Muhlenberg Poll: Harris, Trump Deadlocked; Casey, McCormick Within Margin

The latest poll from Muhlenberg College shows what we’ve all known for quite some time – the presidential race in Pennsylvania will be tight.

How tight?

Muhlenberg surveyed 450 likely voters and found a 48-48% tie between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Four percent of respondents selected “neither/other” while an additional 1% chose “not sure.”

In the race for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate Class I seat – those whose term runs from Jan. 3, 2019 through Jan. 3, 2025 – Sen. Bob Casey Jr. received 48 percent support from those surveyed, while Republican opponent Dave McCormick came in with 43%. Five percent selected “neither/other” while 4% indicated they were “not sure.” Casey’s five-point advantage does fall within the poll’s +/-6% margin of error.

Presidential Crosstabs

  • Male: Trump +23 (59-36)
  • Female: Harris +21 (59-38)
  • White: Trump +12 (54-42)
  • Person of Color: Harris +39 (66-27)
  • Non-College Degree: Trump +21 (58-37)
  • Age 18-29: Harris +26 (61-35)
  • “Definitely Voting”: Harris +1 (49-48)
  • “Very Likely to Vote”: Trump +17 (50-33)

 

U.S. Senate Crosstabs

  • Male: McCormick +15 (53-38)
  • Female: Casey +23 (57-34)
  • White: McCormick +3 (47-44)
  • Person of Color: Casey +31 (59-28)
  • Non-College Degree: McCormick +15 (52-37)
  • Age 18-29: Casey +24 (59-35)
  • “Definitely Voting”: Casey +5 (48-43)
  • “Very Likely to Vote”: McCormick +7 (45-38)

 

Favorability

  • Harris, minus-3 (47-50%)
  • Trump, minus-7 (45-52%)
  • Casey, minus-5 (33-38%)
  • McCormick, minus-10 (28-38%)

 

Trump’s favorability rating has steadily risen from December from minus-23 (33-56) to minus-7 (45-52). Casey’s favorability has fallen since April from a plus-6 (39-33) to minus-5 (33-38), while McCormick’s has also taken a nosedive from plus-2 (28-26) to minus-10 (28-38).

Job Performance

  • Biden – 36% approve, 58% disapprove
  • Shapiro – 59% approve, 27% disapprove

 

Biden’s approval numbers continue to increase little by little in each survey, rising from 34% in December to 35% in April to 36% in September. Shapiro, the figurative runner-up in the Democratic veep stakes, saw his approval figure slip from 64% to 59% over the last five months. The 59% is still eight percent higher than December.

Generic Congressional Ballot

When queried whether respondents would vote for a Democrat or Republican for Congress in their district, the survey revealed a deadlock at 45-45% with seven percent stating they were not sure.

Most Important Issue

More than 1-in-3 respondents selected the “economy/inflation” as the most important issue in terms of deciding their vote. “Abortion/Reproductive Rights” was second (13%), while “Immigration” was the only other issue (11%) that cracked the 10 percent plateau.

Seventy percent said that it is very or extremely important for the United States to take an active role in world affairs, while an additional 19% indicated it was somewhat important.

Election Integrity

The survey asked respondents how confident that votes cast in the methods listed below will be accurately cast and counted in November.

  • Paper Ballots – 72% confident, 23% not confident
  • Electronic Voting Systems – 68% confident, 27% not confident
  • Mail Ballots – 54% confident, 43% not confident

 

Nearly one-third of respondents said that “voter fraud” is the biggest threat to Pennsylvania having a safe, secure and accurate election, while nearly one-fourth said the “suppression of individuals from voting.” One-in-seven said foreign interference in the election, while another 13% said the use of mail ballots.

The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of (450) likely voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between September 16 and 19, 2024. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (111) and cell phones (339). With a randomly selected sample of respondents the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 6% at a 95% level of confidence.





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  • Will tonight's U.S. Senate debate affect your decision?


    • No. I've already decided on how to cast my vote. (81%)
    • Yes. Anxious to hear from both candidates (19%)

    Total Voters: 27

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