Election day has finally arrived.
In mid-August, PoliticsPA recorded FiveThirtyEight’s projections for the 18 Congressional seats up for reelection in the state of Pennsylvania. Some races have tightened since that article, such as Pennsylvania 1, 10, and 16, while some matchups have gone in the direction of one candidate.
Today, we look at the Election Day ratings from FiveThirtyEight, Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
PA Gov: Gov. Tom Wolf (D) vs Scott Wagner (R)
FiveThirtyEight: Wolf has a 99% chance of winning
Cook: Likely Democratic
Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
PA Sen: Sen. Bob Casey (D) vs Lou Barletta (R)
FiveThirtyEight: Casey has a 96.9% chance of winning
Cook: Likely Democratic
Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
PA1: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks) vs Scott Wallace (D)
FiveThirtyEight: Fitzpatrick has a 57.1% chance of winning
Cook: Toss Up
Sabato Crystal Ball: Leans Republican
PA2: Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Philadelphia) vs David Torres (R)
FiveThirtyEight: Boyle has a 99.9% chance of winning
Cook: Solid Democratic
Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
PA3: Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) vs Bryan Leib (R)
FiveThirtyEight: Evans has a 99.9% chance of winning
Cook: Solid Democratic
Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
PA4: Madeleine Dean (D) vs Dan David (R)
FiveThirtyEight: Dean has a 99.9% chance of winning
Cook: Solid Democratic
Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
PA5: Mary Gay Scanlon (D) vs Pearl Kim (R)
FiveThirtyEight: Scanlon has a 99.9% chance of winning
Cook: Likely Democratic
Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
PA6: Chrissy Houlahan (D) vs Greg McCauley
FiveThirtyEight: Houlahan has a 97.6% chance of winning
Cook: Likely Democratic
Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
PA7: Susan Wild (D) vs Marty Nothstein (R)
FiveThirtyEight: Wild has a 95.1% chance of winning
Cook: Leans Democratic
Sabato Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic
PA8: Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna) vs John Chrin (R)
FiveThirtyEight: Cartwright has a 96.2% chance of winning
Cook: Likely Democratic
Sabato Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
PA9: Dan Mueser (R) vs Denny Wolff (D)
FiveThirtyEight: Mueser has a 99.8% chance of winning
Cook: Solid Republican
Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
PA10: Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) vs George Scott (D)
FiveThirtyEight: Perry has a 67.5% chance of winning
Cook: Toss Up
Sabato Crystal Ball: Leans Republican
PA11: Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Lancaster) vs Jess King (D)
FiveThirtyEight: Smucker has a 93.2% chance of winning
Cook: Solid Republican
Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
PA12: Rep. Tom Marino (R-Lycoming) vs Marc Friedenberg (D)
FiveThirtyEight: Marino has a 99.9% chance of winning
Cook: Solid Republican
Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
PA13: John Joyce (R) vs Brent Ottaway (D)
FiveThirtyEight: Joyce has a 99.9% chance of winning
Cook: Solid Republican
Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
PA14: Guy Reschenthaler (R) vs Bibiana Boerio (D)
FiveThirtyEight: Reschenthaler has a 99.2% chance of winning
Cook: Likely Republican
Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
PA15: Glenn W. Thompson (R-Centre) vs Susan Boser (D)
FiveThirtyEight: Thompson has a 99.9% chance of winning
Cook: Solid Republican
Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
PA16: Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Butler) vs Ron DiNicola (D)
FiveThirtyEight: Kelly has a 87.4% chance of winning
Cook: Leans Republican
Sabato Crystal Ball: Leans Republican
PA17: Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Allegheny) vs Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Allegheny)
FiveThirtyEight: Lamb has a 95.9% chance of winning
Cook: Likely Democratic
Sabato Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
PA18: Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Allegheny)
FiveThirtyEight: Doyle is running uncontested
Cook: Solid Democratic
Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
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3 Responses
99% chance of victory says all you need to know about how it looks. Of course, always always vote! Inside Elections has Wolf as “likely Democratic” and Casey as “solid Democratic.” This newsletter really contorts themselves to not be out on a limb so these designations for Casey and Wolf are not lightly given. In short, it is going to be a positive and big night for Wolf and Casey and Democrats.
Oh, no doubt. I was thinking more about the House races across the country and how 538’s 86% chance of D control means the R’s still have a decent chance at retaining.
The Wagner and Casey races will be called by 8:10.
People really need to understand that 538 is a probabilistic look at an election. It is NOT a predictor as Silver has pointed out endlessly. People should not read too much into any of this data. Vote!