Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website has released their 2016 edition of pollster ratings.
Just like two years ago, a number of PA based firms were included.
Once again, Muhlenberg College finished on top with an A-. The firm had twenty-two of their polls analyzed and achieved a 91% success rate. Their “mean-reverted bias” was R+0.5.
Franklin & Marshall College came in second with a B+. Eighteen surveys were included that had a success rate of 94% and a MRB of R+0.4.
There was a three-way tie for third. The particulars of which are included below:
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. – 29 polls, 79%, B, D+0.1
Temple University – 6 polls, 100%, B, R+0.4
Philadelphia Inquirer – 4 polls, 100%, B, R+0.3
Harper Polling earned a B-. Their nine polls had a 100% success rate and a D+0.3 bias. West Chester University got a C+, and correctly predicted all races in their seven surveys. They had a D+0.2 bias.
Millersville University came in last again, although their grade improved to a D. They recorded an 80% success rate on five polls and a R+1.5 mean-reverted bias.
You can read Silver explain how FiveThirtyEight calculated their ratings here and view the raw data here.
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5 Responses
Pa Political always forgets about my hometown. Do some fact checking. You forgot Mercyhurst U and Tom Ridge School of Intelligence
too bad no one did a poll on how much $ the DSCC had to pour in to buy the election for mcGinty.
Should add factor for # of polls that organization has done. Someone could do a poll with obvious results, get it right & have a 100% rating.
Did they see F&M’s polling of the Senate or Presidential race in PA? Guess not.
F&M Poll: Sestak 33% McGinty 27% Fetterman 8% April 21
Actual result: McGinty 42.50% Sestak 32.57% Fetterman 19.49%
F&M Poll: Hillary 53% Bernie 28% March 21
F&M Poll: Hillary 55% Bernie 29% April 21
Actual result: Hillary 55.61% Bernie: 43.53%
I was the first person in my family to conduct a poll.