Harper Poll: Toomey Beats Kane or Sestak in 2016

Sen. Toomey

Sen. Toomey

According to a Harper Polling survey, Senator Pat Toomey would win reelection against either Attorney General Kathleen Kane or his 2010 opponent and former Congressman Joe Sestak.

In a hypothetical race against Toomey, Kane performs better than Sestak but still loses, 49% to 44%. Sestak loses 49% to 42%.

Party affiliation in this poll broke down to 43% Republican, 44% Democrat and 13% Independent or Other. Among independents, Toomey leads Kane by 8% and Sestak by 18%.

Toomey performs better than his Pennsylvanian colleague, Senator Bob Casey, when asked whether each senator is part of problem or solution to the political problems of Washington, although both are given negative results.

After less than one term, 41% percent of voters perceive Toomey as “part of the problem” in Washington, 38% view him as “part of the solution”  and 21% are unsure. For Casey, 44% of voters perceive him as part of the problem while 35% believe he is part of solution.

When analyzing these results, it’s important to note that Harper Polling is itself a Republican firm and is affiliated with Long Nyquist and Associates, a GOP consulting firm.

The sample size for the survey is 604 likely voters and the margin of error is +/-4%.   The Interactive Voice Response (IVR) automated telephone survey was conducted December 21-22, 2013 by Harper Polling.  The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.


January 2nd, 2014 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Senate, Top Stories | 15 Comments

15 thoughts on “Harper Poll: Toomey Beats Kane or Sestak in 2016”

  1. peggy graham says:

    Toomey voted against anything that would help vets. For that alone he should be humiliated

  2. Bill Tyson says:

    If you like radical, “my way or the highway” politcians responsible for setting the “doing nothing” in Congress, Toomey’s your man !

    Toomey was a leader of the gang who hurt our nation’s credit rating in 2011.

    Toomey was also a key Supercommittee Member who created the “sequester” which cuts spending indiscriminately, which has led among other things, to a de-funding of federal scientific research, one of the source of new jobs.

    I think it’s fair to say that Toomey is a tax-cutting / de-regulating fanatic, who is very close to Governor Brownback, who has created a fiscal disaster in the state of Kanasas, and whose re-election in a very conservative state is in jeopardy

  3. over polluted says:

    Ain’t this guy from Rhode Island or some New England state? Go home Toomey and stay there. BTW take your litter with ya.

  4. Pa. Patriot says:

    Sorry Dems.,.,paybacks are a bitch.if you think the voting public is going to back your liberal platforms after 6 years of Obamination your pipe dreaming..The R’s will be dragging their teabags all over your faces in the next two general elections. You can feel it coming.

  5. mak says:

    Meh. Though I wouldn’t reflexively reject an IVR poll (PPP, the Dem pollster whose methods Harper is expressly adopting, is an IVR pollster, but also one of the most accurate of the last few election cycles), I still wouldn’t lend much weight to this one, given that Harper is untested and its affiliations are suspect. Not sure what the point of this was, other than to get work from Toomey and other R’s for 2014 and 2016.
    More importantly, even if the poll is an accurate snapshot of this moment, Toomey’s goose is still cooked because: (a) he, like Santorum, is the type of R candidate who would actually drive Dems to the polls to vote against him; and (b) if the candidate is Kane, she will have the express and generous backing of the Clinton machine. Assuming Hillary runs in 2016, Toomey will lose to Kane by 20 points.

  6. John Bussom says:

    After less than one term, 41% percent of voters perceive Toomey as “part of the problem” in Washington, that was yesterdays news
    Today you can add another 15% because of his stance of Flood Insurance rates, sorry Toomey but you need to go back home!

  7. Bob-
    Have you ever seen a sign: “DETOUR: BRIDGE OUT” ?
    They try to close the bridges that need repair before they collapse. For a lot of bridges, Corbett just had them put up signs with lower weight limits.

    You’re from Lower Merion/Ardmore area. The Church Road bridge was out for years, until the funds came to fix it.

    Did your street get plowed today? How about your neighbors and the streets along businesses? Tax dollars at work.

    Please stop being so completely ignorant about basic functions of government.

    Learn How to Read, Matt and Lizzard-
    Toomey barely won in 2010, thanks to a terrible Gov candidate, a GOP wave year, and a Dem opponent who refused any efforts to heal the party after his divisive primary.

    In 2016, there will be presidential turnout levels and a Dem governor. Toomey’s goose is cooked.

  8. Learn How to Read says:

    Directly from the article:

    When analyzing these results, it’s important to note that Harper Polling is itself a Republican firm and is affiliated with Long Nyquist and Associates, a GOP consulting firm.

  9. I don’t think there are too many people knowledgeable of the political personnel in Harrisburg who will give much weight to a poll done by Republican lobbyists Todd Nyquist and Mike Long. I suspect Brittany Foster is young and not jaded and cynical and Keegan Gibson is employed by Jeff Jubelirer, son of former state senator and President Pro Tem of the Senate.

    I read this as an effort to convince the shallow, superficial and gullible media and voters that Tom Corbett’s $2.3 Bbillion Dollar Tax Increase is wildly popular with voters and will drive him to November victory.
    Perhaps it will convince the shallow and superficial, gullible stenographers in the Harrisburg media that this was much needed legislation.

    But the average voter on the street? Not likely?

    How many times have you, personally, seen “crumbling roads” or “bridges falling down”? Or have your heard relatives, friends, colleagues or associates tell you of the horrors of “crumbling roads” and “bridges falling down” encountered in their travels? In fact, when has any of us read of a media report of a “crumbling road” or a “bridge falling down.”? Common experience tells us that this was a tax increase and spending program to benefit political profiteers like lobbyists, Nyquist and Long, and their clients.
    Long and Nyquist’s staff includes Megan Callahan wife of Mike Turzai’s chief of staff is Krystjan Callahan.

    Who is Megan (Mrs. Andrew) Crompton? Google Andrew Crompton and Republican (?) Senator Joseph Scarnati. Let me say it make lobbying a bit easier when you are living with the person you are lobbying.

    Did you know Mike Long’s son works for Republican (?)Sen. Scarnati.

    More on two faced, double talking Todd Nyquist and Mike Long; http://triblive.com/state/pennsylvania/3930754-74/campaign-nyquist-privatization#axzz2RnwknJCt
    Ryan “The Infidel” Shafik is a gold mine of information and insight about Republican Hackocracy.

    Their web page a road map of conflicts of interest…all legal, however. Good for them, not so good for The Forgotten Taxpayer.

    Siohan Vance? Is that Sen. Patricia “Pro Life but Not Pro Taxpayer” Vance’s grandson?

  10. Matt says:

    Woah those party affiliation splits are crazy.. Pennsylvania only a +1 Democrat state?
    According to Gallup that would align them with North Dakota, Mississippi and South Carolina in D/R ratio (PA is a +16 D state). On top of that they used an automated phone messaging system, meaning only landlines were called, not cellphones. Really awful poll, most likely funded by a GOP group of some sort looking for a boost to Toomey’s re-election campaign. I would expect this site to be able to weed out the garbage, however.

  11. The Lizard says:

    Automated poll run by a firm owned by a Republican strategist. Duh. . . .

  12. Larry-
    Toomey is smart. But, he consistently backs bad policies that hurt women, the working poor, and minorities as well as bad GOP foreign policy ideas.

  13. Larry says:

    Toomey is considered one of the most intelligent people in the Senate, especially on matters of finance. Compared to Toomey, Kane has the intellect and experience of a high school student.

  14. David Diano says:

    Considering another early poll showed Kane beating Toomey.

    This poll used automated call, which is inherently less reliable because you don’t know who picked up the phone.

    Also, what “likely voter” model are they using this far out? There are going to be hundreds of thousands of new Dems registered for the 2016 presidential (and A LOT of them women if Hillary runs).

    What this poll does show is Sestak’s fading popularity 1/3 of the way between his last defeat and the 2016 election.

    The race is going to be A LOT closer than 5 or 6 points, and in Presidential year the Dems will have the advantage.

  15. delco observer says:

    Outlier…Toomey can’t hide his past votes and his beliefs enough to win in PA in a presidential year.

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