Kane Poll: Kane Leads Murphy 42 to 33 Percent

Kathleen Kane leads the Democratic race for Attorney General 42 percent to 33 percent, according to a poll conducted for her campaign. Both she and Patrick Murphy have strongly net favorable ratings.

“Kane is polling ahead of Murphy in every media market but Philadelphia and when figures are adjusted for anticipated voter turnout, Kane’s leads the race 42% to 33%,” the pollster wrote. “When accounting for leans among undecided voters, the Kane lead is 8%.”

The at-times negative tenor of the campaign apparently hasn’t had a significant effect on voter opinions. Murphy has a 44 percent net favorable rating among Democrats; Kane’s is 40 percent net favorable – as of April 15 when the poll was taken.

As with any internal poll, take it with a grain of salt. Campaigns typically release their numbers either to boost fundraising or demonstrate viability, or both. In this case, the methodology explained below indicates that the raw survey results may have been favorable to Kane. For example, the pollster was not able to include cell phone users, who tend to be younger and more urban – where Murphy is stronger.

That said, as PoliticsPA noted in its Tuesday report on Kane’s closing ad, which highlights her support from President Bill Clinton:

Their final-week ads show where each campaign thinks it is. Murphy’s most recent spot was a broadside of attacks against Kane on a number of issues. That, plus the fact that Kane appears to be entering the final on a positive note, suggests that both campaigns see her as the frontrunner.

The pollster is Traci Copeland of Zata 3, based in Washington, DC. Here is her explanation for methodology:

We administered the survey using IVR survey technology and recorded responses on 10 questions. We conducted a randomized dial of voter households deemed likely to participate in the upcoming Democratic Primary. The sample size was 1008 respondents. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence level.

    • Home Phone Ownership. Due to the mode of administration of the survey, the sample is limited to individuals who own home phones.
    • Ethnicity. We asked each respondent to identify their ethnicity. The results have been  weighted to reflect anticipated turnout.
    • Gender. Women are slightly overrepresented in this sample.
    • Age. Voters age 55+ are overrepresented in this sample.
    • Geography. The survey sample is distributed across the media markets according to recent Democratic primary turnout patterns.

About IVR Surveys. IVR surveys reduce interviewer bias to zero by eliminating the live human interviewer. Every poll respondent hears the same questions read the same way, Independent analyses from publications such as the Wall Street Journal, National Council on Public Polls, American Association of Public Opinion Research and The Pew Research Center all show automated, recorded voice surveys used to record candidate preferences have an accuracy level comparable to live interviewer surveys. In the 2008 primary season, Nate Silver with www.fivethirtyeight.com concluded that two of the three most accurate pollsters were IVR surveys. In 2010 general election, a similar comparison of polls nationwide concluded that IVR surveys were ranked second and fourth most accurate.

April 19th, 2012 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Harrisburg, PA Offices 2012, Poll, Top Stories | 14 Comments

14 thoughts on “Kane Poll: Kane Leads Murphy 42 to 33 Percent”

  1. Senator Jim Ferlo says:

    As a partisan Democrat I find both candidates for AG to be fine public servants with impressive and varied credentials. Early in the process I sent a $250 donation to the Kane campaign because I feel she would be a stronger candidate to field in the Fall election although I have never met her personally. She has been a long time prosecutor with extensive court room exoeriences, has financial resources to run a state-wide campaign, and it’s about time the Democratic party work to advance women with competence, commitment and compassion. I believe Ms. Kane to be agreat candidate who can win a seat that has consistently been lost by previous Democrats.
    Sincerely, Senator Jim Ferlo (D), 38th District

  2. bobguzzardi says:

    I would not be surprised if unions came in for Dave Freed. Tom Corbett and many union Republicans, including Sen. Pileggi have close ties.

    I am sure the unions despise Kane is Able as a nonunion and successful company

  3. bobguzzardi says:

    excellent analysis, Dave Diano. Kathleen Kane can talk about her liberal background in primary but not necessary in general.

    Sandusky and sexual attacks on children will, probably, be most prominent. This sickens me and, I think, anyone who has kids. Sandusky was a Penn State football start and he used that to cover his abuse of children and he had help…Dave Freed is “Tom Corbett’s Man” and Dave Freed will do what is expected of him.

    the LeRoy Zimmerman mess with Hershey Trust and getting rich from a Penna icon is repulsive.

    Need I mention the despicable Mike Long and the Senate Bonusgaters who have skated? What happened there.

    Kathleen Kane is a Righteous Democrat, or a Good Government Democrat, and a lot of conservatives can live with that in AG’s office. Stephanie Singer in Philadelphia is a good example. She is exposing Voter fraud there working well with Al Schmidt, who is, also, independent of party leadership.

  4. David Diano says:

    Darby-
    It looks like Murphy is in so much trouble that he can’t even cook a poll.

    Jake-
    The people supporting Murphy can give to Kane against Freed, because they are certainly going to prefer her over Freed. Beating Murphy with a better message is going to give her plenty of street cred.

    Bob G-
    Exactly. By running her campaign the way she has, she’s not making the same mistake Sestak did by running so far to the left, that she can’t can’t capture the center. Kane’s ads are giving her more name recognition than Freed.
    Tim D-
    Corruption, sexual abuse, fraud, etc. are the kinds of cases the AG handles, not terrorism. Have you ever worked for a manager who never started out doing the jobs his employees do? They often don’t know how to hire, delegate, or oversee because they don’t understand the work they are managing. Civilian law experience trumps military law experience for the top civilian law job in the state.

    whc-
    Yes. It’s refreshing to see a candidate run a positive campaign despite a tight race. Murphy expected to waltz in and just have it handed to him. Also, with how badly he lost his congressional seat, how can we expect him to win Bucks county, let alone the state in the general?

  5. whc says:

    Murphy never would run for AG if he had not lost his Congressional seat. He is looking for a stepping stone to be Governor. Murphy went negative because he is losing and he knows it. I am ready for a woman in the AG office. Kane has run a great campaign and has stayed positive.

  6. Bob Guzzardi says:

    what worked for Kathleen Kane in primary will work for her in the general. Dave Freed does have experience in prosecuting cases but he is a professional career politician entangled with BrabenderCox Tom Corbett LeRoy Zimmerman Jerry Sandusky, Senate Bonusgaters, and so on.

  7. Tim D. says:

    Do any of you really think that the AG himself/herself tries cases? He or she will run the office and make policy determinations and decisions. If you don’t like Murphy for a valid reason, that’s fine. But, its quite another to say he lacks experience. Prosecuting terrorists in Iraq trumps DUI’s and possession charges in Lackawanna County in my book.

  8. Jake Tepper says:

    If Kane wins is her husband going to give her another 2 million dollars for the general election? If not David Freed will have smooth sailing against her.

  9. David Darby says:

    At least she has enough money to cook a poll

  10. SEPA Man says:

    It over for Murphy, totally over…

    (1) Never took the PA Bar
    (2) Never seen the inside of a PA Court Room

    That is like wanting to be in Chief of the FAA without having a pilots license, or Surgeon General without ever setting foot in a hospital…who is this guy kidding?

  11. David Diano says:

    Pelosi’s bidding? Murphy was a Blue Dog democrat, who liked to vote with conservatives.

  12. Sean Ryan says:

    Patrick Murphy knows he is going to lose and that is why he is tapping Axelrod and many other national contacts to help fundraising. Kane is simply a better candidate with a proven record as a prosecutor. Murphy is a politician who spent 4 years doing Nacy Pelosi’s bidding and that will hurt him in the General election.

    He was down when he was beat by Fitzpatrick and unfortunately he also was quiet as polls showed him down by 10 points in the closing days.

  13. Rocky says:

    All the ads in the world can’t buy you a good ground game on Election Day. Murphy has the grassroots support across the state that will help him win.

    He is absolutely the right guy for the job. PA needs a guy like Murphy in the AG’s office.

  14. David Diano says:

    Interesting that Murphy hasn’t come out with his own internal poll.

    You know he has one.

    Questions
    1) does it show him ahead?
    2) and if so, why keep it quiet?

    Likely answers:
    1) No
    2) See answer #1

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