It was six years ago when NFL referee Gene Steratore used an index card to determine whether a first down was gained in a game between the Cowboys and the Raiders.

Steratore, born in Uniontown and residing in Washington, makes for a perfect Pennsylvania example of how close the 2024 presidential race is in the Keystone State.

The latest poll from Emerson College finds a virtual tie between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a survey of 1,000 likely voters in the Keystone State.

When asked who they would choose if the election were held today, 481 respondents indicated Harris, while the same number shared their preference for Trump. Emerson also asked those who were undecided which way they might be leaning. Harris ended up with a net plus-5, gaining 12 additional selections to just seven for Trump.

Respondents were also asked who they “expect to be president after the 2024 election” and the vice president ended up on top by 14 responses.

The U.S. Senate race continues to tighten as incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr.’s lead over Republican challenger Dave McCormick is now within the margin of error. Casey received 47.1% support to 45.4% for McCormick with the MOE at 3%.

“Casey leads among voters under 50, 53% to 37%, while McCormick leads the 50 and over vote: 51% to 43%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted. “Women break for Casey by 11 points, 52% to 41%, while men break for McCormick by eight points, 50% to 42%.”

Casey had held a 6.3 percentage-point average lead since Labor Day, while McCormick reached the 45% mark for the first time in the last six surveys.

Presidential Crosstabs

• Men: Trump 52.4% – 44.2% (+8.2)
• Women: Harris 52.4% – 43.6% (+8.8)
• Post-Secondary degree: Harris 55.2% – 44.8% (+10.4)
• No Post-Secondary degree: Trump 60.2% – 39.8% (+20.4)
• 18-29 Years of Age: Harris 61.0% – 37.4% (+23.6)
• White: Trump 55.1% – 41.0% (+14.0)
• Black: Harris 89.3% – 7.8% (+81.5)
• Hispanic/Latino: Harris 63.5% – 33.2% (+30.3)

Job Approval

• President Joe Biden: 38% approve, 53.8% disapprove (-15.8)
• Gov. Josh Shapiro: 47% approve, 34.9% disapprove (+12.1)

Favorability

• Harris: 49.4% favorable, 50.6% unfavorable (-1.2)
• Trump: 47.6% favorable, 52.4% unfavorable (-4.8)

Miscellaneous

• Likelihood of Voting: 100% very likely
• Most Important PA Issue
  • Economy: 49.9%
  • Threats to Democracy: 12.4%
  • Immigration: 9.7%
• Better for Personal Finances: Trump +6.8%
• Handle Fracking in PA: Trump +10.6%

The Emerson College Polling/RealClear PA survey was conducted September 27-28, 2024. The sample of likely voters in Pennsylvania is n=1,000. The polls have a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/-3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling, and voter registration data.