MoveOn/PPP Poll: Shutdown Hurting Rep. Gerlach
A new poll from MoveOn.org and Public Policy Polling reveals the government shutdown may be threatening the re-election chances of Rep. Jim Gerlach. According to their survey, the Congressman’s approval rating currently stands at 34% while 43% of respondents disapprove.
When asked to chose between Rep. Gerlach or a Democratic opponent, Gerlach trails the Democrat 46%-41%. When those polled are informed that the Congressman supported the shutdown, he trails a generic Democrat 48%-41%.
Only 31% and 33% of respondents respectively support a government shutdown or refusing to lift the debt ceiling in order to prevent the implementation of Obamacare.
The survey polled 821 registered voters from Pennsylvania’s 6th district.
Additionally, 56% of those polled have an unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party while only 34% have a favorable opinion. When asked if they would be more or less likely to support Rep. Gerlach because of the shutdown, 56% of respondents said they would be less likely compared to just 30% would said they would be more likely to support him.
This poll comes just a few days after surveys from the same organizations showed that other southeast PA Republicans Pat Meehan (R-Delaware) and Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks) were on worse ground thanks to the shutdown.
As with any poll commissioned by an interest group, the results should be taken with a grain of salt. PPP is a Democratic polling firm. Although it has received criticism about its methods, its 2012 results were highly accurate.
The performance of a “generic” Democrat doesn’t necessarily correspond with the election outcomes in any given race. The party will have to nominate an actual candidate with advantages and flaws that will affect the voter’s ultimate choice.
In Gerlach’s case, this week PoliticsPA took a deep look at the past decade of election results in his district. The results show why no Democrat has yet announced interest in a bid in PA-6.