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Cake and candles for Rep. Dawn Keefer, Kristen Gentile of Sen. Bob Casey’s office, as well as yours truly.
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Top Story
1. John Fetterman’s Lead Is Tightening And So Are Democrats’ Chances In The Senate
“Pennsylvania was supposed to be the Democrats’ insurance policy. The state’s Senate seat is currently held by a Republican, but Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman has comfortably led the race since August. If Democrats win Pennsylvania, their chance of winning the Senate would be 81 in 100.”
But according to three recent polls, Fetterman’s lead is narrowing. From June to September, the former mayor of Braddock has seen his advantage over Mehmet Oz slip from 9 to 6 in the Suffolk poll, 11 to 4 according to Fox News, and from 5 to 2 in an Emerson College survey.
That puts Fetterman’s lead in the PoliticsPA average of all polls at +7.6 and just +4.1 in the five most recent polls. (FiveThirtyEight)
Related
Democrats Aren’t Laughing at Dr. Oz Anymore As Race Tightens. “Why has the laugh track following Oz on the campaign trail faded? For one thing, his campaign has succeeded in focusing persuadable voters on Fetterman’s problems rather than his own. ” (New York Magazine)
Oz and Fetterman Have Big Debate Oct. 25. How Many People Will Have Voted by Then? “Mehmet Oz and John Fetterman’s only Senate debate comes well after mail voting starts in Pennsylvania. Here’s why that might not matter.” (Philadelphia Inquirer)
How Much Work Has John Fetterman Done as Lt. Governor? Calendar Shows Gaps. “In his campaign for a crucial U.S. Senate seat, Democrat John Fetterman takes credit for reinventing Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor’s office, transforming it from a political pit stop into a “bully pulpit” from which he’s advanced progressive causes.” (AP)
Love Him or Not, Fetterman Has Left His Mark On His Adopted Hometown of Braddock. “John Fetterman’s history with the borough of Braddock, like any relationship, can be complicated, but borough resident Delia Lennon-Winstead has no doubts about him.” (PennLive)
By The Numbers
2. Polling The Pollsters
“Public polls. Internal polls. Even prank polls. With Pennsylavania set to elect a new governor and U.S. senator this November, there’s so much polling data floating around the political universe and it can be hard to make sense of it all.
In an effort to pull back the curtain on the mechanisms behind political polling, City & State talked with three Pennsylvania-based pollsters to get their input on how to make sense of the barrage of political polls that have flooded the commonwealth this year.” (City & State)
Related
Monmouth Poll: Fetterman 48, Oz 43. “Another poll, another survey showing Democratic candidate John Fetterman on top in the chase for the U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania.” (PoliticsPA)
A New Telemundo Poll Shows Pennsylvania Hispanics Are Likely To Vote Democrat. “In late September, Telemundo 62 concluded a survey of Pennsylvania’s registered Hispanic voting bloc, and found the majority favors Democratic candidates on the ballot” (Al Dia)
Campaigns
3. In State House Races, Democrats Emphasize Support For Abortion Rights
Although every election really comes down to pocketbook issues, another question continually pops up on the campaign trail?
Where do you stand on abortion rights?
“When I’m canvassing, I’m hearing more direct questions about this issue, that is specifically saying, you know, ‘What is your stance?’” said Arvind Venkat. (WESA)
Related
The Ad Wars. “What we learned watching more than 300 campaign ads released in the second half of September.” (Sabato’s Crystal Ball)
PA House Preview: Delaware County. “We conclude our series on the candidates for the Pennsylvania State House with a look at Delaware County.” (PoliticsPA)
- Moton, Kazeem Offer Plans For 159th District During Online Forum. (Delco Times)
- Voters’ Guide to York-Area Races. (York Daily Record)
- Voters’ Guide to Lebanon-Area Races. (Lebanon Daily News)
Across The Commonwealth
In a Bellwether PA Seat, Democrat Susan Wild Touts Record as She Pursues Third Term. “Democrat incumbent Susan Wild is seeking her third term as the representative in the 7th Congressional District.” (Pennsylvania Capital-Star)
- Wild, Scheller Participating In Two Debates. (Armchair Lehigh Valley)
RGGI: PA Leadership Tale of Opposition, Support and Ambivalence. “As Doug Mastriano and Josh Shapiro jostle each other to become Pennsylvania’s next governor, their energy policies diverge markedly — and significantly from current Gov. Tom Wolf.” (The Center Square)
Hammering Democrats on Crime, PA Republicans Target a Liberal Prosecutor. “The drive against Larry Krasner has already divided Democrats on the politically charged issues of policing and public safety, cleaving at the diverse coalition of voters Democrats need to turn out in this critical swing state.” (NBC News)
As Session Nears End, PA Counties Urge Legislature to Act on Mental Health Funding. “The lobbying group that represents county commissioners in all 67 of Pennsylvania’s counties is calling on lawmakers to swiftly approve a one-time, $100 million allocation of federal money to shore up the state’s “crumbling” mental health system.” (Pennsylvania Capital-Star)
She Worked Behind the Scenes in City Hall for 33 Years. Now Sharon Vaughn Is Poised to Be Philly’s Next Council Member. “Sharon Vaughn had started plotting her retirement, until an opening came around for the one City Council job she’s never held.” (Philadelphia Inquirer)
Harrisburg Senators Go Viral For Response to Being Mistaken For Lawmakers. “You may have heard the popular phrase, “Ma’am, this is a Wendy’s” to deflect an unrelated rant.” (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)
Delco Dollars: The County Is On a Budget-Busting Run, Likely To Result In Major Tax Increases or Service Cuts In Upcoming Years. “Delaware County’s budget is under extraordinary upward pressure, an analysis conducted by Broad + Liberty shows.” (Broad + Liberty)
Opinion
- Oz vs. Fetterman: So Far Not What It Was Cracked Up To Be. (John Baer)
- Let’s Hope The Price Tag For Democracy Hasn’t Gone Up. (Thomas Jones)
- Vote For Democrats to Preserve Democracy. (Charlotte Valyo)
- Why Voters Should Vote For Republicans (Tom McGarrigle)
- Sloppy Voters Will Benefit From Latest Ruling About Mail Voting in PA (Paul Muschick)
- MAGA Politics Seems To Be Losing Some of Its Shine. (George Ochenski)
2 Responses
Nothing on the Fetterman/Oz fundraising thrashing?
Fetterman has outperformed expectations and hung in there with a lead over a polished and obviously clever media star like Oz. How many politicians on any side could go toe to toe and lead in a race with a television star who owns 10 homes? Most Pennsylvanians can afford one home if they are lucky. Oz is vulnerable on the quick cure and wealth angle.