PA-Gov: Keystone Report/Magellan Strategies Survey: Corbett Within 7 Points

Tom-Corbett-portrait-loresThis week, Magellan Strategies released the results of a PA-Gov poll commissioned by the Keystone Report, a conservative PA news site.

The poll surveyed 1,214 likely Pennsylvania voters via automated calls following Governor Corbett’s recent attack advertisements. 46% of the poll’s respondents identified themselves as Democrats, 43% as Republican, and 10% as independent, according to Magellan.

Among voters who say they have definitely decided upon a candidate, Governor Corbett’s vote percentage has improved to within 7 points of York County businessman Tom Wolf’s numbers. 35.9% of respondents favored Wolf, while 28.6% favored Corbett. 12% still remain undecided.

The crucial missing percentage is the 24% of PA likely voters polled who responded that they are leaning toward a candidate. These “leaners” will make the difference in November, as the two crucial questions will be whether they turn out to vote, and if so whom they ultimately mark on the ballot.

Magellan Strategies finds that Wolf’s lead expands to 12 when leaners are included. 50.3% support Wolf, 38.1% support Corbett, and 11.6% are still undecided.

A CBS/New York Times survey released last week also evidenced that Governor Corbett may be overcoming his polling deficit. The online scientific poll reported that Wolf holds a 43% to 33% lead over Gov. Corbett. Although, once again, when leaners were included the challenger’s lead widened to fourteen points.

These numbers still show a marked improvement for the Governor from earlier this year when Franklin and Marshall, Quinnipiac, and PPP all found Wolf to be holding a lead of over twenty points.

Meanwhile, Jon Geeting of the progressive news site Keystone Progress attempted to pour cold water on the idea that Gov. Corbett is building momentum. Geeting argues that Republicans are simply returning to their nominee and that polling averages still have Wolf at the magic 50% marker.

At this point, we have a tale of two races and it will be highly intriguing to see if further polling can give us a clearer idea of the current electoral landscape.

15 thoughts on “PA-Gov: Keystone Report/Magellan Strategies Survey: Corbett Within 7 Points

  1. Julian-
    “And considering that most registered voters don’t actually vote (only 14% of Dems and 17% of Rebubs turned out to vote in the last PA primary)”

    You need to get your facts straight. In PA primary (May 2014), Dem turnout was over 22% (more than 50% higher than the number you just stated).

    But, remember, Corbett’s support among Republicans and Independents is very weak.

    Wolf’s strategy is basically to say very little, besides that he is not Corbett. This will be accompanied by plenty of ads reminding voters how badly Corbett has performed in office. This election is a referendum on Corbett (who has record-low approval ratings). All Wolf has to do is not self-destruct and speak in English.

  2. @David Diano, you would suggest we rely on the data provided by ultra liberal Terry Madonna’s polls? You like his numbers better? For the record, the Megellan poll, is the first that used a representative sample–that is one taken from a population of folks who actually go out and vote (likely voters). Madonna’s poll, on the other hand, used a sample taken from a population of “registered” voters. And considering that most registered voters don’t actually vote (only 14% of Dems and 17% of Rebubs turned out to vote in the last PA primary), a poll that takes its sample from them is hardly a picture of how likely voters are leaning. Registered voters have an entirely different information level, and therefore different triggers and leanings. You don’t have to like the numbers or the narrative, but please. Let’s get real here.

  3. guevonore corbit aint trailing by nothing, cuz all the poles being done only ask a few people who they gonna vote for and aint no doubt most people gonna vote to keep govenore corbitt in his job when they actually go to vote in a few months but aint no poles gonna be able to know exctly how big corbits land slide gonna be but he gonna definitely win cuz that how it works I penna, repubs are guv for 8 yrs then democs are guv for 8 yrs.

  4. Regardless how flawed the poll is it it now August and Corbett is trailing by more than 5 points in a flawed poll. Tom wolf hasn’t done much of anything and this is the best Corbett can do? Just wait till wolf starts spending some serious money. I can say this in mercer county tom wolf is going to win by 10+. That will most likely echo across the commonwealth.

  5. its always amusing seeing people ignore all logic and seeing what they really want to see. Do you guys respond to those emails from Nigerian Princes who need help with their bank accounts?

  6. @ Tony:

    The previously-articulated take-home-message is unchanged when one enlarges Wolf’s lead to 12% as you suggest; this is half of what it had been a month ago.

  7. How unfortunate that PoliticsPA would repeat a false headline. The Magellan headline “Corbett Within Single Digits” could not be more misleading. The “single digit” lead of 7 points is among voters who have already decided on a candidate. The real headline should have been written based on the most significant number in the poll – among likely voters, Wolf leads by 12. Only when your candidate is losing so badly does a friendly pollster have to carefully construct a misleading headline around an irrelevant statistic to keep your donors from bolting the race.

  8. the only pole that counts is the one on electon Day and guveonor corbitt is defnitly gonna win in a land slide there aint no dout about it and that’s cuz in penna. the way it works is repubs. get 8 yrs than democ. get 8 yrs and so fourth.

  9. 1) poll commissioned by the Keystone Report, a conservative PA news site.

    2) What is their “likely” voter model?

    3) “Undecided voters should break disproportionally toward Corbett. Among the 12% who are undecided, 50% are registered GOP while 36% are registered Democrat.”

    Umm… the gap favoring Wolf among decided and leaners is already 12%. So, it doesn’t really matter how the undecideds break. However, having so many GOP undecideds is actually BAD news for Corbett as they are clearly looking for an alternative to Corbett and waiting to see how Wolf stacks up side-by-side (ie, the debates and October ads)

  10. The take-home message, here, is that the race is [predictably] tightening.

  11. “Among voters who say they have definitely decided upon a candidate”

    anyone care to guess which word makes this poll result different from the others?

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