Critz Poll: Critz Within 7

Mark Critz trails Jason Altmire but just 7 points, according to a poll conducted for Critz’s campaign. The 45 to 38 percent margin shows 3 points of net growth for Critz from his February poll (which showed Altmire leading 47 to 37 percent), but conflicts strongly with an Altmire campaign poll released last week (showing Altmire ahead 55 to 31 percent).

“The results of our poll show that we are gaining ground as the voters, particularly those who are new to me, learn about my record of fighting for jobs,” Critz said. “We are gaining momentum every day and we will not slow down until the polls close on April 24.”

His campaign press release notes that the poll was conducted by Global Strategy Group, which a campaign source said was one of the only firms to accurately predict the margin in his 2010 special election win.

Both Altmire and Critz have strong support from their home turf: Altmire leads 61 percent to 19 percent among voters in the former Pa-4 (about 66 percent of the new district), while Critz leads 70 percent to 18 percent among voters in his old district. (about 28 percent of his old district).

The pollster questioned 400 randomly selected likely Democratic primary voters in the 12th district from March 22-25, 2012. The margin of error associated with the sample of 400 is ±4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. Results were adjusted to accurately reflect geographic and demographic divisions of the electorate.

This is an internal poll, and as such should be taken with a grain of salt. Critz must continually overcome expectations that Altmire’s larger portion of the new district gives him an edge.

Here’s the full polling memo:

Critz Poll 3-26

March 26th, 2012 | Posted in Congress, Front Page Stories, Poll, Top Stories | 31 Comments

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  27. Kathleen says:

    Critz has the backing of Steny Hoyer and the unions? That should be enough to convince any non-corrupted, law-abiding human to vote for Altmire.

  28. westernpa says:

    Jumpin Johnny needs to do more about his union members only having one day off since Jan. 1st. Johnny needs to go and the union needs young educated blood in leadership. I’m voting for Mark not because of my union, but rather because I’m a voter that thinks on my own.

  29. Tim says:

    So on one hand the Critz campaign says this is the only polling company that predicts things accurately, but is still bragging about being 10 points behind?

    Does the Critz staffer that continues to post the ridiculous lie that Altmire is going to switch parties really think the average voter is reading politicspa?

    Yes, I’m ready to trust a former ex-fake wrestler who is part of the consortium of labor leaders that have been out to get a Congressman that has an over 90% voting record with labor because of a misunderstanding during one conversation.

    So you really think that the liberal Dems will back a tea party favorite in Keith Rothfus in the general? The weed must be very strong in the Johnstown area this time of year.

  30. rdog says:

    All these polls miss the main point: Altmire is unelectable in the Fall unless he’s made a deal with the NRCC to switch parties. No need to spend $20k plus to know that Altmire can’t win. Just ask Jumping Johnny DeFazio. He’ll tell the facts on the ground for free!!

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