The University of Virginia political scientist along with co-authors Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley say the Guv’s low poll numbers and serious Democratic opposition make Pa. a state to watch.
Here’s their analysis from the Crystal Ball:
Pennsylvania: A recent Franklin & Marshall College poll summed up Gov. Tom Corbett’s (R) troubles in the Keystone State: With only 26% of voters saying that Corbett is doing an “excellent” or “good” job, “Corbett’s job performance ratings are the lowest for a sitting governor in the [18-year] history” of the poll. Piling on, Quinnipiac recently found that only 49% of Republicans in Pennsylvania thought Corbett deserved to be reelected. Corbett’s troubles may open the door for Montgomery County Commissioner Bruce Castor (R) to take on the incumbent in the GOP primary. As for the Democratic side of the aisle, numerous names have been bandied about but so far the biggest ones have yet to get into the contest. However, it looks like at least one of those major names, Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D), will soon announce a run. Other Democratic possibilities include state Treasurer Rob McCord and ex-Reps. Joe Sestak and Kathy Dahlkemper. Interestingly, since the 1940s the two major parties have consistently switched control of the governorship every eight years. While Corbett has major problems, history may be on his side since he was just elected in 2010. But these “rules” of politics get broken sooner or later, and Corbett is sorely testing this rule. TOSS-UP.