The news just keeps getting worse for Governor Tom Corbett.
A new survey conducted by the Robert Morris University Polling Institute found that Tom Wolf holds a 55.5% to 24.7% lead over Tom Corbett. This RMU poll (which was “powered” by Trib Total Media) shows the largest deficit yet for the incumbent, totaling more than thirty points.
The poll found 19.8% of respondents were undecided. When those people were asked if they were leaning towards a particular candidate Wolf’s margin grew to 60.3% to 28.6%. Just 12.9% stayed undecided.
The Democratic nominee holds a lead across all age and racial groups.
RMU political scientist Philip Harold went so far as to say “time has just about run out for Corbett.”
“While a sizable chunk of voters has yet to choose a candidate to support, there are not enough undecided voters to make the difference for Corbett,” said Harold, the associate dean of the School of Education and Social Sciences at Robert Morris. “And among those who did choose a candidate, only 14 percent said they could change their minds easily. Among undecided voters who lean towards a candidate, Wolf is their choice by 2-to-1.”
The RMU poll also found that most of the undecideds in their survey were Republicans, indicating that Corbett is having significant trouble with his base.
“Simply put, there is no enthusiastic base of support for Governor Corbett to rely on come Election Day,” Harold concluded.
Interestingly, they did find that an association with President Obama would hurt Wolf with about 29% of independent voters. The Corbett-Cawley camp are clearly banking on this connection to gin up support at least among their base voters. For instance, their latest TV ad asserted that Wolf would be like a “third term” for the President.
Reports from Politico and NBC News indicate that President Obama intends to visit PA during the fall, although it is unknown where he will campaign or who he will appear with.
This poll sampled 500 Pennsylvanians by online survey. It was conducted from August 18 to 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5%.
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17 Responses
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Beginning with Kane’s shellacking of Corbett’s hand-picked hack, Dave Freed, there is not one single poll showing Tom Corbett winning in November. Even his self-serving internal poll shows him losing in November.
Tom Corbett broke his “No New Taxes; No New Fees” promises to those who voted for him in 2010. Blatantly and openly betraying the base that put you in office is not a way to win re-election. This is known as the Brabender Santorum strategy.
I have a feeling, though, that Tom Wolf may be a Democratic Tom Corbett. The very smart and intellectual Wolf may be eaten by the Harrisburg sharks of both parties.
FYI Unless indicted Dwight Evans will be Tom Wolf’s go to guy in Philadelphia. That should tell you what you need to know.
Sorry but I have the luxury of looking at these surveys objectively. What I don’t have is a shitty blog with space to fill. Good luck with the whole “I dont care if I am wrong” thing though.
Oh right, Doug is still living in the “Romney in a Landslide” mantra.
There should have been wider sampling in this poll, but what’s the use? Wolf is over the magical 50% in every poll I’ve seen, so this is not even a real contest.
The R’s should be very concerned about the enthusiasm gap at the top of the ticket, and its implications for down-ticket races. That’s the real story here. Governors race: Over.
Id disagree with you if not for your totally convincing argument of “i said so”
Doug:
“this survey is trash. 500 “Pennsylvanians”? Come on.”
It’s statistics, and there’s a science to it.
Wolf’s new 47 page platform is called “A FRESH START”. This is Obama ‘s Hope and Change ALL OVER AGAIN. Does Wolf think were stupid??? This platform should be called the bleeding heart chronicles. Wolf got the balls to want campaign donations limited to $5000 for PERSONAL donors. But its OK that he took $500,000 from the PSEA. to bolster his campaign coffers. Its OK for Teachers Unions to support Democratic candidates so they get their pensions protected and benefits protected.
Folks…Don’t get fleeced by this limousine liberal. Wolf can take his 47 page platform and use it for toilet paper because thats all its worth.This guy is a fraud….just like Obama.
bob guzzardi has been called the Edmond burke of pa. he is an honest leader dishonored by a dishonest party.
Does Corbett even want to be governor?
Why did the PAGOP clear the field for this clown and not consider Gerlach, Meehan or Scranton Jr. instead?
Guess I’ll be writing in “Bob Guzzardi.”
while I have no desire to see Corbett succeed and I honestly think a bigger blowout will let his inner circle know what complete failures they are and have been for the last 3 years, this survey is trash. 500 “Pennsylvanians”? Come on.
guvenir corbit is guna win in a land slyde these polls are all lies and hes been a great guvenir for penna
This is obviously a plot by the corbett campaign to turn out the Sympathy Vote in November. I mean, who really wants their sitting governor to lose by 30 points?? I predict the margin will close to near 20 by Election day.
The big broadcasters like Comcast can NOT be happy about these numbers – a close race means lots of big ad buys, but in this race we see buys being canceled left and right (by which I mean Democrat and Republican). I predict a slew of anti-Wolfe headlines to be manufactured by local TV news departments, just to get those election-ad revenues up. Big Media HATES a blowout!
Like Rick Santorum, Tom Corbett walks to his own open grave thanks to `team Brabender.
Jesus he was a handsome man. What do you think of your blueeyed boy now Mr. Death?
“Simply put, there is no enthusiastic base of support for Governor Corbett to rely on come Election Day,” Harold concluded.
WOW!
“RMU political scientist Philip Harold went so far as to say “time has just about run out for Corbett.”
Say it aint so!
I cannot wait for the debates, which may be Corbutt’s last stand.