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PA-Sen: McGinty Has 18% or 46% Chance of Victory

Pennsylvania Governor DemocratsDepending on how you look at it, Senate Democratic nominee Katie McGinty has an 18% or 46% of victory at the moment.

That’s the conclusion of Harry Enten of FiveThirtyEight, who projected the results in each of the 34 Senate races this November.

“What’s the deal with the two probabilities for this seat? If you look at all polls taken in the first half of this year, Democrats have an 18 percent chance of winning,” Enten writes. “If you look only at the one poll taken since McGinty won the Democratic nomination in late April, they have a 46 percent chance.”

That poll was the Quinnipiac survey that showed Toomey leading by a point, 45% to 44%.

“That Toomey has led in every single poll is likely a testament to his skill as a politician,” Enten continues. “He’s one of the most conservative members of the U.S. Senate and represents a state that hasn’t voted for the Republican in a presidential election since George H.W. Bush won there in 1988. Toomey had a +15 percentage point net approval rating in the most recent Quinnipiac University poll. He also has a cash-on-hand advantage over McGinty of more than $8 million.”

Since Pennsylvania has shown signs that it may be trending red, Clinton’s performance will likely make the difference for McGinty on November 8th.

“For McGinty to win, the formula is simple,” Enten concludes. “First, she must hold on to her post-nomination polling bounce. Second, Clinton has to keep her advantage over Trump in the presidential election (she hasn’t trailed in a single statewide poll of Pennsylvania this year), and her voters have to also pull the lever for McGinty.”

51 Responses

  1. That’s the guy. Doesn’t know how long senators serve for. That he had to rip off my name tells you how much I must’ve hurt him. Waaaa!

  2. 11:53 is not me. I’m guessing it’s the D troll that everyone watched me OWN yesterday and has had his comments deleted today. I’m with Isaac and think calling people retard is sick.

  3. After looking it up, it sounds like JFK himself used that and may have been quoting one Orlando Battista.

  4. Thank you – it was one of those insults we threw around a lot growing up, not thinking anything of it. I’m ashamed of that behavior and was educated by an impressive, brilliant, and selfless woman who works with children with intellectual and developmental disabilities. After meeting and spending time with some, it becomes apparent that they have been wrongly stereotyped in our culture, and are capable of a lot more than we give them credit for. Just because it may take someone more time than average to learn something or express themselves, it does not make them inferior or less deserving of our respect. It’s not about being “Politically Correct,” it’s just plain good manners and basic human decency.

    I’m sad to see some posters doubling down rather than doing the right thing by admitting they were wrong and moving forward. We could use a lot more of that in our discourse. I’m reminded of a poster that used to hang in the hallway of my elementary school way back when: “an error doesn’t become a mistake until you refuse to correct it.” There’s nothing wrong with admitting our errors; in fact, it’s the nobler course. I’m not always great at it myself, but I respect it when I see it.

  5. Good post, Isaac.

    Anyone who has witnessed the pain and guilt that is felt by a disabled individual once he becomes aware of the dehumanization would especially agree with you.

  6. Thank Isaac, but you’re talking to a Kane-loving Democrat. There’s only one and there’s no reasoning with them.

  7. Republican, Democrat, independent, whatever, using “retard” as a slur is completely unacceptable – it inherently implies that someone with an intellectual or developmental disability is stupid, which is flat out false, and it dehumanizes them. The English language offers a rich palette of words from which to craft vibrant, amusing, and biting insults without resorting to hate speech against individuals with IDDs. Using “retard” as an insult says a lot more about the person using it than the person it’s direct against. Please be considerate of individuals with IDDs and their friends, family, and loved ones.

    This Shakespearean insult generator ought to put anyone off to a good start: http://www.pangloss.com/seidel/Shaker/index.html?

  8. I’d say that’s a rather optimistic forecast of McGinty’s chances.

  9. That time, when someone who thinks that U.S. Senators serve 4-year terms calls you the R word…

    LOL

  10. LOL … The RETARD troll thinks I am his RETARD son. He is coming unglued again.

  11. Hahahardon admitted to being Pat Unger. He also doesn’t know that U.S. Senators serve 6-year terms. If someone posted as “Pat Unger” you could have had it deleted, but, you know you’re lying…again.

    Your offensive stuff gets deleted All, The, Time.

    #OwnedAgainSon

  12. And now he is using “Pat Unger, “Marie,” and “Kraig ” to type stupid stuff. All because he knows he is OWNED. I almost feel sorry for him. But then I remember that he is a pedophile.

  15. Are you seriously that dumb, Publius??

    Wow!! McGinty is running for the US Senate. And she will beat the TEA-guzzling, do-nothing midget.

  19. Oh no, this is getting repetitive, but it looks like the Democrat troll, my groupie troll, has had his comments deleted again. Of course, Pat Unger’s comment asserting that U.S. Senators serve 4-year terms remains up, because well, you can’t fix stupid. #Winning

  20. The numbers are absurd. 18 or 46? Why not just say 50/50. It is a meaningless observation.

    Toomey scored some points on the issue of McGinty going to college first in her family. It was an odd claim to be wrong about for her and got a lot of media.

  22. These trolls need to be deleted. It is clear one person is posting as spongebob, unsanctioned, now kraig and William Stauffer. It gets old. And he isn’t even clever or interesting.

  23. Oh look … He spelled “kraig” correctly after he switched over from “Pat Unger” and “Unsanctioned R(etard)”

  26. The polls/odds prior to the primary are meaningless, because they had McGinty 10 points behind Sestak, and were so far off as to be useless (and completely out of date as well).

    Toomey is suffering a case of the “trumps” (it’s like the mumps, only you can’t get rid of it before November). Also, Toomey looks like a partisan hack for not wanted to give Obama’s pick a hearing.

    Pepper-

    Most Sestak supporters have already moved on. Katie beat him DECISIVELY with the truth: he is unappealing to voters, especially those sick and tired of his military analogies, stories and incoherent ramblings.

    Katie won with endorsements and positive ads (including lots of mailers from environmental PAC).

    Sestak had a two year and nearly $2 million head start, and was about as appealing as a case of herpes.

  27. I used to be jealous that Ha3 had his own stalker troll. Now I have one too!!!

  31. kraig, Rep and Pepper are all the same pathetic person. The one Ha3 OWNS just about everyday here. Poor thing. His wife even comes on here complaining about him. She thinks he is gay and obsessed with David and Ha3. Seems she might be right.

  32. McGinty has an 80% chance of winning although ther is only a 40% chance of that.

    People are tired of lying politicians. Sestak supporters will not forget how she lied about him.

  33. Publius –

    Stupid people don’t know they’re stupid.

    For over a year now, this guy has been calling – maybe rightfully – for heads to roll over interoffice emails that denigrated classes of individuals who happened to be born black, female, etc.

    And what’s his modus operandi for doing so? By making his own stupid jokes that denigrate those who happened to be born disabled. How rich.

  34. Now I see who Ha3 thinks he owned. I think he wants to be embarrassed again. FYI there are multiple Rep trolls and you’re the only Dem troll, however all the Dems but Publius are cool with the retard name calling. Try going outside sometime.

  37. The poor troll has abandoned all the screen-names he used while Ha3 OWNED him. Never seen someone OWNED quite as bad as Ha3 OWNED UnsanctionedSpongeR(etard).

  40. Yes, Marie. It’s the same FOXtard Repervlican troll. Best to just call him names.

  41. Marie, Publius isn’t a Republican at all. He’s someone who thinks smart people don’t write like teenagers. Bungy, why should I care what PA Parent calls his kid? I was talking about you, and I’d have hoped you’d be smarter. (And way to go with that “STFU” comment. Very eloquent.)

  44. bungy, if you want to say that Pa Parent’s comment is dumb, maybe you could just do that instead of unnecessarily insulting a whole lot of people who aren’t your real target. It would make your comment seem more intelligent.

  46. FiveThirtyEight needs to learn the difference between speculation and objective handicapping. They pass themselves off as oddsmakers/statisticians, but they aren’t once they inject amateurish speculation into their formula. Look how badly they botched the Trump forecast. If Toomey’s lead truly is only 45-44 (according to Quinnipiac) he is a goner come November. Those are horrible numbers for an incumbent, even an under-the-radar freshman like Toomey.

  47. PA Parent stop trying to make that a thing. It’ll never be a thing…

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