By a 32 point margin, voters say Gov. Tom Corbett does not deserve re-election according to the latest survey from Republican firm Harper Polling.
56% percent of respondents said it was time for someone else to lead the state, versus 24% who said Corbett deserves another term. Only 43% of Republicans said Corbett has earned a second term.
“The results of three poll questions illustrate the challenges Governor Tom Corbett faces in pursuit of reelection,” wrote pollster Brock McCleary.
“The baseline number for any generic Republican candidate running for Governor is 40% in this survey. Governor Corbett has the support of 24% of the electorate who believe he deserves re-election.”
Corbett does worse than a generic Republican in a GOP-vs-Dem matchup. 41% of respondents said they’d vote for a Democrat versus 40% who said they’d support a Republican in such a contest.
The generic ballot question found an 18-point gender gap: men support a generic GOP candidate by 7 points, 42% to 35%. Women back a generic Democrat by 11 points, 48% to 37%.
A plurality agreed that the economy is getting worse.
Harper surveyed 813 likely voters via interactive voice response from July 1-2. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4%. 45% of respondents identified as Democrats and 42% as Republicans.
Generally, the results of any poll conducted by a partisan pollster should be taken with a grain of salt. In this case, the phrasing of poll questions pertaining to the gubernatorial contest appears to be totally neutral.
The pollster tested two versions of a question about whether the state should expand Medicaid. The version that mentioned President Obama by name saw a 10% dropoff in support.
Version 1: “Do you agree or disagree that the state of Pennsylvania should expand Medicaid coverage for low-income individuals, as called for under the new health care law known as the Affordable Care Act?”
Version 2: “Do you agree or disagree that the state of Pennsylvania should expand Medicaid coverage for low-income individuals, as called for under President Obama’s new health care law?”
But even the less popular Obama version of the question saw majority support for expansion, 52% to 42%.
Further results of the poll, including public opinions related to the state budget, were released Wednesday.