A poll commissioned by a Republican super PAC shows Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race tied. Sen. Bob Casey had 43.8 percent of the vote compared to Tom Smith’s 43.6.
The poll was commissioned as an independent expenditure by Fight for the Dream, a super PAC formed by Lehigh County Republican chairman Wayne Woodman.
Its the first step in the group’s plan to become more involved in the final two weeks of the campaign, a spokesman said.
The pollster, GS Strategy Group, is a GOP firm that also does surveys for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. They surveyed 500 likely voters via live interviews from October 17-18. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.38 percent.
Smith leads Casey by 5 points, 37 percent to 32 among independents.
Casey’s favorable rating is net positive by 1 point, 42 percent to 41. Among independent voters, he’s viewed unfavorably 44 percent to 31.
Smith, on the other hand, is viewed favorably 40 percent to 34 overall and 32 percent to 27 among indies.
The PAC declined to release its crosstabs.
As with any internal poll, take this with a grain of salt. As with most Republican groups, this PAC has an interest in pushing the narrative that PA’s U.S. Senate races is highly competitive. That’s because it could help attract other outside groups to become involved in the race.
The Real Clear Politics average of the race, which does not yet include some independent polls released Monday, shows Casey with a 5 point lead. The RCP average does not take internal polls, like this one, into account.
Side note: in the primary, this PAC actually contributed $174,000 to an effort to defeat Smith.
Here’s the full memo: