Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll: Wild 48, Nothstein 41, Silfies 5

A new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows the Democratic candidate with a 7 point lead in the race for the open seat in the newly drawn 7th Congressional district. The poll shows Democratic candidate Susan Wild leading GOP candidate Marty Nothstein 48-41, with the Libertarian candidate Tim Silfies bringing in 5% of the vote “when voters who are less certain but leaning toward a particular candidate are included.”  

The Morning Call describes the lead for Wild as a “significant, but not insurmountable edge” over Nothstein. 411 likely voters in the district were interviewed for this poll conducted Oct 14-18. The margin of error is +/- 5.5%.

 

 

The candidates share identical numbers on being viewed unfavorably, but the Democrat holds a significant favorable rating advantage.  

Wild holds a 41% favorable view, with 32% viewing her unfavorably, 15% unsure, and 12% haven’t heard of her. Nothstein holds a 29% favorable rating, with 32% viewing him unfavorably, 19% unsure, and 21% haven’t heard of him. The Morning Call reports that the Libertarian candidate’s support is evenly distributed among Democratic, Republican, and Independent voters, but most polled haven’t heard of him. 57% polled said they have never heard of Silfies, while 7% view him favorably, 9% unfavorably, and 27% are unsure. 

A majority of the newly drawn district was represented by former GOP Rep. Charlie Dent. The article cites Dent as a “rare moderate” who “remains popular among district voters.” 38% polled want the next Congressional representative to have similar political ideology to Dent, while 25% would like the next representative to be more conservative and 25% would like the next representative to be more liberal than the retired Congressman.

The newly drawn district went to Sec. Hillary Clinton by a slim margin in 2016, although those polled were split evenly 44-44 on voting for Clinton and Trump in the Presidential election.

In this poll, Trump is viewed favorably by 42% of those polled, while 54% view him unfavorably.

Out of six options of what is most important to likely voters in the district, economic issues/jobs and healthcare led by a significant margin. 20% polled said economic issues/jobs was the top issue driving congressional voters, with 19% saying healthcare as the top issue. Stopping Trump/electing Democrats and taxes were tied up a 8% each for most important issue, while 5% each selected helping Trump/Republicans and education as the top issue.

45% polled said their Congressional vote is a message that more Democrats are needed to oppose Trump, while 36% said that more Republicans are needed in Congress to support Trump’s agenda.   

The full data/story with additional statistics can be found here.

October 22nd, 2018 | Posted in Congress, Front Page Stories, Top Stories | 9 Comments

9 thoughts on “Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll: Wild 48, Nothstein 41, Silfies 5”

  1. Cold Spark ? says:

    How many big races is Cold Spark gonna blow this cycle?

    1. Isaac L. says:

      They lucked into a victory in 2010 when Toomey was able to ride the Tea Party wave to victory, and Cold Spark are gonna keep on riding that donkey ’til it collapses. There’s a sucker born every minute and plenty of credulous candidates to be milked.

  2. Nicholas Fazio says:

    Bet they’re gonna be surprised when Silfies wins this thing.

    1. Rick Santorum Jr. Jr. says:

      Who?

      1. gulagpittsburgh says:

        You mean Rick Santorum was allowed to reproduce??? OMG!!!

        1. KDav says:

          Who is he taking about? The 3rd party guy?

  3. KDav says:

    She definitely is in the driver’s seat. However, it is far from over. I have to say that the Dems always had the rep as having the better GOTV. I no longer think that is accurate. Where I live, PA 6, the R’s are all over the place. The D’s are not to be seen. Now, I expect that Chrissy will easily win. The R’s may save some downticket races with all the activity. I just shake my head. The R’s were also active around here in 16 while the D’s were silent.

    1. David Diano says:

      The D’s got complacent in 2016, both in GOTV and voters who sat it out. For the 3 elections in PA since (Primary/General 2017 and Primary 2018), Dem turnout is up and GOP turnout appears flat, when compared to similar prior off-year elections.

      In terms of PA registration, as of Oct 1st, 46% of new registrations were Dem and only 26% were Republican, with the remaining 27% Indy/3rd party.

      The bulk of the registrations are young people under 30.

      1. KDav says:

        I hear you and I do think the Democrats will have a good night in PA. However, it could be better and I would love to see more activity. Frankly, we all know that people under 30 are not reliable voters.

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