In what is quickly becoming a trend, Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. Bob Casey Jr. once again received good polling news as the latest Franklin & Marshall College survey dropped Thursday.

Harris has a three-point advantage over former President Donald Trump, 46-43%, although the margin does fall within the +/-3.8 margin of error. It is the fourth consecutive survey of Keystone State voters that finds the VP in front of Trump in the last week.

Casey has expanded his lead over Republican challenger Dave McCormick since the last F&M poll in March. Pennsylvania’s senior senator has a 48-36% advantage – five points better than he polled previously. It is just the second time in the last six PA polls that Casey has received less than 50 percent support, while it is the smallest percentage total for McCormick by a neutral polling group since May.

President

Harris’ three-point edge over Trump continues the trend favoring the Democrat. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polled at 6%, while 3% indicated they did not know.

Nearly 8-in-9 respondents (87%) stated that they were “absolutely certain” who they would vote for, while just 1-in-8 (12%) said they were “still making up their mind.” Among the undecided, 27% leaned toward Harris, while 23% favored Trump.

Harris drew strong numbers from women (52-39%), voters under 35 (57-21%), and those with a college degree (61-30%). Trump’s strength came from men (50-39%), those voters over 55 (49-43%), and those with a high school education or less (59-29%).

Independents tilted toward Harris as well by a seven-point difference (40-33%).

One-in-seven (14%) said that a candidate’s economic policies were most important in deciding who to support for the office. Twelve percent said “honesty/integrity/good character” was their baseline, while 10% said “Not Trump/not Republican/doesn’t support Trump” was their line in the sand.

More respondents said that Harris best understood the concerns of ordinary Americans (46-42), is closest to their views on values issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage (49-40), has the character and good judgement needed to be president (46-38), and is most honest and trustworthy (45-32). Trump drew higher marks on prepared to handle the economy (51-39) and better handle the job of commander in chief (47-40).

The percentage of those surveyed that felt Trump’s “actions to try to remain in power after the 2020 election were serious” is at its lowest since F&M first asked the question at 55%.

U.S. Senate

Casey’s 12-point advantage equals his highest in the F&M poll, tying the 47-35% bulge he had in February 2024. Thirteen percent indicated they did not know who they would vote for. McCormick received 20% support among leaners to just 12% for Casey. More people feel that the senior senator’s job performance has done an excellent or good job (38%) then at any time in a F&M poll since October 2018 (43%).

Women (53-30%), young voters (60-17%) and those with a college degree (61-28%) heavily support Casey. McCormick does not do impressively well among most groups other than those with a high school education or less (47-29%) and “born-again” or evangelical Christians (67-15%).

Governor

Gov. Josh Shapiro, who was a runner-up for the VP spot on the Democratic ticket, has the highest approval rating for a Pennsylvania chief executive at this point in a first term since Gov. Tom Ridge at 52%. More women (58%) than men (45%) approve of Shapiro’s work, while those with a four-year college degree (65%) approve by nearly two-thirds. He also gets high marks from the Philadelphia and southeast PA regions (62%) versus just 36% from the northwest region of the state.

Dr. Feelgood

Forty-three percent of the respondents to the survey of 920 likely voters said that “things in Pennsylvania are generally headed in the right direction” – the highest percentage in the F&M poll since October 2020 (43%). The 47% figure from those who “feel that things are off on the wrong track” is also the lowest since that 2020 survey.

Most Important Problem

Not surprisingly, for the fifth consecutive poll, economy/finances is viewed by the respondents as the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today (23%). That figure is the highest since an October 22 survey (28%). Government/politicians remained the second choice (11%) followed by education (10%).

Crime, which had been as high as 19% in April 2023, came in a tie for fourth at 6%.

Finances

Twenty-one percent of those surveyed indicated that they and their family would be better off financially a year from now versus 20% that said “worse off.” It is the second straight poll that found more feeling they would be better off than worse.

Miscellaneous

• Student access to cell phones during school hours – 12% for, 84% against
• Sunday hunting – 49% favor, 34% oppose
• Open primary elections – 77% favor, 20% oppose
• Republicans – Trump Republican (45%), Traditional Republican (43%)
• Democrats – Progressive (42%), Centrist (38%)
• Regulating Gun Ownership – 60% favor, 37% oppose
• Abortion – 89% legal under certain or all circumstances, 9% illegal in all

Job Performance

• President Joe Biden – 35% excellent or good, 64% fair or poor
• Casey – 38% excellent or good, 46% fair or poor
• Gov. Josh Shapiro – 51% excellent or good, 40% fair or poor

Favorability

• Biden – minus-17 (41-58)
• Trump – minus-12 (44-56)
• Harris – minus-6 (46-52)
• Casey – plus-7 (43-36)
• McCormick – minus-6 (31-37)

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted July 31 – August 11, 2024. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. The data included in this release represent the responses of 920 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 411 Democrats, 378 Republicans, and 131 Independents.

The sample error for this survey is +/- 3.8 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered.