Tom Wolf maintains a commanding lead in the Democratic primary for Governor according to the latest Harper poll.
According to their survey, if the election we’re held today 50% of respondents would support Wolf.
Allyson Schwartz and Rob McCord are tied in second place, each with 15%. Katie McGinty was chosen by 5% of voters.
16% of respondents answered that they were “not sure” who they would vote for.
Harper last surveyed the race back in February. In that poll, Wolf was also the leader with 40% of the vote. Schwartz had 14%, McCord 8% and McGinty 6%. Former candidates Jack Wagner and John Hanger each received 7%. Back then, 19% of respondents were undecided.
Update: Harper Polling has released more information from their survey, specifically the favorability ratings and reach of each candidate and their campaign.
According to Harper, 90% of likely Democratic primary voters have heard of Tom Wolf. Of those people 57% have a more favorable opinion of the former Department of Revenue Secretary while just 17% have a less favorable opinion.
Meanwhile, 59% have heard of McCord and their perception on the State Treasurer is split 40% to 42% favorable/unfavorable. 58% are aware of Allyson Schwartz and they break down 45%-38% while 44% have heard of Katie McGinty and she has a healthy 53%-27% favorable/unfavorable rating among them.
Finally, Harper asked all the respondents for their overall impressions of the four Democratic candidates. Wolf won out again (67% favorable, 13% unfavorable, 20% not sure) with Schwartz (36%/25%/29%), McCord (35%/30%/35%) and McGinty (27%/32%/40%) all trailing.
The sample size for the survey is 559 likely voters and the margin of error is +/-4.14%. The Interactive Voice Response (IVR) automated telephone survey was conducted May 12-13, 2014 by Harper Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.
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10 Responses
The unfavorable ratings revealed in this poll tell a very fascinating story, one that I believe will forever haunt the McCord campaign. McCord has the highest unfavorable rating than any other candidate, including Schwartz and yet he is still considered relatively unknown to voters especially compared to his opponents. That means, McCord is less known and less liked. In my professional opinion his unfavorable number is likely to only increase over the next few days. That’s very telling and being 6 days out before the election, an insurmountable disadvantage. I believe post-election analysis, which in some ways has already begun, will harshly criticize the McCord campaign strategy and will be a somewhat “what not to do” for future candidates, at least in Pennsylvania. McCord failed to introduce himself to the state; instead his only message was “don’t vote for the other guy.” The nail in the coffin for McCord was unapologetically and viciously going negative, even when elder party leaders and organizations like Fact Check called him out on it, McCord continues to engage in what many consider divisive and dirty politics. He came off as pompous during the debates; not like someone who can get things done or even someone you’d want to have a beer with. Ultimately, McCord failed to provide a plan to voters to move the commonwealth in a new direction and therefore failed to connect with voters or have a resonating message other than, “don’t vote for him, vote for me.”
WOW McCord, looks like those racist ads worked wonders at destroying your own campaign. Great way to “start a conversation.”
Not only did you sink you gubernatorial campaign, but you’re done politically. Good riddance!
Looks like a lock for Tom “The Tax Collector” Wolf.
Prediction: Wolf will lose the Primary.
JD:
Although things are always subject to change in politics, this political scientist agrees with you!
Is some CAPITOL Journalist, who puts on big boy pants going to cover this story? Shouldn’t Charly Zogby join the dust bin of the Corbett Administration? Isn’t Zogby spending too much time protecting the Cyber Charter School Welfare Queens to look after the interests of the forgotten PA taxpayer? http://www.keystonepolitics.com/2014/05/pa-republicans-accidentally-lost-87m-dollars-lies-tom-wolf/
Reading the full analysis of the F&M poll released today is very interesting from a political science standpoint. McCord’s unfavorable ratings dramatically increased. His negative campaign strategy has without a doubt backfired, badly. It’s a great lesson for future statewide candidates, especially for 2016 senate and presidential candidates; Pennsylvanian’s do not respond well to negative campaigns or misleading attack ads. In my professional opinion, again from strictly a political science point of view, McCord has severely hindered his ability to win any future statewide race.
http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/media_items/may-2014-f-m-poll.original.pdf
Done. Cooked. Sauced. Ready to serve.
Time for Democrats to unite to beat the nightmare that is our present Governor.
Oliver Queen
I have been a political professional for more than 25 years, and I have worked with dozens of different pollsters. Polls results are based on statistics, not on what you want them to be. Without seeing the methodology or statistical modeling, let me explain basic things about how polls work.
Harper surveyed just 7 and 8 days before election day. This results in a much lower rate of undecided voters.
Harper polls likely voters, not just all registered voters. Using likely voters instead of registered voters results in a lower number of undecided voters because those who are marginal voters are much more likely to be undecided just a week before the election. In a low turnout election and this close to election day, the likely voter numbers are far more important than registered voters. In a poll of registered voters, the numbers much more important than general horserace numbers are subgroups for likely voters and numbers with leaners.
But let’s double the undecided voters to 32% and take them all from Wolf (that is an absurd polling model every professional would laugh at). Wolf still would have 34%, Schwartz 15%, McCord 15%, McGinty 15%. Wolf still would be beating Schwartz and McCord by 19%, more support than Schwartz and McCord combined (and you don’t get to combine results in elections), even if you take away 16% (larger % than support either Schwartz or McCord has).
It’s over people. Learn to accept it.
Only 16% undecided? I’m not so sure about that …