June 27, 2024.

A day that will live in infamy.

As President Joe Biden looks to recover from a disastrous debate against former President Donald Trump, questions abound as to what could happen next.

Would Biden step aside and allow another candidate to carry the Democratic Party banner into battle in November? Who would … who could that candidate be? Would it be determined in the days after Biden steps aside … or would it take place at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago from August 19-22?

And all that could just be speculation, as Biden may continue to show his resolve and remain in the race.

So what comes next?

Biden’s Public Appearances

Thursday night’s press conference was being widely viewed as the most important in the president’s political career. The stakes are high and every movement, every sentence from Biden will draw increased scrutiny.

“While there is no question there is increased anxiety following the debate, we are not seeing this translate into a drastic shift in vote share,” said Jen O’Malley Dillon, Campaign Chair for Biden-Harris. “In fact, this morning, a new ABC/Ipsos poll showed a tied race with no change since April.

“Our path centers on reminding voters that this election will be a choice between Joe Biden, who is fighting to move our country forward and make life better for working people, and Donald Trump, who is focused on his own revenge and retribution with no concern for who he hurts.”

For many, though, the damage is already done. One former Democratic official said, “If he does push-ups on stage, it doesn’t matter.”

Should Biden “pass” tonight’s test of his ability to do the job, the scrutiny will shift to the next public appearance … and the next. The question becomes whether he can win back the lost confidence of Democrats.

Ten House Democrats have already called for Biden to step aside with many more considering such a move.

Who Takes The Keys Away?

Anyone with an aging parent knows the difficulty of taking away the keys to their car when concerns for their safety rise above the parent’s desire to continue having the freedom to get behind the wheel and go.

There are many parallels in this analogy.

Biden will turn 82 fifteen days after the November 5 general election. Dwight Eisenhower was the first president to hit the age of 70 while in the White House, while Ronald Reagan was the first to turn 70 while in his first term.

Trump celebrated his 78th birthday on June 14 and would become the oldest Republican president if reelected.

Pundits report that Biden has a tight inner circle and only his wife, Jill, his sister, Valerie, and his son, Hunter, carry much sway with the 46th president.

Do not discount, however, the influence that Democratic leaders such as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (age 73), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (53), and former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (84) hold.

Pelosi seemed to provide Biden, who has been demonstrative about his desire to stay in the race, with space during a Wednesday appearance on Morning Joe, stating that “We’re all encouraging him to to make that decision because time is running short,” adding that he is “beloved” and “respected” and “people want him to make that decision, not me.” When asked whether she wants Biden to run, Pelosi said: “I want him to do whatever he decides to do. And that’s the way it is. Whatever he decides we go with.”

With pressure growing on leadership to do what is necessary to keep the White House and the Senate majority, while flipping the House, keep an eye on the trio. As contemporaries, Schumer and Pelosi would be able to go to Biden and tell him that time is up, while Jeffries would speak for a younger generation of Democratic politicians.

Biden Steps Aside Prior to the Convention, Now What?

Should Biden decide that he would not pursue a second term, it is assumed that Vice President Kamala Harris would rise to the top of the ticket. Certainly she is well-positioned to become the nominee, but she also has access to something that no other Democratic candidate would – $91 million.

That is the figure that has been raised by the Biden-Harris campaign as of May 30 and belongs to the Biden-Harris ticket alone. So if Harris becomes the candidate, she would have instant access to the funds and would not miss a beat financially.

Any other candidate would have access to funds from the Democratic National Committee and other blue-leaning groups, but would be in a much-deeper financial hole than Harris would be at the outset.

The Biden-Harris campaign could transfer that $91 million to a federal super PAC, which could spend it on advertising for the new Democratic ticket. That would be suboptimal, because money at an outside group can’t be controlled directly by the campaign, and super PACs have to pay higher rates for advertising time. But the money would not go to total waste.

And who could a non-Harris candidate look like?

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Witmer has already stated that she will not be a candidate to replace Biden. Other names being floated as potential candidates include California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, while Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has had his name tossed about.

An Open Convention?

Some are calling for an “open” Convention in Chicago, providing all possible options to be put on the table, allowing delegates to have a say in the Democratic candidate. Even for this to occur, it would require Biden to release his accumulated delegates to “vote their conscience.”

DNC Convention rules state that during the first ballot, “All delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.”

On the second and any ensuing ballot, “all pledged and automatic delegates will be permitted to vote for a presidential candidate on all subsequent ballots until a nominee is chosen.”

The disparate factions of the Democratic Party would be on full display during an “open” convention.

Biden Steps Aside After the National Convention. Now What?

The DNC rules cover the possibility a filling a vacancy on the national ticket due to death, resignation or disability of a nominee after the adjournment of the National Convention.

“The National Chairperson of the Democratic National Committee shall confer with the Democratic leadership of the United States Congress (Schumer, Jeffries) and the Democratic Governors Association (New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, chair) and shall report to the Democratic National Committee, which is authorized to fill the vacancy or vacancies.”

But there is no stated deadline for the DNC to make a selection.

When would it be too late for Pennsylvania to replace a candidate on its statewide ballots?

A review of the 2024 Pennsylvania Election Calendar reveals two key dates: August 12 and August 27.

The first date is the deadline for candidates who were nominated at the primary election to withdraw. The latter date is the deadline for the Secretary of the Commonwealth to send to each of the state’s 67 counties a list of all candidates to be voted on at the November election.

As in the rest of the country, military ballots would go out shortly after. The deadline for printing and sending mailed ballots to voters who requested them is Oct. 22.