A new CBS/New York Times survey suggests that Democratic nominee Tom Wolf’s lead may not be as strong as previously thought.
According to the online scientific poll, Wolf holds a 42% to 33% lead over Gov. Corbett. When you include respondents who lean towards a candidate, however, Wolf’s lead expands to a 52% to 38% margin. (You can read an explanation of online scientific polls here).
In reality, the results are a tale of two polls. In one Wolf holds a sizable advantage, while in the other Governor Corbett’s comeback hopes seem suddenly legitimate. This depends heavily on the “leaners” and whether they will show up to vote come election day.
For example, based on firm responses among male voters Corbett leads his Democratic challenger 41% to 39%. When you include the leaners, though, the candidates are tied with men at 46%.
The portion of Wolf supporters that are merely “leaning” towards him is particularly high among young (22%), female (13%) and Hispanic (35%) voters. The problem for the Democratic nominee is that among those portions of citizens who tend not to vote during off-year elections are young, female and Hispanic voters.
Make no mistake, Wolf is still in the driver’s seat in this race. If you include leaners, he leads every age group as well as black, Hispanic, female, Democratic, Independent, liberal and moderate voters. Furthermore, he’s tied with Corbett among males and white voters and only trails the Governor among conservatives.
The key issue is whether Wolf’s support is soft. If so, then the incumbent may be able to chip away at Wolf’s lead through a massive negative TV ad campaign (as Gov. Corbett is currently doing).
To win the Governor’s seat, the Democratic front-runner must solidify his support and not rest on the laurels of his lead, for it may shrink significantly (and perhaps even completely) if he’s not careful.
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16 Responses
If the best case scenario for incumbent Governor of Pennsylvania polling wise is only having the solid support of 33% of Pennsylvanians for his re-election then his goose is cooked. Nearly 4 years have passed but yet only 1/3 of Pennsylvanians are convinced he’s the man for the job, eh, this uplifting how again? I doubt the solid numbers are as low as they reported, they likely used a silly voter turnout system to come to these numbers (similar to Gallup) because there’s no way in the end of July do 26% of Pennsylvanians NOT know who they’re voting for or if they’re voting.
The nature of the article is kind of silly and is more click bait more than anything.
For all those arguing that this poll isn’t “legitimate” because it was online, how else do you expect for polling to be done today? How often are you willing to sit there on the phone while someone just asks you questions? Most people will just hang up. If anything, I would argue that this online poll is more accurate than anything. It shows the thoughts of everyday people who are willing to click through questions – much more informative than someone who takes time out of their day to respond to a phone call.
Sorry I’m not sorry that Wolf’s numbers are starting to slack while PA finally sees the wolf in sheep’s clothing.
YeHAH!! Let’s turn the Governor’s race into a race war! That’s the way TRUE REPUBLICANS DO IT! CORBETT-BRABENDER-GLEASON: I dare you to make this state permanently BLUE and destroy what’s left of the Republican Party in this state. Protect the white women and children, please from our First black President and those scary kids from Guatemala.
Governor Corbett is losing a LOT of votes by being in favor of Common Core, the transformational educational initiative that has been foisted upon Pennsylvanians without the approval of the State legislature. Common Core is creating havoc in the schools, and will have a HUGE negative fiscal impact on local school districts from its unfunded mandates. The governor needs to come out AGAINST Common Core, primarily because it is the right thing to do for the sake of our children. If he takes this courageous action, many of us who would have sat out the election would definitely go to the polls and give him our vote. Please listen, Governor Corbett. We don’t want Tom Wolf, but we also don’t want Common Core!
it don’t hafta be a refrenudum on Obama becuz corbitts the guy alredy in office who won and the way it works in penna is guvenors are in power 8 yrs at a time then the other partys guy takes over.
Governor: forget Wolf. Turn this election into a referendum on Obama and watch your numbers soar.
All Corbett has to do to carry all the democrats in NE PA and Central PA is to come out against illegal immigration and the way Obama is ignoring the law.
Corbett should refuse to allow any PA money to be expended on any illegals, including the Pelosi children streaming into the country.
Nick, The poll results that you download when you click on the first like are about alaska senate, governor and house race.
Is Chris Martinez keeping it real(Dumb) or doesn’t he have spell check. Maybe he’s using a Dictaphone.
Anyway the poll seems bogus.
The link for the poll is a bunch of jibberish code…can we see the real one?
I new it all along guvenore corbitt is gonna win it and this pole is prove that he gonna keep his job.
did anyone learn anything about outlying polls in 2012? ANYONE?
http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-shows-romney-leading-in-blue-pennsylvania/article/2511153
It’s not clear if this poll is of “likely voters” or general poll, and then extrapolating behavior of less likely voters by group.
However, Corbett is consistently ranked as the most vulnerable governor in the country. Poll after poll shows that Pennsylvanians don’t believe he deserves reelection.
The recent downgrade of PA is one more nail in Corbett’s political coffin.
As to whether Wolf’s support is “soft”.. I don’t think it matters. The voters want Corbett out, so Wolf’s appeal in November is mostly that his last name is not “Corbett”. (also, that Wolf wants to restore funding to education)
An online poll? Really?
This seems like bad analysis. An incumbent is down nearly 10 Points about 3 months before the election among those who are likely the most committed voters and you suggest this is somehow good news? And if the challenger can expand the electorate, the lead only grows? Of course, no one thought Wolf was really going to break 60 and win by 20 points, in a state like Pa in what could be a GOP year nationally. But suggesting this poll is good news for Corbett is a tad off.
not really a surprise