Another poll, another piece of bad news for Governor Corbett.
This, however, might be the worst piece of polling news yet.
Quinnipiac, the only out-of-state nonpartisan polling institution that has done surveys of this race, released their latest results this morning. 59% of likely voters support Democratic nominee Tom Wolf while just 35% support Republican Governor Tom Corbett.
The challenger is leading the incumbent by 24 points. This advantage is actually an increase from the twenty point lead Wolf held in Quinnipiac’s June poll.
Even worse, this poll is among likely voters as surveys of likely voters tend to favor Republicans while surveys of registered voters tend to favor Democrats.
Breakdown
Breaking the poll down by groups and issues provides little solace to the Corbett campaign.
Wolf leads 53% to 39% among independents while capturing 91% of Democrats and a surprising 28% of Republicans.
Nor can the Corbett-Cawley team console themselves with the fact that over fifty days remain until the election. 84% of voters say their mind is already made up compared to just 15% who might change their mind.
In terms of issues the voters found to be the most important, they broke down this way: 32% said economy/jobs, 25% responded education, 17% cited government spending and 15% listed taxes.
Wolf leads all these categories: 58-34 on the economy and jobs, 61-29 on education, 54-38 on government spending, even 50-41 on taxes.
Views on the Candidates
The Democrat also leads Corbett on all questions of character traits.
By a 54% to 21% margin, voters think Wolf is honest and trustworthy. For Corbett, it is an even 43% to 43% split.
58% believe Wolf cares about their needs and problems compared to just 27% who say he doesn’t. Only 35% of voters think that Corbett cares while a distressing 56% believe he doesn’t.
Lastly, 61% say Wolf has strong leadership qualities while only 18% counter that he does not. Corbett’s 50% to 42% margin is much smaller.
Perhaps most worrying for the Governor’s campaign, though, are the following numbers.
51% of Wolf backers say their support is primarily a vote against the Governor. Furthermore, 50% of respondents view the Democratic nominee favorably while just 22% view him unfavorably.
Governor Corbett, however, is viewed favorably by just 33% of respondents while 55% have an unfavorable view of him.
“A stunningly bad showing for Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett who is clobbered across the board on issues, leadership and other character traits by a candidate who was unknown to most voters earlier this year,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
“What’s Tom Corbett’s biggest problem?,” Malloy asks and answers. “Tom Corbett.”
This Quinnipiac Poll surveyed 1,161 likely voters from September 3rd to 8th and involved live interviews via landlines and cell phones. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9%.
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19 Responses
I voted for Mr Fudd. I would say this Corbett is going to lose the election..
You all need to read and understand the wisdom of Chris Martinez. Heck, Wolfe has no chance. A great political guru is in our midst and you all do not even realize it.
He’s gone where the goblins go – below, below, below. Yo-ho, let’s open up and sing and ring the bells out. Ding dong the merry-o, sing it high, sing it low. Let them know the Tom Corbett is dead,
I would hope that President Romney and US Attorney General Karl Rove would call for an immediate federal investigation of these bogus polls that are showing Tom Wolf with a double digit lead over Tom Corbett. I think we need to see Tom Wolf’s birth certificate too.
Eh, if you honestly believe Tom Wolf is going to be a good governor you are just as dumb as the people who think Corbett has a shot. Different color kool aid.
B.J. – looks like you got your wish… pretty sure the only reason that other article on the YouGov poll was written is because of your comment!
BJ – Yeah, it’s part of the liberal conspiracy. Ignore the many independent polls using traditional methodology that has worked in Pennsylvania for years because they show Wolf beating Corbett by 24% or more, and focus all of your attention on the one poll using non-traditional methodology (not used by any other pollster) because it shows the incumbent Governor losing by 11% with less than 2 months left. I’m glad we kept you out of the conspiracy. Other than reading them on a website, on the news or in a newspaper, have you ever interpreted and worked with polls before? Probably not.
Thomas – Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah, waaaaaaaaaaaah, waaaaaaaaaaaaaaah. Crying now, will be crying louder on November 4, and will still be crying louder in a few years. You’re guy is going to lose, learn to deal with it.
The underlying issue no one talks about is Penn State. Penn Stater’s will not forget Corbett’s role in the whole Sandusky mess. It’s an albatross about ole Tom’s neck.
Diano…You must be a teacher .Your PSEA Union gave Wolf $550,000 to protect your insane pension and benefits.
Wolf is a limousine liberal pushing Obama’s agenda.. The hell with him and the teachers union.
Seems about right that Nick wrote a story on this poll but not the CBS/NYT poll that showed an 11 point race.
Going for title of PA’s top liberal blogger?
if john wolfe gets elected he aint gonna be a bad guevnor, but he aint gonna be electd cuz guovnor corbitt has bean a good guv and dats why he gonna win anuther term, plus the way it work in penna is each partie gets to be guv for 8 yrs each than the other guy can be guv for 8 yrs.,
And Tom Wolf will be seeing equally bad poll numbers in four years. Bad candidate and will be a bad governor.
“See Kane v Freed November 2012 as the precursor to the current Republican debacle.”-bob g
I feel this should have been the first warning flag for Corpbutt. Tom was to smug to see it.
“There is a reason for this debacle and it begins with Republican’s failure to articulate policies and implement them.”- DD
While I feel this is a gigantic part of the republican party not being my Dad’s republican party, Corpbutt numbers are on Tom. He has been so self-serving that he forgot to take care of Pennsylvania. Specifically children, the poor, the middle class, and the weakest among us.
Mr. Corpbutt you reap what you sow.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=You%20Reap%20What%20You%20Sow
I love reading that Tom Corbetts biggest problem is Tom Corbett.
Well, I for one think American Crossroads and AFP and the Koch Brotheres should put at least another ten million into this race! That IS their track record, isn’t it? I bet they can get that margin well under 20 points if they spend enough!
Question: Who is still giving Corbett any money? Why not just light your money on fire?
Bob-
The problem is not the Republican’s inability to articulate/implement their policies. The problem is that they have the wrong policies and priorities.
They don’t support fully funding public education and having a good public transportation system. They don’t support higher minimum wages. They don’t support women’s health, including access to abortion and contraception. They don’t support renewable energy over fossil fuels. They don’t support a fair progressive tax policy that makes the rich pay an appropriate share.
Their ideas are all failures of leadership and government.
The Republican base remembers Corbett’s “Gas Tax”.
See Kane v Freed November 2012 as the precursor to the current Republican debacle.
As I said, I have as much of a chance of winning in November as Tom Corbett and I would not have spent millions and millions in an obviously failed effort.
There is a reason for this debacle and it begins with Republican’s failure to articulate policies and implement them.