Critz Internal Poll: Critz Behind in Primary But Not That Much
Mark Critz’s campaign knows he is starting out behind in his primary against fellow Congressman Jason Altmire. But a polling memo released Wednesday lays out what they say is a viable path to victory.
In the field as a whole, Altmire leads Critz 47 to 37 percent (compared to Altmire’s 16 point lead in his own internal poll). The memo, embedded below, highlights Critz’s 46 to 45 percent lead among voters who know both candidates.
“The results of our survey of Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional District put Mark Critz in a solid position to overtake Jason Altmire and win the primary in April once voters become more familiar with Critz and aware of the candidates’ recent votes on key issues important to Democrats,” the pollsters wrote.
Critz enjoys a wider margin in his favorability rating, while Altmire enjoys much higher name ID. 39 percent hold a favorable view of Critz to 8 percent unfavorable. 52 percent have a positive view of Altmire compared to 19 percent with a negative view.
In his own backyard – Cambria and Somerset counties – Critz leads Altmire 88 to 4 percent. The memo did not break down the race in Altmire’s part of the district, but a campaign source characterized it as less solid than Critz’s.
These results are encouraging for the Critz campaign, which lost one battle in the endorsement war (the Allegheny County Democratic Committee) by a margin of 2-1 over the weekend. However, he has received a number of endorsements from various unions and groups throughout the region, which appear to be aiding his campaign efforts in a new district where Altmire currently represents about two thirds of constituents.
The poll of 400 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania has an estimation error associated of 4.9% at the 95% confidence interval. This means that in 95 of 100 cases, the results of this poll are within plus or minus 4.9 points of the results that would have been obtained if all likely voters had been interviewed. Note that special care was taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the actual electorate are properly represented.
As always, internal polling should be taken with a grain of salt. The questions, crosstabs, and information from “positive profiles” remain private. The firm is Global Strategy Group.