Pennsylvania’s Eighth Congressional District is the quintessential example of a toss-up seat.
The district itself went for Mitt Romney by just 255 votes thanks to the rural section of Upper Montgomery County that was added after the latest round of redistricting. Bucks County, the whole of which represents the rest of the district, went for Barack Obama by 3,942 votes.
Below, I’ve created a map of the 2012 presidential contest in PA-8 broken down by voter district. Sky blue signifies Obama received 50%-53%, royal blue signifies Obama received 53%-58%, blue signifies Obama received 58%-63%, navy signifies Obama received 63% or more. Light salmon signifies Romney received 50%-53%, tomato signifies Romney received 53%-58%, red signifies Romney received 58%-63%, maroon signifies Romney received 63% or more. One voting district was actually tied (every vote matters people!) and is colored yellow.
As you can see, Upper Bucks is generally Republican while Lower Bucks is almost universally Democratic. The Montgomery County section is also pretty red with the exception of Hatfield. Pres. Obama was able to win most of Bucks’ cities like Doylestown, New Hope, Quakertown and Warminster regardless of geography.
Santarsiero’s Path
In the 2012 election, State Rep. Steve Santarsiero shared a ballot with Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in the 31st legislative district. He easily won re-election over GOP nominee Anne Chapman by a 57.74% to 42.26% margin.
You can see a comparison of the presidential contest and Santarsiero’s race below:
Santarsiero dominated across the board (the Republican Upper Makefield sections were drawn out of the 31st after redistricting and parts of Democratic Morrisville were added) performing much stronger in Newtown and Lower Makefield than the President did.
So how does Brian Fitzpatrick counter this?
As I’ve noted before, the best way would be through his birthplace, Levittown. He should aim to cut into Democratic Falls Township and swing over Middletown.
Even at his brother’s lowest point, his narrow loss to Patrick Murphy in 2006, Mike Fitzpatrick still won Middletown.
There’s a reason why Brian Fitzpatrick chose to introduce himself with a video about his childhood in Levittown, including his experience as a Middletown Little Leaguer, that was titled “Levittown Values, American Values.”
Ultimately, though, this race should be so close that it will actually come down to which side runs a better campaign in the months ahead and deploys the best turnout operation on Election Day. What a novel concept.
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11 Responses
I’m a lifelong Republican. Fitzpatrick hasn’t shown his face in PA in years. He is a disconnected carpetbagger who can’t serve the people of this district because he is not one of them. In his five minute intro video he spends more time talking about getting hit in the face with a baseball in 1986 and how it was a “life-changing” event than he does about any single issue impacting the voters of our district. He comes off as an angry white man longing for his glory days in Catholic school.
**Brian: the world has changed and its time to move on. We have serious problems and you have no solutions or strategies to solve them. I wish you well in whatever you choose to do with your life, but representing me in Congress is something I cannot let happen and I will not be voting for you .
Bucks GOP should put an ad out showing Santarsiero’s household income (400,000? 500,000?) compared to the average Bucks family’s income. An out-of-touch and elitist Harrisburg insider vs. freedom fighting Fitzpatrick. Presidential year will help Dems a little but that’s game set match.
White-shoe law firms will be happy to pickup career-politician Santarsiero.
@ZakreyBissell Ryan Gallagher is a drunk. Soon the people of the 31st will know that. Go to the Temperance House Hotel in Newtown any night of the week he will be there drinking his life away.
Good try ex-Patrick Murphy staffer Nick Fields. Man you just love Santarsiero don’t you. Fitzpatrick may not win by 10, but he wins easy.
I think for Democrat Steve Santarsiero will win this congressional seat in 2016, and Republican Nominee Ryan Gallagher wins the Pennsylvania State House seat is being vacated by Steve Santarsiero a Democrat in 2016 as well.
Morons who post “[Blank] by [number],” if anyone cared about your predictive ability you’d be writing the article at the top of the page, not the open comments section below. If you’re so sure, put some money on the prediction markets. Make a killing at that, then maybe someone will care what you think the numbers will be.
Quakerville is not a place (at least not in Bucks County), the borough is named Quakertown.
The GOP has a 4,000 voter registration advantage, but based on 2012 turnout, a 15,000 voter advantage (purely by party registration).
The independents will be about 45,000 voters.
Are there enough DEM leaning R’s and Indy to cost the GOP the seat?
Tomato?
I wonder what Santarsiero will do when he loses. I’m sure he can get a job with a law firm. Better make sure he has an updated resume. Fitz by at least 10.