The latest survey from the New York Times and Siena College has good news for a pair of Democratic candidates.
Vice President Kamala Harris reached the 50 percent threshold in a survey of 693 registered voters in the Commonwealth from Aug. 6-9, while former President Donald Trump came in at 46 percent. It should be noted that the 4.0 percentage-point difference is within the +/-4.0 margin of error.
Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. also topped the 50% mark, polling at 51% compared to GOP challenger Dave McCormick who received 37 percent support.
President
More than 9 in 10 (92%) of those queried said that it was almost certain or very likely that they would vote in the November election. Two percent indicated that they were not at all likely to vote.
In the July survey from NYT/Siena, Trump had a 48-46% advantage over Harris – a difference that has swung by six points in favor of the Democrat. When other candidates are included as part of the questioning, Harris’ edge was cut in half to 45-43% with independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulling in five percent.
Harris has a plus-2 favorability rating (50-48) – a rise of 17 points since the last survey – while Trump is minus-4 (48-52) – an improvement of five points over the last month.
Forty-four percent of those queried said that Harris was “too liberal or progressive” while a nearly equal number (43%) said she was not too liberal nor progressive.
On the flip side, a growing number think that Trump is growing “too conservative,” as the percentage rose from 32% last fall to 38% in this survey.
Back in May, just 58 percent of those surveyed were satisfied with their choice of candidates in this fall’s presidential election. That number rose to 77% among respondents to the latest questioning.
More than 1-in-3 (35%) said that if Trump won the election, he would tear down the system completely – a rise of 10 percent since the spring poll. Forty-two percent say that whatever changes he would make would be “very bad for the country,” up eight percent. One-third of respondents disagreed, saying that the changes would be “very good for the country.”
When asked if the phrase “is intelligent” is an apt description for the candidate, nearly two-thirds (68%) agreed it describes Harris versus 58% for Trump. Fifty-seven percent believe that Harris has the right temperament for the position, while only 45% believe the same for Trump.
Vice President
Newly-selected Democratic running mate Tim Walz starts with a plus-9 rating (37-28), while his GOP counterpart JD Vance is minus-13 (36-49).
Two-in-9 surveyed (22%) said they were “enthusiastic” about the selection of Walz by Harris to be her running mate. An additional 27% pointed to “satisfied, but not enthusiastic,” while 11 percent were “angry” about the pick.
Less than 1 in 5 respondents (19%) indicated they were “enthusiastic” about the choice of Vance on the Republican ticket, while 25 percent said they were “satisfied, but not enthusiastic.” And 23% responded they were “angry” about the pick of Vance.
Senate
Among likely voters, Casey exceeded the 50 percent mark in the race for Pennsylvania U.S. Senate seat, receiving 51 percent support. It is the fifth time in the last seven surveys compiled by PoliticsPA that the Democrat has reached 50 percent or more.
McCormick’s 37 percent is the lowest that the Republican has polled since late June when he was at 36 percent in a Commonwealth Foundation survey.
The Big Issue
When asked to select just one issue, Pennsylvanians responded that the economy, including jobs and the stock market, was the most important (21%) in deciding how to vote in November. Immigration (16%) and abortion (14%) ran second and third, respectively. Respondents were split equally (48%) as to which candidate was better equipped to handle the issue deemed most important.
Who Would Do a Better Job
- Economy: Trump 52-46% (+6)
- Abortion: Harris 59-35% (+24)
- Immigration: Trump 51-46% (+5)
- Democracy: Harris 54-42% (+12)
Miscellaneous
- What single news source do you turn to most often?
- Fox News 17%, Network TV 16%, Social Media 16%
- How often, if ever, do you use social media, such as Facebook, Instagram, TikTok or others?
- Often 49%, Sometimes 20%, Never 17%
- How often (if a social media user), if ever, do you use TikTok?
- Never 48%, Often 15%
One Response
Imagine if the Democrats pull off a flawless convention and Harris hits her acceptance speech out of the park. The comparison to Trumps 95 minute Milwaukee death March speech will be will give Harris / Walz a huge bump heading into September.