The lead continues to grow in the Keystone State.

Former President Donald Trump now has a polling lead outside the margin of error over President Joe Biden, according to the latest survey of 1,000 Pennsylvania voters by Emerson College.

In the poll sponsored by Democrats for Next Generation, Trump has a five-point advantage over Biden at 48-43% in Pennsylvania – a margin that expands to six (46-40%) when third-party candidates are added to the ballot test.

Trump leads Biden in seven swing states – Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin – as well as a national poll (44-38%).

• Full Results

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said, “Recent polling shows Biden losing support more significantly than Trump gaining it since the attempted assassination. This raises questions about whether Biden’s decline is still influenced by the debate or if Trump has reached his support ceiling.”

Among Pennsylvania survey findings:

• 85.7% are very likely to vote in the November election. Just 2.3% said they were not likely at all.
• The worries among Congressional Democrats are well founded, as 46.3% of respondents said they would support the Republican candidate for Congress on the ballot, versus 44.7% for a Democrat.
• Just one-third of those surveyed said they think Biden is fit to be the next U.S. president. Notably, just half believe the same of Trump.
• Half (51%) believe that Biden should withdraw from the race. This figure is 16 points smaller than the AP-NORC poll released yesterday.
• More than 2-in-5 (44%) believe that Trump should withdraw from the race.
• If Biden would withdraw from the race, two-thirds (67%) believe the Democratic candidate should be selected by having public debates among leading candidates. Just 33% believe that the party should select its nominee without debates. Three-in-10 are not sure if debates would be a good or bad thing for the potential nominee.

When the topic turned to Vice President Kamala Harris, respondents were divided which selection method would make her most likely to win the election.

• One-third (33%) indicated selection without public debates would be best, while 38% believe that public debates are the best way. Nearly 3-in-10 were not sure.
• Nearly 57 percent do not believe that she has “earned the right to be the next Democratic nominee for president,” while 43% believe she has.

Emerson surveyed Pennsylvanians about age as well.

• One-third of respondents (33.4%) said that the ideal age for a president is “in their 50s,” while the 40s (17.2%) and 60s (16.7%) followed. Just three percent answered” in their 70s and just 1.0% said in their 80s or older.
• When queried about choosing between Biden and a younger, qualified Republican, nearly 62% indicated they would select the GOP candidate, as opposed to 38% for Biden.
• When the question substituted Trump for Biden, 53% said they would select the younger Democrat, as opposed to 47% for Trump.

The July, June-July, and March 2024 state polls consist of n=1,000 registered voters per state with a credibility interval of +/-3% per state.

The sample for the most recent national poll (7/15-16) is n=2,000, with a credibility interval of +/-2.1%. The June-July national poll (6/30-7/2) consists of n=1,000 registered voters with a credibility interval of +/-3%.

The newest state and national polls were fielded July 15-16, 2024.