A poll commissioned by Rep. Margo Davidson (D-Delaware) shows her with a huge lead over her challenger, Billy Smith.
In the poll executed by Municipoll, Davidson took 56% of the vote, compared to Smith’s 13%. 31% were still undecided on their choice in the Democratic primary. Dafan Zhang, another competitor in the field was not polled.
Davidson’s favorability rating was also high in these results; 53% said they had a favorable view, 13% said unfavorable and 34% weren’t sure.
“The survey reflects Margo’s hard work, dedication and commitment to serving the people of the district,” Shannon Marietta, Davidson’s campaign manager said. “She will continue to work hard and speak to voters about their concerns and hopes for the future.”
Smith remains mostly an unknown at this point; 16% said they had a favorable view, 13% said they had an unfavorable view and the majority, 71%, said they didn’t know or weren’t sure.
He remains undeterred by the results of this poll.
“The last several months I’ve knocked on doors and spoken with over two thousand voters,” Smith told PoliticsPA. “These voters tell me that they care about fully funding our public schools, keeping school vouchers out of our communities, defending women’s reproductive rights, and fighting Tom Corbett’s extreme agenda – that’s exactly what I intend to do as State Representative.”
Davidson has held the seat since 2011, but has made several high profile votes against Democrats, including on the issues of abortion and school vouchers. Fellow Democratic Rep. Brian Sims endorsed Smith over Davidson in this primary.
Municipoll conducted a district-wide survey of 664 likely Democratic Primary Election voters on behalf of the Margo Davidson for State Representative campaign. The poll was conducted February 2 – 6, 2014 using IVR technology and has a margin of error of +/- 3.75 percent in 95 out of 100 cases.
As always, internal polls should be taken with a grain of salt and this polling memo was not accompanied by the survey instrument in full, or cross tabulations.
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8 Responses
Just a voter-
Margo is beatable if Billy can educate the voters on her record on Democratic issues.
Margo’s basic defense is ignoring her voting record and listing all the ‘bacon’ she’s brought into the district.
I guess it’s going to be a question of how much people like ‘bacon’ over Democratic party core issues.
I think Margo is unbeatable in her district, but if she wants to do anything outside of the 164th, she will need to compile a more progressive voting record.
JenS/JennySmith/JennySmitty/ShannonMariettta I think Margo is unbeatable in her district, but if she wants to do anything else, she will need to compile a more progressive voting record.
This poll and the release of these poll results at this stage in the process is a transparent attempt to: (1) Divert attention from Rep Davidson’s behavior at Dem Convention 6 days ago; and (2) slow down the momentum Smith’s campaign has gained. It also pretty much gives Rep. Davidson a built in excuse not to debate either candidate running against her…
JenS
Billy could get his own push poll with the same results.
Wait for an independent poll
Sorry David but according to Billy’s quote here, he has spoken with over 2000 voters. If his message was resonating then you would see it in the polls. So either Billy’s message isn’t working or he hasn’t really talked to that many voters–either way the answer is a bad one for Billy. There is almost no possible way for Billy to overcome that gap. Even if he wins 100% of undecided voters (which is impossible) he still loses! And on top of that, there is another primary challenger with an identical message. It’s just not happening…
Internal poll practically means “poll taken in campaign office”. 🙂
What questions were asked?
I doubt there was a question: Do you support diverting money from public schools for vouchers and charter schools profiteering?
I understand the strategy here: overwhelming force to push/promote Margo. Her campaign manager is top-notch and very aggressive.
Billy is door-knocking aggressively. It’s also a solid strategy.
Billy and Margo have clear differences on the issues, and the voters will have a choice. With redistricting, there are new areas where Margo is not “the incumbent”.
I think the race will be close.
Wow… so much for all the billy smith bluster. You can put that margin in the ‘insurmountable’ category.