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Guest Column: Senate Democrats Poised to Win the Majority

This is shaping up to be a banner year for the Senate Democrats — with Tom Wolf consistently 25 points up in the polls (30 points in the most recent), and the control of the State House so far out of reach, the Senate Democrats are the only game in town for statewide and national Democratic donors and supporters. Combined with last cycle’s successes of picking up three seats, there is a palpable energy and confidence in the Democratic leadership, the campaign committee’s operation, the candidates, and the Senate Democrats’ chances.

Bolstered by the lack of serious races to put the Senate Democrats on defense, plus Wolf’s strength and Corbett’s weakness making him an anchor around the neck of every Republican in Pennsylvania, there is a strong likelihood that this will be the year where the Senate Democrats regain control of the chamber.

Currently, there are 23 Democrats and 27 Republicans in the Senate chamber. Therefore, 26 seats represents a majority, although if one party obtains 25 seats and the Governorship they would gain the majority as the Lt. Governor casts the tie-breaking vote.

Every two-years, half of the Senate comes up for election (the 25 odd-numbered districts run with the President at the top of the ticket, and the 25 even-numbered districts run with the Governor). Since this is a gubernatorial year, all of the even-numbered districts are up for re-election.

As Christopher Nicholas did in his guest column, I will only be looking at the 16 contested Senate races this November, and not discussing the races that are not on the ballot, or the ones where there is no opposition from the other party (for obvious reasons).

Seats that are likely to flip (in order of likelihood)

Note that all three of the Democrats in these races are currently on TV in their districts.

Senate District 26 – Republican Held – Leans Democratic

D – Kane
R – McGarrigle

Analysis: Any way you cut it, this is going to be the biggest race in the legislature. Even though the seat is Republican-held, this is a district that consistently votes five to ten points better for Democrats than the rest of the state does. Additionally, the Delaware County Democrats have made incredible gains over the last several years in registration, organization, fundraising, and candidate recruitment including the State House candidates, which will only help Democrat John Kane as they run strong.

Of course, any race this important, attracts major players and their check books: the Senate Majority Leader Republican Dominic Pileggi will be making the pitch that this seat needs to stay Republican-held or else he will lose his leadership position — a compelling argument to many Southeastern Pennsylvania donors of both parties who are concerned with losing influence to the more rural parts of the state and their decidedly anti-Philadelphia bend. On the Democratic side, this is being viewed as a battle for the heart and soul of Pennsylvania’s suburban working class, bringing out traditional Democratic groups from organized labor to issue-based groups like Planned Parenthood and Conservation Voters of Pennsylvania, who will all be looking to make this their marquee race — it doesn’t hurt that the John Kane is a labor leader in his own right.

Senate District 40 – Republican Held – Tossup

D – Aurand
R – Scavello

Analysis: Democrat Mark Aurand survived a hotly-contested Democratic primary proving that as a newcomer, he has the organization and political smarts needed to win. On his side are the changing demographics of Monroe and Northampton Counties with the influx of New York and New Jersey residents who make up the traditional Democratic base. The Republican, State Rep. Mario Scavello has a strong fundraising base, and has represented large portions of the district for some time. However, Scavello’s support for the transportation bill that raised gas taxes (a big issue when a lot of the district commutes to New York City for work), Corbett’s cuts to education, and standing with Corbett on many other issues will be tough to overcome.

Senate District 6 – Republican Held – Tossup

D – Rose
R – Tomlinson*

Analysis: Democrat Kim Rose came to run for the State Senate by beating the Republican party machine to unseat a popular incumbent Township Supervisor in the very red part of a very blue district. While she has her work cut out for her, once again facing a long-serving Republican in Senator Tommy Tomlinson, this looks to be her year. Tommy Tomlinson has taken a series of unpopular votes, specifically voting for the Corbett education cuts. Perhaps most damning are the votes he took in lock-step with the conservative wing of the Republican party on issues of women’s health (I assume, voting his heart, rather than his deep-blue district). Like Scavello, this race rises or falls on how convincingly Tomlinson is tied to Corbett, and Wolf maintaining his significant lead in the polls.

Seats to watch (in order of likelihood of flipping)

Senate District 44 – Republican Held – Leans Republican

D – Cozzone
R – Rafferty*

Analysis: Democrat Kathi Cozzone is an incredibly popular County Commissioner, and Republican John Rafferty’s transportation bill raised gas taxes on this largely rural district. Rafferty is well-known and well-funded, but his negatives will have to be overcome. Look for spending on the part of the Senate Democrats to try to move the numbers in this district.

Senate District 12 – Republican Held – Leans Republican

D – Damsker
R – Greenleaf*

Analysis: Democrat Ruth Damsker is a popular former County Commissioner and Senator Stewart Greenleaf (like Tomlinson) has taken a lot of votes on women’s health that are out of step with his district. A tough one for Damsker, but likely Greenleaf’s last run, putting Damsker in a great position for a special election win or a victory if Greenleaf doesn’t seek re-election in four years.

Senate District 10 – Republican Held – Leans Republican

D – Cickay
R – McIlhenny*

Analysis: Democrat Steve Cickay was the loyal party guy, putting his name on the ballot when no one else would. However, when a stronger candidate in Shaughnessy Naughton emerged, he decided to stay on the ballot, freezing most major Democratic donors out of the race. There’s still a chance in this Democratic-leaning district, but it’s going to be tough if Cickay doesn’t have money or organization.

Senate District 50 – Republican Held – Safe Republican

D – Muha
R – Brooks

Analysis: Democrat Mike Muha is a pillar of his Mercer County community and working the district hard. Given that this is an open seat, and Wolf is polling so well with the Republican base that makes up a lot of the district, this seat may be the sleeper of the year.

Seats that won’t flip

Senate District 2 – Democratic Held – Safe Democratic

D – Tartaglione*
R – Jenkins

Senate District 4 – Democratic Held – Safe Democratic

D – Haywood
R – Gilchrist

Senate District 32 – Democratic Held – Leans Democratic

D – Kula
R – Stefano

Analysis: Look for the Republicans to spend early to try to move numbers in this district, but success will be unlikely given registration, party performance, and the popularity of Democratic State Rep Deb Kula. Can’t blame them for trying as the conservative Southwestern part of the state looks like the only place for the Republicans to go for pickups while Pennsylvania becomes darker and darker blue. Unfortunately for them, this won’t be their seat.

Senate District 46 – Democratic Held – Safe Democratic

D – Solobay*
R – Bartolotta

Analysis: Democratic Senator Tim Solobay is popular and in a Democratic district. Like in the 32nd District, look for spending out of desperation rather than political analysis from the Republicans who are trying to find a place to gain ground.

Senate District 16 – Republican Held – Leans Republican

D – Felton
R – Browne*

Senate District 22 – Democratic Held – Safe Democratic

D – Blake*
R – Albert

Senate District 24 – Republican Held – Safe Republican

D – Hansen
R – Mensch*

Senate District 28 – Republican Held – Safe Republican

D – Small
R – Wagner*

Analysis: Republican Senator Scott Wagner will likely breeze through re-election but will be interesting to watch as he spends his fortune on Senate races other than his own, including his quixotic endeavor to help Republican Camera Bartolotta against Democratic Senator Tim Solobay in the 46th District.

Senate District 36 – Republican Held – Safe Republican

D – Schreckengost
R – Aument

Conclusion

As Christopher Nicholas pointed out, the Democrats 23 seats take a hit out of the box with the retirement of Democratic Senator Jim Ferlo in the 38th District which merged with Republican Senator Randy Vulakovich’s district, and Vulakovich will be running unopposed — effectively flipping a seat from Democratic to Republican through redistricting.

However, in a year where Governor Corbett will be such an impediment to Republicans, it looks like the top three “Likely to flip” seats flip, taking the Senate Democrats to 25 seats. Of course, this only happens with Tom Wolf winning, but with a Wolf win, the Democratic Lieutenant Governor will seal the Democratic majority in the State Senate with his 51st vote for the Democrats.

As Wolf continues to build his lead in the polls, don’t count out any of the races to watch. This could be an extraordinary year for the Senate Democrats.

Aren Platt is a veteran Democratic consultant, and is the Principal for Cycle Strategy whose clients include several Democratic State Senators and Democratic State Senate candidates including John Kane.

25 Responses

  1. There is just so much wrong with this article. Clearly the author thinks he can help his guy win by simply saying that he has the seat without basing this on any FACTS. He references Kane’s role as a labor leader but doesn’t explain how that he has used that position: namely to support laws that provide loopholes for union intimidation. The author conveniently ignores Pennsylvania’s clear and obvious reaction against this. More so, he doesn’t bother to pay any attention to Tom McGarrigle and his relationship with Pennsylvania. Unlike Kane, McGarrigle has done a lot of good for laborers and all Pennsylvanians, both as a small business owner and through saving the refineries. If Platt wants to write an assessment of politics, that’s his prerogative – but he should keep his personal relationships out of it if he wants to be taken seriously.

  2. This can’t possibly be good unbiased writing when the moron who wrote it consults on half of these races.

  3. How many of these races is Aren a consultant on? Isn’t that a bit of a conflict? He claims SD-26 is THE hottest race, but he’s a consultant to Kane, so of course its in his own interest to trumpet that’s its the biggest race, becuase it drives more dollars into the race and into his own pocket. PoliticsPA should post a disclaimer noting every race Aren is working on so readers know to take his analysis of those races with some extra grains of salt.

  4. Perhaps the first clue that this analysis is a joke is when the author can’t even spell an incumbent Senator’s name correctly. In the 10th SD, it’s McIlhinney. Not an easy name to be sure, but something a sharp political analyst might (just maybe) catch on to.

    In the 6th, Kim Rose couldn’t even help carry two incumbent Democratic Supervisors to victory in her own township; not exactly a power base to build from. Tomlinson, however, has consistently out-performed his party registration and his party’s standard bearer.

    And in the 12th, Damsker has no shot. Greenleaf is a moderate who represents the demographics of the district well, is nearly beloved, and will be here after November.

    I would say the author doesn’t know the Southeast, but he was down there for Daylin…so maybe he just doesn’t know, period.

  5. Aren Platt isn’t just a hack, he’s a loser of a hack. If it wasn’t for Daylin’s inferiority complex he may have actually hired someone with a brain at the SDCC. Aren has been lying to Smith and Teplitz who in turn have been lying to Costa–D’s will most likely lose 1 seat this go around. That’s right, in the worst republican year going Aren’s failed leadership will result in a net loss of 1 seat for the D’s. Time for this guy to go get a job at the state stores, maybe he’ll be able to run one of those because he sure as hell can’t run a political operation. Wasting money in SD6 and SD40. He should be playing at the one major seat that they have a chance at – SD26. Although, since Aren’s campaign started running the SD26 seat has nosedived into the lean Republican category.

    Failed leadership = typical democrat leadership

  6. Jenna D-
    To make gains in the house, we need new leadership in the HDCC that isn’t committed to the status quo and doing a half-assed job by leaving half of the flippable seats unchallenged.

    Jim-
    I was stating what needs to happen for a Dem victory. I think it’s a very tough race for the Dems, but there are a lot of registered R’s in Delco who vote Dem, particularly those who will be supporting Wolf. If Kane can make that connection, he has a fighting chance.

    I’m not as familiar with the other races, and was merely pointing out that in terms of Dem registration, they have better raw numbers than the 26th.

    Given the right alignment of the planets, and a TRUE coordinated campaign, the seats are winnable for the Dem, though it’s an uphill battle.

  7. Sorry Dave it’s not happening. You are asking for far too many crossover votes in the 26th. Scavello is too well known in the Monroe half of the new 40th. Tomlinson survived the Rendell landslides in the SE. In the 16th the heavily Democratic registration City of Allentown has very poor turnout in non-presidential elections and the Dems nominated a weak candidate.

  8. It’s exciting to see the Senate Dems in such a great position this year, but having worked for the HDCC several years ago, it’s sad to see so them so far behind.

    We really need a majority in both chambers, but I don’t think anyone knows when we’ll see meaningful gains in the House again.

  9. The 40th is an open seat, with a Dem registration majority (though poor turnout performance). With Corbett’s unpopularity, a campaign that ties the Republican to Corbett, and pushes large Dem turnout, and educates voters to vote straight ticket, should pick up coattails from Wolf.

    The 6th has an even better Dem/Rep ratio, and even turned out more Ds than Rs in the 2010 election.

    The 16th has an even stronger Dem/Rep ratio.

    These seats may be more flippable than the 26th with Kane, due to their better Dem ratios. If the candidates (including Wolf), and the party put together a good coordinated campaign.

    If the Dems have a 40% shot in each of the four races (26, 40, 6 and 16), then the chance of losing all 4 is 2.5% (that is 97.5% chance they win at least one).

    Everything for the Dems will come down to whether Wolf has large coattails to go with his big election night

  10. Most likely, none of the senate seats are going to switch hands, and Aren’s analysis is pretty weak, as criticized in the early posts.

    The 26th with Kane is considered one of the best hopes for the Dems. This is the seat the GOP seems most worried about.

    Kane has several points in his favor:
    1) It’s an open seat
    2) With Kane’s union credentials, the unions might actually work to support the Dems (rather than their usual betrayal by working for the GOP machine candidates)
    3) Kane’s a very genuine/regular guy who doesn’t come off as a complete bullsh*tter, which should help him connect to the voters.
    4) Kane’s a hard worker and he shows up at events big and small.
    5) He comes across as viable. That may seem silly, but some voters will pick they candidate they think will win over the candidate they prefer (as thought the ballot is horse race where they are trying to pick the winner).

    Arlen is completely wrong about any strength/improvements in organization/infrastructure by the DelcoDems. They have actually shrunk in terms of committee people who ran in May, and they are run poorly. All the registration improvement is due to influx from Philly, and not a lick of voter registration strategy from the party.

    The biggest problems I see Kane having are:
    1) relying upon hacks in the Delco Dems and SDCC for advice, over his own better judgement. If he lets them call the shots, he’ll be in trouble.
    2) He’s facing a massive GOP voter advantage. Turnout will likely be around 50K Republicans, 35K Dems and 6K Independents. Kane needs to make huge inroads with the moderate GOP voters. Even if he got every Dem and Ind to vote for him, he’d have to pull in 5K (10%) of the GOP vote at a bare minimum. In reality, he will need a lot more than that to make up for Dems/Ind who vote GOP or skip the down-ballot races. I’d say he’d have to turn at least 8K Republicans to him, and increase Dem turnout by a few thousand.
    3) The Delco GOP Machine is going to pull out all the stops. The know the Gov race is over, so they aren’t going to waste any time/resources helping Corbett.

  11. Love how the New Yorkers and New Jersey folks run away from their Democrat Disasters, but they still vote Dem in Pennsylvania. Hey, if the high taxes, bad government, lack of freedom, poor economy and crappy housing markets of New York and NJ caused you to run away to PA, then why try to re-create those same problems all over again by VOTING Democrat all over again? Yeesh!

  12. Love how the New Yorkers and New Jersey folks run away from their Democrat Disasters, but they still vote Dem in Pennsylvania. Hey, if the high taxes, bad government, lack of freedom, poor economy and crappy housing markets of New York and NJ caused you to run away to PA, then why try to re-create those same problems all over again by citing Democrat all over again? Yeesh!

  13. Democrat logic: I’m in the union so I have to support democrats, “My job moved down south because my company was getting taxed too much.” Democrats, More taxes less freedom.

  14. Not for nothing but if the SDCC needs to pick up 3 to take.full control of the Senate or 2 to make it even with the LG tie breaker, why is this article claiming that they have a shot when the analysis has the Republicans with a 2 race lead out of 16 races.

    And let’s be honest, the SDCC is the only reason some of these candidates are running TV spots. They are trying to see who has at least an outside shot of making the race competitive. Kimberly Rose is running against Tomlinson and has no chance. Former congressman Pete Kostmeyer couldn’t beat him in a wave election of 2006. The writer should make that race ridiculously safe republican.

  15. So the poster child for pro-choice Republicans is suddenly in trouble because of his votes on “women’s health”? Great analysis. No, really. Fantastic.

  16. I would loved to have seen Aren’s memo to Daylin and donors regarding how to win PA 13. Donors: this is Aren Platt. Despite all we know about NE Philly not exactly being a bastion of social liberalism lets run the most aggressively pro choice campaign in the state. It don’t matter that there is not a shred of evidence that Northeast Philly voters decide on choice but screw it lets do it anyway. Let’s hope Aren has learned from his recent naive errors. Winning the senate is very important for governor Wolf and all Democrats.

  17. Aren Platt made Daylin Leach, if you knew Daylin before he met Aren It was a totally different story. Aren I SUPPORT YOU

  18. Actually this article is full of false premises and inaccuracies, please pay this no mind and vote with a clear head this November.

  19. Good column, but let’s face it, these Dems or Repubs won’t don’t crap for us. We still have the same cookie cutter candidates.

  20. Said the guy who can’t get a job outside of pa, who got crushed in a House race, and who had worked to keep senate democrats in the minority for years. If it weren’t for Leach, this guy would be unemployable.

  21. While it’s not surprising that a democratic consultant thinks that the democrats will win the state senate it’s clear the author must be sharing some supplies from Senator Leach’s recent taxpayer funded trip to Colorado.

    In SD 32(Mislabeled by the party hack author as SD30), party performance doesn’t swing the Dems way, only Kathleen Kane has won the district since 2008 in this district. Stefano has been up on TV since mid august and only this week has the uninspiring Kula made a move.(Not that you’d know that from this site)

    The other argument against his article is if Corbett was such a drag on the ticket wouldn’t the congressional seats in the SE be more competitive? Looking at the national rankings it’s clear that serious national observers have moved those seats into the republican column. While Aren is looking thru his rose colored glasses Republicans are looking at a 28 or 29 seat majority in the State Senate.

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