Recently, a column by G. Terry Madonna and Michael L. Young attempted to make the dubious claim that the results of the 2015 statewide judicial elections would have an impact on the upcoming races.
These claims ignore critical facts about 2015, the statistical data and draw conclusions that I think will prove to be wrong. The 2015 judicial election results will have no effect on 2016 elections.
In 2015, liberal special interest groups including trial lawyers and unions spent the most amount of money in a judicial race in American history to win for Democrats. Ignoring the 5 to 1 spending advantage and the reality that 2016 spending will be much more evenly balanced is a terrible oversight of the defining factor in 2015 results.
As Madonna and Young only briefly acknowledged, Pennsylvania Republicans currently enjoy historic majorities in our Congressional, State Senate and State House delegations. The 2015 elections saw our county courthouse majority expand to 53 courthouses, and our State Senate now holds a 31 seat to 19 seats advantage after winning a special election that focused on failures of Governor Tom Wolf’s administration.
We also see U.S. Senator Pat Toomey in commanding position. In their own polling, Senator Toomey holds leads of 12 and 7 points over his opponents. The authors’ survey also found Senator Toomey to have the highest approval rating of any elected official in the Commonwealth.
The authors also gloss over the struggles amongst the Democrat challengers for U.S. Senate. Former Congressman and failed 2010 U.S. Senate candidate Joe Sestak, whose values are vastly out of step with Pennsylvania voters, decided to enter the race, driving Party leaders in Washington, D.C. and Harrisburg into a panic. After multiple public rejections from potential candidates, the Democrat establishment finally convinced former failed gubernatorial candidate and Wolf Chief of Staff Katie McGinty to ditch Pennsylvania in the middle of a budget crisis in order to run. McGinty’s last statewide campaign garnered her eight percent of the Democrat vote, signaling major problems with her ability to connect with the electorate.
Madonna and Young briefly acknowledge arguably the biggest stories of 2015: the massive Democrat scandals in our state row offices. Voters gave Democrats the opportunity to control our state row offices in 2012, and now two of those three offices have become mired in scandal, indictments, and convictions. Former Treasurer Rob McCord is currently awaiting sentencing for felonies he committed while in office. Attorney General Kathleen Kane’s scandals are so numerous they’re hard to keep straight; indictment, without a law license, and hearings are underway to determine if she can be removed from office. After such drastic failures, Democrats will certainly have a steep hill to climb to regain the public’s trust for these positions next year. Not to mention, the longer Tom Wolf is in office, the further his approval ratings fall.
Other pollsters are also looking at race for president between a Republican and Hillary Clinton. According to a Quinnipiac University poll, 62 percent of Pennsylvanians do not view Hillary Clinton as honest or trustworthy. From the ongoing email investigations to her never-ending series of scandals involving the Clinton Foundation, Pennsylvanians have serious questions about the Democrats’ presumptive nominee.
The October 15th the liberal-leaning Public Policy Polling survey shows Hillary Clinton losing to many Republican presidential candidates. The voter registration gap has closed in Pennsylvania from 2008 and 2012. Meanwhile, Pennsylvanians have the opportunity to watch Republicans have an open debate about the future of our country. More than 23 million viewers watch the Republican debates, while only 8 million tuned in to watch the Democrats.
Lastly, the authors and all Pennsylvanians must understand that comparing 2015 and 2016 is like comparing apples with automobiles. Current history proves that point as Democrats endured devastating losses to Republicans in the years between President Obama’s campaigns. Both the Republican and Democrat National Committees have already decided Pennsylvania will be a battleground state in 2016. As I write, Republicans are building critical infrastructure in a ground force that will combine with the energy and enthusiasm of our ticket that will lead to historic victories. We look forward to playing a key role in taking back the White House, re-electing Senator Pat Toomey, electing a fresh group of Republican row officers and expanding our majorities in Congress, the State Senate and State House next year.
Rob Gleason is the Chairman of the Republican Party of Pennsylvania.
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21 Responses
Why visitors still use to read news papers when in this technological world everything is available on net?
Mr. Gleason’s assessment is a bit off. Notably:
“We also see U.S. Senator Pat Toomey in commanding position. In their own polling, Senator Toomey holds leads of 12 and 7 points over his opponents. The authors’ survey also found Senator Toomey to have the highest approval rating of any elected official in the Commonwealth.”
In the latest Public Policy Poll (October 15th), “Toomey has leads of 41-38 over Joe Sestak, 43-36 over Katie McGinty, and 41-34 over John Fetterman. This is the first time McGinty and Fetterman have been polled this year but the numbers in a Sestak/Toomey contest have been pretty steady- Toomey was ahead by 4 points on both of our previous surveys.” 3 points is bit better than 7 points Mr. Gleason claims. Additionally, the poll included only 416 Democrats and 596 Republicans which obviously give the edge to Republicans, despite the commonwealth having one million more registered democrats than republicans.
Lastly, the comment that Toomey has the highest approval rating in the commonwealth appears to be either falsely skewed or a scary commentary on the rest of the commonwealth since the same public policy poll found:
“Only 28% of voters approve of the job Toomey is doing to 43% who disapprove, with a lot (29%) having no opinion one way or another.”
But hey, don’t let facts change the narrative.
Yes, it’s true that residents have issues with Hillary Clinton, but when she’s out up against the Republican best and brightest running for President, she wins every time. The Republicans of PA better hope that someone we haven’t heard from yet jumps into the race or PA will be holding their nose and pulling the lever for a Clinton 3rd term.
The 300 grand no bid contract was permitted by law because it is a professional service contract. This was the main issue in Cambria County and the Republicans lost because of the corruption. But no one picked up on this race only the local media and they treat Gleason with kid gloves. Gleason has a history of using his influence to get insurance contracts. Check out when he served on the turnpike commission in the late 90’s.
http://articles.philly.com/1997-10-28/news/25541175_1_turnpike-officials-pennsylvania-turnpike-commission
“..Gleason was attacked by Dems for receiving a 300 grand no bid contract from his loser commissioner…” sounds like echo of Budd Dwyer and Asher shaking down and/or taking a bribe from Torquato and CTA which ended up with federal indictments and everyone in federal prison . what’s wrong with Gleason’s GOP leadership could be cured by an aggressive federal grand jury investing the goings on in cambria county. the sooner the better…
Typical R hypocrisy. When Scott Walker wins his recall by 4%, but outspends his opponent 10 to 1, it’s just more ppl connecting with the brand, when Ds beat them at it, it’s look how outspent we were. So shameful. Beyond that the Koch network et al were ready to throw 10m at the supremes races and back down to only 2, most like bc gleason’s hand picked candidate were terrible. Don’t ever make an argument that Rs have less money than Ds, no reasonable person would ever buy it. And as a side, an incumbent up less than 10 a year out when the opposition doesn’t have a candidate, is normal. Toomey may win, but win a female at the top and female for PA senate, both first for the nation and our state, that’s going to be a strong message for those voter rich suburbs outside philly where the Dems have been cleaning clock in statewide races for a while now.
Ask him how many statewide offices the R’s have won since he has been chairman? ZERO would be in the ballpark.
Mr. Gleason-
You have produced the written equivalent of a pile of horseshit. You prognostications are transparently flawed as those of Karl Rove and other GOP shills predicting Republican victories (which never appeared).
The simple facts are these:
1) PA has been a reliable “Blue” state for presidential electoral votes since we helped elect Bill Clinton in 1992.
2) The Republican voters DO turnout in much better percentages for most elections, especially off-years. However, in a Presidential year, Dem turnout in PA exceeds 80% of voters who are flagged as “Active”. Given the Dem’s registration advantage, this leads to the Dems taking PA.
3) If you are referring to a potential statewide win by Toomey, that is more likely than not, but it isn’t because of some great GOP strategy. Simply put: Toomey is an incumbent with A LOT of money and is smart by keeping his extreme right-wing views hidden from public display. Idiots like Santorum are defined by their ridiculous statements, and Toomey avoids such associations.
4) “energy and enthusiasm of our ticket that will lead to historic victories” The GOP candidates are destroying the Republican brand by exposing the inherent racism in much of the right-wing of the party. This is not exciting.
5) “taking back the White House” LOL
The RNC commissioned a study of the 2012 election to determine what it would take to win the White House in 2016. The answer was: Increase the GOP share of the Hispanic vote
Trump and friends have destroyed that possiblity
6) The decision for president is based first on which candidates are “presidential”, that is: who can do the job.
Hillary is the ONLY candidate on either ticket who passes that test. Trustworthiness isn’t an issue when the GOP can’t field a viable candidate. No one wants Trump in delicate negotiations.
7) The Republican majorities in the state legislature are due to gerrymandering, not any solid base of GOP adoration. If the new Democratic PA Supremes decide to fight gerrymandering with non-partisan districts with simple shapes, the GOP reign of terror in PA will end with the following election.
Rob Gleason should focus on state races. He financed a loser commissioner in Cambria County and lost. Maybe the 500 grand would have been better used on the judicial races. Also Gleason was attacked by Dems for receiving a 300 grand no bid contract from his loser commissioner. Also that Commissioner divided the entire county and was a disaster.
The only reason the repukes have the seats is that they are severely “cookie cutter” gerrymandered very badly so it’s a built in advantage. Gleason fails to mention voters have grown tired in his own county of Cambria of his wine junkets, as well in neighboring Armstrong and westmoreland counties of deadbeat ineffective local govts. That’s why all three counties are now democratically controlled.
The only way the GOP will start winning in PA again is if Rob Gleason and the rest of his buddies are removed from the party leadership. His endorsed candidates got killed in 2012, 2013, 2014, and now 2015 too.
Hmmm Let’s review. Rob Gleason’s 2012 ticket-Completely Destroyed. Rob Gleason’s 2014 ticket with the only office he had anything to do with(Gov)—completely destroyed. Rob Gleason’s 2015 ticket–his handpicked Judges completely destroyed because they were woefully underfunded by him. Do you see a pattern here??? I can assure you every Democrat does. Rob Gleason is not a winner and has got to go. 2014 was a Republican year everywhere but Pa. If he stays 2016 will be a Republican year everywhere but Pa. Please go Rob—-I’ll buy that insurance policy…I will… I promise…just leave before we have no statewide elected officials left.
Yep, Rob. To FLA with you. With the rest of the ignorant white trash. See ya!!
He certainly didn’t waste any time banging this one out (or was it Megan?).
I hope Politics PA charged the GOP for this ad space.
Great opinion piece but the GOP still needs a new chair
McGinty needs to step aside. She will never beat Toomey. The Republicans already have her in a box over the $1.1 million she pocketed from just one corporation involved in her revolving door to riches biography. Plus, 6 years is far too long for her to spend in ONE job. She likes short-term assignments.
He fails to understand that the Democrat voters for the most part don’t really care about ongoing criminal investigations, failed initiatives, or ample evidence of poor leadership etc. They don’t vote based on logic, they vote based on emotion (and how they are told to feel about the issues they’re told to care about). They will pull that lever for anyone with a D after their name on the ballot. I don’t see a Republican winning a presidential race here anytime soon and a good chunk of the R base is disappointed in Toomey.
I like this observation:
“Voters gave Democrats the opportunity to control our state row offices in 2012, and now two of those three offices have become mired in scandal, indictments, and convictions. Former Treasurer Rob McCord is currently awaiting sentencing for felonies he committed while in office. Attorney General Kathleen Kane’s scandals are so numerous they’re hard to keep straight; indictment, without a law license, and hearings are underway to determine if she can be removed from office.”
Plus, Senator Washington and the Philly state reps who took envelopes full of cash. Who is insane enough to keep trusting Democrats in public office? Yes, you can say there’s corruption on both sides of the aisle, but in the last couple years it has been entirely on the Democrat side.
Poor Gleason trying to drum up business from PACs that will be staying far, far away from PA next summer. Time to move to Fla, Robbie!
Maybe Rob Gleason will win an important election for a change…