Keystone Analytics Poll: Peduto 39, Wagner 32
City Councilman BIll Peduto’s lead has grown in the race for Pittsburgh Mayor, the latest poll from Keystone Analytics shows.
Peduto took 39% to former Auditor General Jack Wagner’s 32%. 8% go for state Rep. Jake Wheatley, 1% for activist AJ Wheatley, and 18% of voters remain undecided.
The pollster surveyed 404 likely Democratic primary voters from May 7-8. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9%, meaning the race, while wider, is still in the margin of error. Keystone Analytics is affiliated with the PA Association of Realtors.
The margin is 5 points wider for Peduto than a poll from the same firm in late April, which showed him ahead 38%-36%.
Favorability for both leading contenders has dropped in recent weeks as negative campaign ads have taken their toll. Peduto fell from 65% positive to 51%, while Wagner fell a similar distance from 64% down to 49%.
The pollster summarized district-by-district thus: “Peduto holds a 10+ point advantage in Districts 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9, while Wagner holds the same advantage in Districts 2 and 4. However, voters in Districts 1, 6, 9 are also the most undecided, with at least 25 percent of those surveyed saying they were unsure who they would vote for.”
Essentially, the city’s North Side and African American communities are the most undecided. East Enders go for Peduto (his home base), South Pittsburghers for Wagner (his home base).
Important note: the district-by-district results should be taken with a big grain of salt (likely why the pollster didn’t release actual numbers). Roughly 42-50 voters were surveyed for each district, meaning the margin of error likely is very high.
More poll details are here. This is a map of Pittsburgh Council districts.