A memo released by the Dave McCormick campaign on Monday has mixed messages for the candidate for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.

On one hand, the campaign acknowledges that the former Bridgewater Associates hedge fund CEO is trailing Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jr. by seven points.

Yet, on the flip side, the same pollsters chart a path for the 58-year-old to overcome the deficit, defeat the three-term senator, and become the key piece to the GOP winning back control of the chamber.

Public Opinion Strategies (POS) surveyed 800 likely Pennsylvania voters between Jan. 22-25 and found that Casey leads McCormick in a head-to-head matchup, 47% to 40%, with 12 percent of those responding undecided and a +/- 3.46% margin of error.

The memo attempts to establish the advantages that McCormick has over Casey as the campaign heads into March.

“In both our survey and in focus groups, voters struggle to identify a single issue or accomplishment that associate with Casey other than he is the incumbent Democratic Senator,” the authors write. “Even voters’ recall of Casey’s father as Governor is a very distant, foggy memory.”

Even though McCormick ran for the GOP nomination for Senate two years ago, nearly 70 percent of those surveyed have either never heard of or do not have an opinion of the probable Republican candidate.

POS provided the pool of voters with “a neutral description” of both candidates to gauge support.

“For whom would you vote in the election for the U.S. Senate if you learned that …

“Republican Dave McCormick is a West Point graduate and combat Army veteran who helped build a business that created hundreds of jobs in Pennsylvania. Dave has never held office and is running to shake up the Senate, secure the southern border, and bring jobs back to America from China.”

“Democrat Bob Casey is Pennsylvania’s Senior Senator and the son of a former Governor. Casey is running for reelection to stand up to greedy corporate interests on behalf of Pennsylvanians and to protect democracy.”

When numbers showed a reversal for McCormick to the tune of 52-45, it becomes apparent what his campaign will be focusing on in the coming weeks and months.

Earlier today, Americans for Prosperity Action (AFP Action) released a new set of ads supporting both McCormick and Sam Brown, another endorsed U.S. Senate candidate in Nevada.

The $1.6 million ad buy in Pennsylvania and Nevada highlights both candidates as lawmakers with a history of service and the grit to vote for meaningful border security, energy abundance, and an end to Washington’s inflationary spending.

“Pennsylvanians need a new leader in the Senate,” said AFP Action Senior Advisor for Pennsylvania Ashley Klingensmith. “Dave McCormick understands where inflation comes from: runaway government spending. He’s ready to be part of the solution by putting an end to Washington waste. Dave McCormick’s experience positions him to better advance economic opportunity for Pennsylvanians from Pitt to Philly and everywhere in between.”

“Dave McCormick’s background as a combat veteran and successful businessman offer the perfect contrast to career politician Bob Casey and his long record of making life more difficult and less safe for Pennsylvanians,” the memo says. “Add in a favorable environment for Republicans in the state, and Dave McCormick is well positioned to win in November.”