F&M Poll: Wolf 36%, Schwartz 9%
Franklin and Marshall’s latest poll shows that former Revenue Secretary Tom Wolf leads the pack of Democratic gubernatorial candidates by a wide margin.
In this poll, Wolf took 36%, Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz took 9%, State Treasurer Rob McCord took 3%, and the DEP Secretaries Katie McGinty and John Hanger tied at 1%.
Former Auditor General Jack Wagner, the latest entry into the race, was not polled.
Just under three months away from the election, 48% of voters surveyed said they were still undecided about their pick in the Democratic primary.
The results mirror the findings of Harper Polling survey released Tuesday.
F&M also surveyed the permeation of Wolf’s television ads amongst the survey respondents: 65% of registered Democrats have seen a television commercial for governor, and almost all (88%) of these respondents have seen a Wolf advertisement.
Wolf had spent over $1 million on television when this poll was conducted, compared to virtually nothing by his opponents.
Among those who have seen Wolf’s ads, 56% say that he is their choice for governor, and he is the only candidate to maintain double digit support after seeing one of his ads, which means those who have seen him on TV are likely to favor him.
Among those who have not seen a Wolf television ad, Schwartz leads the hypothetical primary with 13%, followed by Wolf at 11%, McCord at 5%, 4% for some other candidate and 68% undecided.
Wolf and Schwartz are far ahead of their competitors in favorability and by transient property, name recognition. 44% of respondents had a favorable view of Wolf, and just 47% responded that they didn’t know. 28% of respondents had a favorable view of Schwartz and 60% didn’t know.
While these are still large fields of indecision, by comparison McCord and McGinty have 81% and 86% of registered voters unsure.
Wolf’s support ideologically is much the same as the Harper Poll, 36% of self-identified liberals support him, 37% of moderates and 37% of conservatives. His closest challenger in any ideological category was Schwartz, who won 12% of liberal respondents.
In addition to registered voters who haven’t seen a Wolf ad, Schwartz leads in one other category – young voters. 20% of the under-30 category supports her, compared to just 9% for Wolf and between 1-2% for any other candidate.
Geographically, Wolf’s support extends beyond his home Central region, where he takes 45%. In Philly, he takes 30% compared to Schwartz’s 19%. In the Southeast, he takes 39% compared to Schwartz’s 16%. And in Allegheny, thought to be a Wagner stronghold, Wolf took 39% and 4% of respondents chose another candidate not listed.
Franklin and Marshall surveyed 548 registered Democrats from Feb. 18 to 23. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.2%.