PA-6: Sabato Declares Open Seat “Leans Republican”

sepa congressional mapFollowing the withdrawal of Democrat Mike Parrish from the race for PA-6, political analyst Larry Sabato moved the rating of the seat from Toss Up to Leans Republican.

A future Democratic House majority would almost assuredly involve Democrats cracking the Republicans’ Keystone State gerrymander, particularly in some Southeastern districts that lie in orbit of Philadelphia. The state’s Sixth, Seventh and Eighth congressional districts are all part of Greater Philadelphia, they all gave President Obama 53% of the vote in 2008 before all narrowly switching to Mitt Romney in 2012, and they are all represented by Republicans in the House. The retirement of one of these members, Rep. Jim Gerlach (R, PA-6), gave Democrats hopes that they could peel off one of these districts. However, candidate recruitment hasn’t gone the way they hoped: National Democrats were hoping that businessman Mike Parrish would be their candidate, but he dropped out last month, leaving physician Manan Trivedi as the likely nominee.Gerlach scored 57% of the vote against Trivedi in both 2010 and 2012, by far the two strongest of his six victories in this swingy seat, which was made more Republican in post-2010 redistricting. Moreover, Republicans feel good about their candidate, Chester County Commissioner Ryan Costello (R). This seat now LEANS REPUBLICAN.

Like Sabato, the NRCC sees Parrish’s withdraw as a good sign for the GOP to hold onto this seat following Gerlach’s retirement.

“It’s pretty clear after last week’s special election in Florida that Democrats’ chances in 2014 are sinking faster than a boat without a hull. It seems like just yesterday that the DCCC was sending out memos touting Mike Parrish’s candidacy and flying Nancy Pelosi in to fundraise for him,” NRCC spokesman Ian Prior told PoliticsPA. “Just a few weeks later, however, Parrish has seen first-hand how difficult it is running straight into the massive headwinds caused by Obamacare. It’s certainly understandable that he would want to jump ship.”

April 10th, 2014 | Posted in Congress, Front Page Stories, Top Stories | 4 Comments

4 thoughts on “PA-6: Sabato Declares Open Seat “Leans Republican””

  1. Barricks Einwohner:
    Why would there be? The dude had only recently switched parties and the DCCC. courtesy of Steve Israel, tried to foist him upon PA-06. Glad that didn’t work out.

  2. Barricks Einwohner says:

    Mike Parrish attended the Berks County Democratic Standing Committee meeting in February and there was not much enthusiasm in the room.

  3. Ian Prior said what? says:

    Ian Prior said: NRCC spokesman Ian Prior told PoliticsPA. “Just a few weeks later, however, Parrish has seen first-hand how difficult it is running straight into the massive headwinds caused by Obamacare. It’s certainly understandable that he would want to jump ship.”

    Really???

    Mr. Prior, remember all the money Parrish gave Republicans? And then Parrish “jumped ship” because (as any good businessman would, stopped throwing good money after bad!) and saw the massive headwind caused by Republicans closing our government, etc., etc., and JUMPED SHIP FROM THE REPUBLICAN PARTY because of their crazy ideology?

    Earth to Ian Prior, Earth to Ian Prior…

  4. NEWLIBERAL_LION says:

    The Florida election means nothing. Gimme a break!

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