The snapshot in time that is any poll was never more true than with the release of the latest Franklin & Marshall College poll which finds the presidential and U.S. Senate race so close that it will be decided by turnout.
In a survey of 794 registered Pennsylvania voters, the results showed a one-point difference between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump with the same margin separating Sen. Bob Casey Jr. and Dave McCormick.
In the presidential contest, Trump holds a less than one percentage-point edge over Harris among likely voters (49.6%-49.3%) and well within the poll’s margin of error at +/-4.3%.
The game changes, however, among registered voters that have other choices with Harris holding a four-point advantage, 48-44%.
Essentially, if registered voters come off the bench and vote … that could be the difference. Should they stay home and let the likely voters have their say … that could tip the scale.
In other words … too close to call.
Berwood Yost, director of the Franklin & Marshall poll, said that “the difference in preferences among likely voters and registered voters is primarily because the partisan, ideological, and age profile of these voters is different – the current pool of registered voters is more Republican in terms of their party identity, has fewer moderates ideologically, and has fewer voters less than 35 years of age.”
In a four-way race that includes Jill Stein and Chase Oliver, Harris has a 49-45% edge that is similar to F&M’s September poll and a point higher than its August survey (46-43%)
The survey also asked about whether voters were certain who they would vote for or if they were still making up their mind. Ninety-one percent of the 752 respondents said they were certain, while nine percent of about 68 people indicated they are still deciding.
In the race for the United States Senate, Casey has the lead amongst likely voters, 49%-48%, and extends that advantage to seven points among registered voters (49-42%).
McCormick, however, is bringing Republicans home, as he has increased his support since September, rising from 75% to 86%
Yost also noted that splitting tickets was found to be rare among the respondents. Nearly half (49%) of the registered voters are Harris-Casey voters and two in five (43%) are Trump-McCormick voters, both increases in straight-ticket voting since September. There are a small proportion of Trump-Casey (1%) and Trump-Other (1%) voters and virtually no Harris-McCormick or Harris-Other voters. Polarization is even stronger among likely voters: 49% of likely voters are Harris-Casey voters and 48% are Trump-McCormick voters at this time.
Almost all those surveyed indicated that they were certain to vote (94%), while an additional four percent said they will probably vote. Two percent said it was a 50-50 proposition, while 1% said they did not think they would vote.
Three-quarters of respondents said they were very much interested in the 2024 elections.
Nearly 3-in-5 Pennsylvanians (61%) are irritated given to the Keystone State as THE swing state, while 32 percent find it somewhat or very exciting. Fifty-five percent say it does make them feel much more responsible as a voter, while an additional 20% feel somewhat more responsibility.
President
Most important in deciding which candidate to support
- Economic Policies – 18%
- Honesty/Integrity/Good Character – 14% (highest over last 3 surveys)
- Women’s Rights – 10% (highest over last 3 surveys)
Which candidate is …
- Best understands concerns of ordinary Americans – Harris 49, Trump 41 (largest gap in 3 surveys)
- Prepared to handle the economy – Trump 48, Harris 42 (smallest gap in 3 surveys)
- Closest to your views on values issues – Harris 51, Trump 40
- Handle job of commander-in-chief – Trump 45, Harris 42 (smallest gap in 3 surveys)
- Has character and good judgment needed to be President – Harris 47, Trump 36
Favorability
- Joe Biden: minus-13 (43% – 56%)
- Donald Trump: minus-12 (44% – 56%)
- Kamala Harris: minus-1 (49% – 50%)
- Bob Casey: plus-2 (42% – 40%)
- Dave McCormick: minus-6 (38% – 44%)
Job Performance
Josh Shapiro
- Excellent – 26%
- Good – 22% (48% combined is lowest since February 2024)
- Fair – 24%
- Poor – 22% (highest total since question first asked)
Joe Biden
- Excellent – 15%
- Good – 19%
- Fair – 14%
- Poor – 51% (11th straight survey at 50% or higher)
Pennsylvania
Direction of things in Pennsylvania
- Right direction – 42% (+7% over past year)
- Off on the Wrong Track – 48% (-7)
Most important problem facing the state
- Economy, finances – 30% (+12% over past year)
- Government, politicians – 10%
How is your family doing financially?
- Better off – 17% (+6 over past year)
- Worse off – 43% (-7%; represents lowest percentage since August 2023)
How about a year from now?
- Better off – 25% (highest percentage since October 2020)
- Worse off – 13% (lowest percentage since October 2020)
Has fracking helped your community?
- Not at All (28%), A great deal (20%), Some (16%), Not Much (14%)
Has fracking hurt the environment in your community?
- Not at all (40%), Not Much (18%), Some (14%), A Great Deal (7%)
Has fracking in Pennsylvania helped the economy or harmed the environment?
- More to help the economy – 51%
- More to harm the environment – 33%
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted October 9 – 20, 2024. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. The data included in this release represent the responses of 794 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 351 Democrats, 326 Republicans, and 118 Independents.