Final vulnerability rankings are made before Election Day, while the Wagner campaign blasts Mango as unaired primary attack ads are leaked. Here is the Playbook.
November 2nd Ups & Downs: A new F&M poll shows both Casey and Wolf leading by significant margins, an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court over PA’s Congressional map was rejected, and a Democratic state House candidate backpedals after calling her constituents racist. All of that and more are in this week’s Ups and Downs.
Pennsylvania Congressional Vulnerability Rankings, November Update: The last rankings before Election Day.
Wagner Campaign Blasts Mango as Unaired Primary Attack Ad Leaks: Wagner’s Campaign Manager accused Mango and his supporters of lying “viciousiously” and working against their general election campaign.
PA16: DiNicola Touts Trump Supporters Endorsements, Kelly Stays on the Attack: The Democrat makes a push to appeal to Trump voters in this ad.
PA8: ABC27/SP&R Poll: Rep. Cartwright 57 Chrin 40: 55% polled disapprove of the job performance of President Trump in a district he won by close to 10 points.
New Yorker Profile on Ryan Costello: The article titled, “The Demise of the Moderate Republican” details Rep. Ryan Costello as a “centrist wonk” who “ran for Congress to solve problems- but his colleagues fell in line with Trump’s parade of resentment.”
Cook Moves PA10 From Leans Republican To Toss Up: The election analyst moved 10 House rating changes, which included moving the race between Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) and Democrat George Scott as a Toss-Up.
Legislative Election Update:
HD-30: The HRCC released an attack ad stating Democratic candidate Betsy Monroe on proposed tax increases.
Don’t see news from your campaign, or an article from a local news outlet in our legislative elections list? Add press@politicspa.com to your list and send us your updates!
Harrisburg & DC
AP: Fights for US House seats in Pennsylvania closely watched
AP: Pennsylvania election: Democrats look for US House gains
AP: Where Pennsylvania’s candidates for governor stand on issues
AP: For some, a vibrant US economy complicates voting decision
AP: Democrat, a Mennonite, turns heads in heavily GOP House seat
AP: School district decision to arm teachers brings backlash
AP: NJ, PA casinos crossing borders into each other’s markets
Philadelphia Business Journal: Wagner vs. Wolf: Top southeastern Pennsylvania contributors
Pittsburgh Business Times: Where Wolf and Wagner stand on business issues
StateImpactPA: Listen: How housing in the Bakken shale play evolved with the oil boom
PLSReporter: Ahead of election day referendum in Allegheny County, childhood education advocates rally support
PLSReporter: 3 under 3!
PLSReporter: Turzai faces Skopov, Williams battles Shaffer at candidate forum
PhillyVoice: Uber wants to resume testing self-driving cars in Pennsylvania
KYW Newsradio: Jewish advocates push for more security funding for non-public schools after Pittsburgh shooting
KYW Newsradio: Flashpoint: The battle against hate after synagogue massacre, mid-term election polls and galvanizing Pa. women
Billy Penn: Can you vote in PA on probation or parole? An answer for Meek Mill
WHYY Newsworks: Running hard, Barletta sticks with Trump
Inquirer: Pa. unions using new tactics to influence the midterm elections
Inquirer: What candidates in Pa.’s closest congressional race are telling voters days before the election
Inquirer: Anxious, angry, divided, voters go to the polls for a midterm of rare intensity
Inquirer: Is this the year young people make history by actually voting? They will if just 1 in 4 cast ballots.
Inquirer: American bishops face new judgment over sexual abuse after decades of failed reforms, cover-ups
Bucks County Courier Times: Regulating the unregulated: New PA laws look to enact change in recovery houses
KDKA: Wolf Or Wagner? A Look At Where Pennsylvania’s Candidates For Governor Stand
KDKA: Some Pa. Democrats Concerned About Democratic Socialist Nominations
KDKA: Pa. Candidates Making Final Push Before Election Day
KDKA: How The Economy Is Playing In Five Close House Races
KDKA: Gab Gets New Domain Host, Expects To Be Back Online Sunday Following Synagogue Shooting
Beaver County Times: Casey, Barletta tangle for U.S. Senate seat; Wolf, Wagner vie for governor
The Times Leader: Wolf seeks second term as Pennsylvania’s governor against Wagner
The Times Leader: US Senate showdown: Casey looking to hold off Barletta in high-stakes race
Philadelphia
Philadelphia Business Journal: Wagner vs. Wolf: Top southeastern Pennsylvania contributors
PhillyVoice: Philadelphia will have an 80-person task force battling fraud on Election Day
PhillyVoice: This West Philly restaurant’s ‘get out the vote’ PSA is my favorite thing about the midterms
AP: Philadelphia proposes big solar farm as part of energy plan
KYW Newsradio: Philly school district chipping away at time-off payout for former employees
KYW Newsradio: Need help getting to the polls? Uber, Lyft offer free rides
KYW Newsradio: Jewish advocates push for more security funding for non-public schools after Pittsburgh shooting
KYW Newsradio: Flashpoint: The battle against hate after synagogue massacre, mid-term election polls and galvanizing Pa. women
KYW Newsradio: Some Philly voters eager to hit the polls Tuesday
PlanPhilly: Bill to ban new 3-story homes in Point Breeze, Grays Ferry introduced by Councilman Johnson
Vox: Why walkable cities are good for the economy, according to a city planner
Billy Penn: Can you vote in PA on probation or parole? An answer for Meek Mill
WHYY Newsworks: Vote That Jawn: Promoting youth civic engagement from top to bottom
Philadelphia Magazine: ThinkFest Preview: The View From the Front Lines of Philadelphia’s Opioid Crisis
Inquirer: Pa. unions using new tactics to influence the midterm elections
Inquirer: What candidates in Pa.’s closest congressional race are telling voters days before the election
Inquirer: Amid reported Amazon HQ2 talks for Northern Va. site, Philly not counting itself out of the running
Inquirer: Why Philly has more than 800 polling places and why some are just, well, strange
SEPA
Bucks Local News: ELECTION 2018: Brian Fitzpatrick, Scott Wallace face off for U.S. House seat in Pennsylvania’s 1st District
Pottstown Mercury: Will Chester County voters hop on the ‘Blue’ wave, or go ‘Red?’
Pottstown Mercury: Special election set in old 7th Congressional District
Pottstown Mercury: The Top 10 Democratic and Republican municipalities in Chester County
Pottstown Mercury: Midterm Madness: Both sides push on to the bitter end
Bucks County Courier Times: Hundreds attend anti-hate meeting at Lower Makefield synagogue
Bucks County Courier Times: Some Horsham voters will get to vote for two U.S. reps
Bucks County Courier Times: Regulating the unregulated: New PA laws look to enact change in recovery houses
Daily Local News: This election, students are just yearning to vote
Daily Local News: Majority of WCU students indicate they will vote Tuesday
Daily Local News: Attorney General warns voters of election scams
Daily Local News: This election, students are just yearning to vote
Pittsburgh
Post-Gazette: Feds seek to seal discovery material in Pittsburgh synagogue mass shooting case
Post-Gazette: Monroe, Mizgorski hold similar views in 30th District race
Post-Gazette: ELECTION 2018: A sit-down with two of Pa.’s Congressmen – Conor Lamb and Keith Rothfus
Post-Gazette: Even tragedy days before election may not change minds
Post-Gazette: About the Jewish mourners’ prayer on the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette front page
Post-Gazette: VOTERS GUIDE: Where’s my precinct? What district am I in? What voters need to know for Election Day
Post-Gazette: New Pittsburgh EMS chief, a 40-year department veteran, is sworn in
Post-Gazette: Uber applies to restart self-driving tests in Pittsburgh, months after fatal Ariz. accident
Post-Gazette: Natural gas processor to pay nearly $7M to settle pollution violations
City Paper: Hundreds rally in Downtown Pittsburgh calling for transgender rights and protections
KDKA: Close Race Between Rep. Mike Kelly, Democrat Ron DiNicola Getting Attention
KDKA: Some Pa. Democrats Concerned About Democratic Socialist Nominations
KDKA: Pa. Candidates Making Final Push Before Election Day
KDKA: Voters Encouraged To Check Polling Place Locations Before Tuesday
KDKA: Gab Gets New Domain Host, Expects To Be Back Online Sunday Following Synagogue Shooting
KDKA: DA Zappala Proposes Summit On Security Following Pittsburgh Synagogue Shooting
Pittsburgh Business Times: See which communities are contributing the most to Wolf, Wagner campaigns
Tribune Review: ‘Research Document’ points finger at voting record
Tribune Review: Voter turnout expected to be high Tuesday as Democrats, Republicans are energized
Tribune Review: Teachers take matters into their own hands by running for office
SWPA
Beaver County Times: Hotly contested races for Legislature, Congress give midterm election a jolt
Beaver County Times: 46th Senatorial District: Petition saga, other accusations overshadow state Senate race
Beaver County Times: 16th Congressional District: Kelly, DiNicola point out their differences
Beaver County Times: Redistricting puts Rothfus, Lamb in rare all-incumbent race
Beaver County Times: 10th Legislative District: Voters have choice between Bernstine, Slappy
Beaver County Times: 14th Legislative District: Marshall has opponent in Fazio
Beaver County Times: 44th Legislative District: Gaydos, Knoll battling to replace Mustio in state House
Beaver County Times: 15th Legislative District: Two political newcomers vying for open seat
Beaver County Times: 45th Legislative District: Kulik runs unopposed
Beaver County Times</b : 16th Legislative District: Matzie runs unopposed
Beaver County Times: Beaver County Town Hall Meeting showcases successes, treatment for area’s opioid crisis
Beaver County Times: Beaver County overdose deaths could drop by half in 2018
Observer-Reporter: Squirrel Hill massacre, mailing of pipe bombs occurred just before midterm elections
Altoona Mirror: Election features contested races
Altoona Mirror: Blair budget, salaries criticized
Johnstown Tribune-Democrat: Election 2018 | Changes expected across Pennsylvania House delegation
Johnstown Tribune-Democrat: 13th District at a glance
Johnstown Tribune-Democrat: 15th District at a glance
Johnstown Tribune-Democrat: Election 2018 | Pennsylvania House races – the candidates
Johnstown Tribune-Democrat: State House elections: Fourth Barbin-Rigby matchup set for Tuesday
NEPA
Citizens Voice: Democrats split on Biden for president
Citizens Voice: Biden rallies local Democrats ahead of general election
Times-Tribune: Biden at rally: ‘The character of our country is on the ballot’
Times-Tribune: Scranton council wants to pass on pocket park
The Times Leader: Mullery, Behrens vie for 119th Legislative seat
The Times Leader: Luzerne County capital projects in the works
The Times Leader: Wolf seeks second term as Pennsylvania’s governor against Wagner
The Times Leader: Capitol Roundup: Pennsylvanians urged to visit votesPA.com for all voting information
The Times Leader: Chrin looking to unseat Cartwright in 8th Congressional District
The Times Leader: Pa. Auditor General to monitor Tuesday’s election
The Times Leader: Wolff, Meuser seek to represent newly realigned 9th District
The Times Leader: US Senate showdown: Casey looking to hold off Barletta in high-stakes race
The Times Leader: Chrin shows Pa. driver’s license in response to Cartwright claims on residency
South Central
York Dispatch: 47th District House Race profile: Gillespie vs. Wascovich
York Dispatch: 28th District Senate race profile: Higgins vs. Phillips-Hill
York Dispatch: 2018 midterm elections: York County voters’ guide
Carlisle Sentinel: Pennsylvania counties still in the dark on options for new voting machines
Carlisle Sentinel: Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District race tests region’s partisan divide
Carlisle Sentinel: In Cumberland County, midterm absentee ballots swell
Carlisle Sentinel: Election Preview 2018: 10th Congressional District
Carlisle Sentinel: Election Preview 2018: 87th Legislative District
Carlisle Sentinel: Election Preview 2018: 30th Senatorial District
York Daily Record: Don’t drive? Here’s how to get to the polls
York Daily Record: Meet Hanover’s new mayor: Myneca Ojo
Harrisburg Patriot News: Trump tweets his endorsement for Pa.’s Scott Perry for Congress
Harrisburg Patriot News: Here’s what you need to know to vote in Tuesday’s election
Harrisburg Patriot News: Election battles abound for seats in the Pa. House
Harrisburg Patriot News: Scott Perry questions George Scott’s judgment, honesty over 1989 gun photo
Harrisburg Patriot News: Are the midterm elections important? We asked potential voters
Harrisburg Patriot News: Parachutes, pulpits and politics: George Scott’s journey to the 10th Congressional District race
Harrisburg Patriot News: Sheetz or Wawa?: Convenience store chains split in their support of Pa. governor candidates
LancasterOnline | LNP: Lancaster County commissioner: ‘It’s very likely we’re going to have a no-tax-increase budget’
LancasterOnline | LNP: Here’s your 2018 Voters’ Guide for Lancaster County and Pennsylvania races
Lehigh Valley
WFMZ: Berks County Republicans, Democrats prep for election
WFMZ: Reading Charter Board: Council has power to investigate mayor’s office
Morning Call: Early returns indicate Lehigh Valley voters wil not be absent Election Day
Morning Call: Proposed Allentown budget calls for property tax hike
Morning Call: Tamaqua Area School District policy to arm teachers fires up community
Morning Call: Recapping the Lehigh Valley’s race to replace former U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent
Reading Eagle: Oley Township residents to vote on library tax
Reading Eagle: State Senate candidates spending big on races
Reading Eagle: State House candidates differ on financial support
North by Northwest
KDKA: Close Race Between Rep. Mike Kelly, Democrat Ron DiNicola Getting Attention
Erie Times-News: Human Relations Commission chair resigns followig director’s controversial hiring
Erie Times-News: Fired Milcreek official sues over free speech claim
Erie Times-News: Viaduct demolition set to start? Maybe not
Williamsport Sun-Gazette: City police union files labor complaints
Williamsport Sun-Gazette: Friedenberg hopeful to capture US House seat
Williamsport Sun-Gazette: Transportation officials seek public opinions
Williamsport Sun-Gazette: First reading of Lycoming County budget shows deficit for 2019
Centre Daily Times: Democrat, a Mennonite, turns heads in heavily GOP House seat
Centre Daily Times: As costs soar, state special education funding share falls
Centre Daily Times: Bridgeport elected black mayor, then the town divided
Opinion
Post-Gazette Editorial Board: A need for restraint: Tree of Life tragedy shows necessity for self-policing
Post-Gazette Editorial Board: Strike Two: The city, county keep losing on Amazon secrecy
Post-Gazette Editorial Board: What led to brawl?: Zappala is right to criticize police obfuscation
Post-Gazette Editorial Board: Prices for goodies going up: It’s a good time for a diet
David M. Shribman: Twin pillars of a free
society
Ruth Ann Dailey: Rabbi, רַב, teacher
Will Bunch: That little girl who starved to death, and 4 other things we didn’t talk about in 2018 midterms
V Varun Chaudhry: When it comes to gender identity, inclusion is more than using the right pronoun
Inquirer Perspective: Anti-Semitism in America: How the Pittsburgh shootings shaped the views of 6 young Jews
Trudy Rubin: Trump has made it kosher for anti-Semitism to reenter the American mainstream
Abraham Gutman: How a traumatized America finds relief in hate
Helen Ubiñas: Anger is a sign of hope, a Penn rabbi says
Maria Panaritis: ‘Dad, I’m Scared’: Words from the Upper Darby High lockdown I never want to hear as a mom
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6 Responses
Wagner loses by more than Barletta, definitely double digits for Wagner. I agree Fitzgerald wins but I wouldn’t be surprised either way with Perry/Scott. As for the US Senate, the Dems win Nevada in somewhat of an upset but Missouri and North Dakota are problems for D’s. Montana could be an upset for the Republicans.
Yea, I think the last second, scorched earth campaign helped Fitz. It may hurt him in the next election though. As for Perry and Kelly, I still think they hold on. While enthusiasm is clearly on the D side as a whole, I think the R’s are engaged enough to prevent a wave like the one in 10. Still, +3 net in the House is what is needed for the D’s to capture the House. Hard to see it as less than that. I see a +1, maybe 2 night for the R’s in the Senate. Nothing so far indicates to me that will change. ND is definitely going red. MO, IN and MT are close. I think Nelson prevails in the Senate. Scott lost the race when he asked Nelson what he did in the Senate about the Red Algae. The response was short and brutal. ‘I didn’t cut $30m from water management like you did. At that point, the race slowly shifted to Nelson.
R’s probably get one of those and maybe 2. D’s get one of NV or AZ. Hard to see Beto winning. If he does, then an even split is possible I guess. Still, I just don’t see it. He did not lead in 1 poll. Even a partisan poll had him tied. Sticking with my +29D for the House.
I think Trump has proven that it is always better for a POTUS to be engaged in a mid term. The Dems put Obama on the sideline in 10 with approvals that were near what Trump has right now. That was a huge mistake. The base was totally unmotivated and stayed home. While tonight will be a good night for the D’s, Trump getting out there riled up his base. Even if what he says is utter nonsense (I love Obamcare, Dems will destroy Obamacare, I will destroy Obamacare – he said all of that in 30 seconds last night), it doesn’t matter. I hope the D’s take this lessen for the future. Again, I still think the D’s win the House but if Trump had just stayed in the White House, the D’s would have made larger gains. IMO.
The broadside of the Scott Wagner campaign against Mango is distressing because Team Wagner, as usual, accepts “ZERO” responsibility for running the worst campaign for Governor that a Republican has ever run in the history of Pennsylvania. There was literally no discipline with the Wagner campaign as Scott Wagner spent the entire campaign committing one gaffe after another and the the themes of the Wagner campaign shifted with the winds. There was the “soften Wagner’s image” theme then there was “cut through regulations theme” and then there was even the “caravan is coming to PA” theme. This was a campaign in constant search of meaning. Now at this late date we have Scott Wagner on the cusp of losing by 26 points–maybe 30 points and suddenly it is Paul Mango’s fault? Say what? The Wagner campaign is about to go down to a landslide defeat and the blame does not belong with Mango. The Republican Pa Congressional candidates, if they suffer epic losses, can blame the weakness at the top of the ticket with Scott Wagner and Lou Barletta as a major reason for their defeat.
Raining hard here. Hate to say this but that probably means that Wagner only losses by 16-18.
This is a unique mid-term in many ways. PA will probably NOT be representative of the nation as a whole. Wagner and Barletta are clearly hurting other candidates now. I still believe +3D for the U.S. House is very likely but now the case is out there that +6 is actually possible. This is even with Fitz saving his seat which I think will happen because there is enough Trumplandia in his CD there to bail him out. I also think Perry and Kelly will survive. However, there seems to be a greater chance of D’s +6 then D+2. That is how much I believe that the D+3 case is very strong. Drilling down, the R’s could be in for a very long night with the state legislature. The ads I have been reading and the calls I have been receiving are the most scorched earth I have ever witnessed for state house and state senate races.
I live in an affluent CD so this will be an easy flip for the D’s, at least for US House. Therein lies the issue for the GOP. My CD (6) has the basic characteristics of about 30 other CD’s in the country currently represented by GOP congress people. Those are the ones that will be very tough to save. There is no “wave” imo because the scare tactics will work and save many candidates that are in a mix of affluent and Trumplandia.
The economy is good and that helps the GOP. While they inherited the strong economy (sorry but the numbers do show that), it doesn’t matter. For now, many seats that could have been in play will stay red BUT there will be numerous close races and the D’s will see that there is a lot of meat left on the bone. Should the economy turn in the next 1.5 years, then the D’s could expand on tomorrows gains.
It is clear to me in the Senate that the R’s will not only retain the majority but they will add a seat or 2 and even 3 is not impossible. Beto will come close but I think he is a cycle or 2 early for Texas. The fact that the race is close is an indicator that Cruz is despised. A reprehensible human being. The D’s lose ND and at least 1 or 2 other races. They will probably gain one of NV or AZ. If not, then the R+3 comes into play. TN looked like it could be in play but turned out to be fools gold for the D’s.
All of this though could be rendered moot if there is a systemic polling error. That could work both ways. I just don’t see it working in the R’s favor this time should that happen. So the base case seems to be that the D’s gain 30+ seats in the House and lose a couple in the Senate. I think there is a high probability that would occur. However, IMO – there is a greater chance that the polling error favors the D’s and they could see 50+ and a tie in the Senate or even +1 (which would really be an upset). One final opinion – the Democrats need to work on a vision and message that is in addition to Trump. So far, for me, they are lacking.
About 38 hours from now, we will know for certain. I always reserve the right to be wrong!
The only predictions I feel 100% comfortable about are that Barletta and Wagner will lose by double digits. Be willing to wager quite a bit on that.