After millions of dollars and months of hard campaigning, several high-profile races could come down to the weather. A huge snow storm moving through Pennsylvania threatens to dampen turnout in parts of western PA that are key to several notable candidates.
The biggest snowfall is projected in the Johnstown/Altoona market, stretching north to the New York border. Up to 12” may fall in Johnstown, and up to 15” in Bradford. Southwestern Pa, including Pittsburgh, will only see a few inches. (Luckily for the candidates, the forecast is continually diminishing).
That’s smack dab in the base of two notable candidates: Tom Smith for U.S. Senate and Mark Critz for Congress. It could also affect a third: Kathleen Kane, candidate for Attorney General, is relying on a strong performance in western Pa. inder to overcome opponent Patrick Murphy’s home base in SEPA.
Jason Altmire’s base in Allegheny and Beaver counties isn’t projected to take a big hit. But in Critz’s home town of Johnstown, snow will continue to accumulate until the Tuesday morning hours when it’s projected to switch to a wintry mix in the morning, and finally rain in the afternoon.
Critz spokesman Mike Mikus said the forecast was improving.
“The doomsday scenario doesn’t look like it will bear out,” he said. But they’ve been following the reports and looking outside. “We’ve been watching it closely since the first reports.”
“It’s stayed warm and there’s barely anything sticking in Johnstown. By tomorrow morning it should be good. We’ve talked to the Board of Elections in case there’s a power outage. There will be paper ballots at every polling place.”
Likewise Smith’s home on the Armstrong/Indiana County border – snow overnight into wintry mix and rain Tuesday,
His campaign is looking for silver lining among these clouds.
Smith is the frontrunner in the U.S. Senate race, but with such a low-key campaign, a disruptive weather event could tilt the scales. Steve Welch of Chester County, who has the endorsement of the PAGOP, could benefit. Or it could help Sam Rohrer of Berks County. Neither area is expected to see snow or even much rain.
“That factor is out of our control,” said Smith campaign manager Jim Conroy. “Tom’s supporters are highly motivated, and we think the folks in western Pa will do everything they can to make it to the polls.”
Welch campaign manager Peter Towey echoed the theme.
“We’re very confident our folks are going to stay out,” he said of the party faithful. “They stand at polling places in November every year. A little April inclement weather is not going to keep them in.”
As one GOP operative quipped, “When did Steve Welch get God’s endorsement?”
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12 Responses
This guy knows what he’s talking about.
I have not seen one Welch, Christian or Scaringi sign in the tri-county area. Rohrer and Smith.
lawn signs = ground game
If weather is a factor, the guys with the ground game and organization support win. Murphy, Critz, and maybe roherer?
Super Voters turn out in primaries pretty much whatever the weather. Super voters this year are not motivated by Steve Welch. He doesn’t have ballot position and the people I’ve spoken to at banquets think he has much to gain in terms of maturity.
Poll workers for Welch? I saw slate cards in three counties just sit on the lit tables at banquets.
This primary has an extra motivation-defeat the endorsement process. Corbett seriously disrespected those elected to state committee playing the Don in Hershey.
Welch will gain maybe three percentage points by the weather, but that is not going to be enough.
Primary on!
@Paul- the subjective spin cycle is almost over. Tom Smith is the consummate conservative, fiscal, social and constitutional, period.
Sam Rohrer is the clear choice for the US Senate race. While not perfect, he has ALWAYS been a solid conservative Republican with his words and voting record, never switching affiliation just to run for office. Welch voted for Obama and held a fundraiser for Joe Sestak and is pretending it never happened. Smith only switched parties last August, claiming he was only a Democrat because his parents were, but his voting record shows that he voted in the Democratic primary in very recent elections, including 2006 and 2010 and 2011. He claims that he doesn’t remember who he voted for. So, anyone who thinks either Smith or Welch are being honest are kidding themselves. Sam Rohrer is the clear choice and is by far the most honest!
Dear Dan Brabender,
Welch had fundraiser in HIS HOUSE for Sestak. Sestak would never endorse Altimre because he’s too moderate for him. Cash your Welch checks before he cancels them.
Tom Smith won’t admit to he voted for and avoids the question.
Also, he’s donated to some of those great conservatives, like when he gave the maximum donation to Jason Altmire…
Vote Steve Welch
The Johnstown Area won’t have a 20% turnout. Mr. Critz will get trounced.
Regarding Sam Rohrer…I give you Katy Abram’s deleted tweet from Friday morning:
@katyabram: @MaxofthApostles I worked 4him that’s why I am not voting 4 him. Sometimes u learn about what people r really like after working w them 🙁
No weather will keep me in and from voting for Tom Smith! I’ll pick anyone up who wants a ride to go vote for him in Crawford Co. Bottom line: Smith never voted for Obama. Smith contributed thousands over the years to conservatives.