If you are trying to read the “tea leaves” for clues to how the 2024 presidential election will turn out in the Commonwealth, you could do worse than looking at the voter registration rolls.
PoliticsPA looked at the latest voter registration data from the Department of State and based on the numbers alone, Republicans continue to cut into Democrats’ numerical lead and the inroads reinforce Pennsylvania’s new state slogan – the “Swingiest of the Swing States.”
The GOP gained an additional 10,152 new registrants since the end of March, while Democrats have shed nearly 4,600. Just over 18,000 Democrats have opted to change party affiliation from D to R, while an additional 11,000 switched away from either party.
Philadelphia has seen nearly 2,000 voters switch away from the Democratic party during the first 4 1/2 months of 2024, while the GOP has only shed 366. In Allegheny County, just over 400 made the change away from Republican, while Dems lost more than two times that number (922)
Republicans have seen 5,800 former party members switch to a Democratic registration with another 8,100 opting away from either party.
Only smaller counties in the Commonwealth have seen more Republicans switch than Democrats, including Bedford (-13), Butler and Mifflin (-9), Huntingdon (-8), and Bradford (-7).
The map below shows each of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties with party registrations for both major parties as well as those not affiliated with any political party.
Highest Percentage of Republicans (by county)
- Fulton, 73.7
- Bedford, 73.1
- Potter, 71.9
- Juniata, 69.9
- Mifflin, 68.2
- Jefferson, 67.8
- Snyder, 67.2
- Perry, 67.1
- Tioga, 66.9
- Huntingdon, 66.5
Highest Percentage of Democrats (by county)
- Philadelphia, 74.8
- Allegheny, 56.3
- Lackawanna, 54.2
- Montgomery, 50.0
- Delaware, 49.9
- Erie, 45.9
- Lehigh, 45.7
- Dauphin, 44.5
- Monroe, 43.9
- Luzerne, 43.9
Highest Percentage of No Affiliation (by county)
- Pike, 16.3
- Lehigh, 16.0
- Monroe, 15.2
- Northampton, 14.9
- York, 14.1
- Centre, 13.8
- Wayne, 13.3
- Chester, 13.0
- Dauphin, 12.7
- Cumberland, 12.6
Swing Counties (difference between parties by county)
- Beaver (926, GOP favor)
- Cameron (1,092 GOP)
- Forest (1,121, GOP)
- Centre (1,226, Dems)
- Sullivan (1,530, GOP)
- Bucks (1,946, Dems)
- Montour (2,568, GOP)
- Luzerne (2,954, Dems)
- Greene (3,031, GOP)
- Berks (3,518, GOP)
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One Response
Those are notall swing counties except for Centre, Bucks, Berks Luzerne and Beaver. Some of those counties have very small populations so for example Sullivan having 1,530 more GOP is actually a 36% Republican advantage! A swing county would be where the PERCENTAGE of Dems and Reps are within a few points of each other, like Chester county.
Some of these recent registration changes were so Dems could vote for Haley in the Republican primary. It will be interesting to see if some of those voters move back to the Dem party over the next few months