means being honest about which racial groups are responsible for violent crime in America (and the explosive growth in the police/prison-industrial complex). In New York City, President Donald J. Trump’s hometown, black and brown people (Hispanics) are responsible for nearly all the violent crime.
    I’m not going to let white liberals destroy my race pally.

  3. Chub says:

    Interesting poll. Breneman should finish in second place. It’s just hard to see Merski losing this race given the automatic name recognition. I would trust his poll more so than Breneman’s, as Merski hired an actual polling firm. It will all depend on turnout but this race is likely a lock for Merski.

  4. Tom says:

    The managing editor of this article should have read the source data a lot more before he chose to copy/paste the same template as the previous article on this topic. PoliticsPA, in general, should pay more attention to this race. This poll is far more accurate than anything else out there. Look at the questions Breneman poll asked vs the questions Merski poll asked and it will be clear who is trying to interpret their polling data favorably and who is publishing facts. Consider an edit, PoliticsPA. Erie needs you as a voice of reason; oftentimes we can not see beyond our own shadow.
    Breneman is espousing a future where all Erie residents can thrive and he is the only candidate with a true platform. I can get on board with that kond of vision. I think BM sadly tried to unveil some kind of a half-hearted reactionary platform out of nowhere the other day (here: https://m.facebook.com/bobmerski/photos/a.230642303654982.65738.213229548729591/1431480703571130). What a joke. Worse-yet, he borrowed some of the topics from other candidates and tried to spin & reword them as if these are “his” ideas. Except his “create an app for the city” idea, hahaha what the heck does that even mean, pal? What would your “app” even do? BM is a nice guy but a terrible excuse for a leader. Per his own words he does not even know why he wants to be the mayor (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xrQg-IEo87U). Erie is in crisis and he is not the guy for such a thing. Neither is Shember, for that matter.
    That Shember guy is so old and tired, awww, he should do some kind of a volunteer position within City Hall and call it a day. Sweet old man, awww, he thinks “going to the GE HQ in Chicago” is going to somehow save that plant? Let it go, Joe. That company is never comin’ back here, buddy. He is yet another one who is sweet but simply can not lead. For years he was just a low-to-mid-level manager at the regional bank (Bob Merski’s mother-in-law was his boss, too, which is classic Erie). Why would we want middle management running our city while we are in crisis? Makes no sense.

  5. Chad says:

    Tim, first off, you already said the racist stuff bluntly, so no need to use the dog whistle ‘thug’. Second I see no evidence for any of the claims you’re making on the link you provided. Poverty and education funding are the drivers of education achievement, not race. If there were a split based on race, however, wouldn’t the common sense political solution be to try to address it rather than to ignore it? If race is a problem, as the conservatives claim that is, then shouldn’t we be yelling about solutions that address the divide and try to be more rather than less inclusive? That is all. Have a great day.

  6. Figs for everybody says:

    Sounds like a tough choice, Tim. Bet you wish David Duke was on the ballot.

  7. Tim says:

    Once a city goes over 10% black you begin to see the crime rate soar and the neighborhoods decline. Erie’s black population now sits at 20% and is being held hostage by the black criminal thug culture responsible for the majority of the crime and 90+% of the murders in the city for the past 10+ years. The libs just hold townhalls and meet and greets to “discuss” “the problem” however they never admit it is black gangbangers or black criminals responsible!
    Go to this website and look at the stats on black educational “achievement” in Erie – it’s pathetic!
    http://education-places.startclass.com/l/18651/Erie-Metro-PA
    Less than half of blacks graduate high school and the ones that do read write and do math at a 4th to 6th grade level.
    Breneman lives in a mansion in Glenwood hills and probably pays 10-12,000 a year in property taxes. On his website, he never says who he really works for, and he touts his military service, yet never indicates the rank he achieved or the awards + medals he earned. However, given the choice between Breneman and that union thug Merski, I would choose Breneman. Joe Schember is a seasoned businessman with many leadership skills the city sorely needs and he has real support among Democrat voters. He should have cross filed to remain on the ballot in the general election. This will be an interesting race to say the least.

  8. Y'all dumb says:

    A poll that took a over a month to conduct that was done not by a real firm, but the campaign themselves? I’m sure those numbers are REALLY accurate.

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