It’s a conundrum for many. As Donald Trump’s poll numbers proceed to sink, Republicans nonetheless continue posting voter registration gains in key states.
We examined this phenomenon back in June and now David Wasserman of FiveThirtyEight has taken an even more in-depth look at the issue.
“Party registration can often be a lagging, rather than leading, indicator,” Wasserman explains. “Examining the trends in these states under a microscope reveals that what’s happening is more a mix of party switching, natural replacement and removal of inactive Democratic voters from the rolls than a feverish Trump effort to expand the electorate.”
Wasserman tracked the ninety counties in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina where there’s been a more than 5% change in voter registration stats. He found that the GOP voter share in eighty-eight of those counties still trails Romney’s 2012 performance.
“Overall, the Keystone State is a bit of a mixed bag so far,” Wasserman concludes. “Come November, the wave of party-switching could prove meaningful in places where Clinton still has a lot of room to fall from Obama’s 2012 showings, like Wilkes-Barre and Johnstown. But usefully, Pennsylvania also breaks down new registrations by party — and among voters freshly added to the rolls in 2016, Democrats are outpacing Republicans 201,330 to 159,293.”
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14 Responses
Hopefully the democrats can take the senate for two years in 2016 before 2018 in which the republicans probably will buy it back for the next decade.
It would be very beneficial if the democrats had the senate from 2016 to 2018. In 2018′ it probably will swing right and be locked Republican for a decade.
Fair enough.
LOL …Very true …. but the FOXtard troll doesn’t have any real points …. Just alt-right talking points …. And I doubt Samuel Clemens ever called suggested that people that write under a pen name are not “real men” like the FOXtard troll has.
Are Samuel Clemens’ books less good or his social commentary less searing because he wrote them under the pen name of Mark Twain? Not to suggest that most of the posters on this site could hold a candle to Mr.Clemens/Twain. But a good point made anonymously is still a good point.
So true. I wouldn’t care if he didn’t challenge people who do not post under their real name (like I do) to be “real men” and use their real names. Aaron promptly called him out on it — and that was weeks ago. Still no “real name” from the shady troll who claims to be a “real man.”
In due time, there may be a lawyer here posting the troll’s real name. You see – the troll posted lies about a real person (Brett Cott). Can’t wait.
He won’t say his real name. Because he is a pussy-ass coward. Right, bitch-boy??
LOL @ you!!
What’s your name,coward?
Yeah, “gulag Pittsburgh” is not really Frank Little of Pittsburgh who — coincidentally — also has a major problem with Cynthia Baldwin and the Pittsburgh courts. Just a major coincidence, just like me and Brett.
Anyone here have a dictionary I can borrow??
gulag – You know I love you. Just ignore the imitator below. He thinks I am somebody else too. Let him waste his time. He is just a FOXtard with a little retarded child and a job at the rest-stop blowing truck-drivers.
Speaking of LOSERS, ….
https://fundrazr.com/campaigns/4zDjf
Trump and Toomey are LOSERS. And that also goes for that what’s-his-name guy that got a haircut recently.
Trump and Toomey are one HOT ticket ….. LOL …..