An internal poll released by the campaign shows Democrat Janelle Stelson within the margin of error against six-term incumbent Republican Scott Perry for the 10th Congressional District seat.

The survey, conducted by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP), finds Perry receiving 45 percent support from the 532 respondents, while Stelson pulled in 43%, well within the +/-4.3% MOE. An additional 12 percent were undecided.

Stelson, the former WGAL-TV news anchor, has name recognition on her side after serving as a broadcast journalist in the region for more than three decades. According to PPP, she has a net positive favorability rating of 6 points (33-27) among those who did have an opinion of her.

Perry’s numbers, however, are underwater with -4 job approval and -5 favorability ratings. Thirty-nine percent of those surveyed approved the performance of the congressman, while 44 percent felt opposite.

The information released by the campaign from PPP also indicated the importance that reproductive rights will play in the race, as nearly 2-in-3 (65%) respondents said they would oppose a national ban on abortion, while just 1-in-6 (16%) would support such a ban. Nearly half of the Republicans (48%) and two-thirds of the independents (645) queried said they would oppose such a move.

During PoliticsPA’s Voices of Reason podcast, Berwood Yost, director of the Floyd Institute for Public Policy and Center for Public Research at Franklin & Marshall College, advised political observers to use caution when looking at “the horse race.”

“Stop looking at the horse race,” he said. “That is the most volatile and difficult item to understand for us. We ask a host of other questions and those tend to be much more stable. So whether it’s the direction of the state, whether it’s the people’s personal finances, whether it’s the most important issue facing the voter … there are any number of indicators that we ask that tend to relatively stable from survey to survey.

“I would say that if you’re evaluating a poll and trying to understand that poll, look at its methods.”

Stelson’s campaign released a pre-primary poll that was commissioned in February that showed her leading the other five Democratic candidates for the nomination by 20 points. That turned out to be the unofficial final margin over runner-up Mike O’Brien.

According to pollster ratings compiled by 538.com that the organization bases on the historical track record and methodological transparency of each polling firm’s polls, PPP is rated 206th out of 277 in its survey. Its 1.4 rating out of three is a gauge by 538 as to its confidence in its work in 537 total polls.

By comparison, the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion is rated 11th, while Franklin & Marshall comes in at No. 57. Susquehanna Polling & Research, a group that also does substantial deal Pennsylvania polling, ranks 62nd.

PPP surveyed 532 voters from Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District from April 24-25, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 4.3%. Fifty-eight percent of interviews for the survey were conducted by text message and 42% by telephone.