Mark Critz trails Jason Altmire but just 7 points, according to a poll conducted for Critz’s campaign. The 45 to 38 percent margin shows 3 points of net growth for Critz from his February poll (which showed Altmire leading 47 to 37 percent), but conflicts strongly with an Altmire campaign poll released last week (showing Altmire ahead 55 to 31 percent).
“The results of our poll show that we are gaining ground as the voters, particularly those who are new to me, learn about my record of fighting for jobs,” Critz said. “We are gaining momentum every day and we will not slow down until the polls close on April 24.”
His campaign press release notes that the poll was conducted by Global Strategy Group, which a campaign source said was one of the only firms to accurately predict the margin in his 2010 special election win.
Both Altmire and Critz have strong support from their home turf: Altmire leads 61 percent to 19 percent among voters in the former Pa-4 (about 66 percent of the new district), while Critz leads 70 percent to 18 percent among voters in his old district. (about 28 percent of his old district).
The pollster questioned 400 randomly selected likely Democratic primary voters in the 12th district from March 22-25, 2012. The margin of error associated with the sample of 400 is ±4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. Results were adjusted to accurately reflect geographic and demographic divisions of the electorate.
This is an internal poll, and as such should be taken with a grain of salt. Critz must continually overcome expectations that Altmire’s larger portion of the new district gives him an edge.
Here’s the full polling memo: